Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Wednesday, December 28, 2011 at 4:55 PM
The average bettor considers bookmakers to be super brains of the sports betting world but the sharp bettors prove them human day after day and nothing illustrates this more that the successful attack on National Basketball Association (NBA) totals. First it was big action on the "under" and then overnight it shifted to knockout bets on the "over".
The past two days saw the smart money again come in on the "under" as it has since the season began Sunday. After seeing the sharps go "under" in seven games and go 6-0-1 against the numbers, bookmakers must have figured they were a bit off base and major shifts downward in their totals lines.
Bingo, the sharp bettors, forever the experts on outrunning the numbers, bombed the bookmakers with an avalanche of wagers on the "overs". By mid-day Wednesday, the wiseguys had made six totals bets-five on the "over" and one on the "under" (Cleveland at Detroit) For the record, here were the early totals plays for Wednesday.
Washington-Atlanta over 185½
Indiana-Toronto over 193
Cleveland-Detroit under 189
New York-Golden State over 203
Miami-Charlotte over 188
Boston-New Orleans over 176½
There are two important lessons in the moves by the sharpest bettors in the world. First, they are just as sharp as the best bookmaker and line-maker and have the figures to spot any weakness in any line, side or total. More important is the fact they have nothing but respect for all betting lines-something 99% of the betting public does not have.
The average bettor who wants to make a bet refuses to see the difference between 6½ and 7, or between a total of 185 and 186½. In a world ruled by points and half points, the slightest edge often makes the difference between winning and losing.
Thus it is not one bit unusual to head the other way when bookmakers shift their numbers a point or two. That is just how much they respect betting lines-the real enemy of all who wager on sports.
The bookmakers' shift is an admission the sharps are sharper than they are right now, and this certainly remains a battle of wits until further notice.
Money Continues To Come In On Alabama
The betting money continues to come in on Alabama (11-1) in the BCS championship game in New Orleans, Monday, January 9. This time it comes from a "following" public. The Tide's showdown game with undefeated LSU (13-0) opened as a pick'em and, after staying there for several days, moved to the Crimson Tide -1 as some of the world's most respected big bettors took the Tide, forcing bookmakers to move the number.
The number remains Alabama -1 at most books, but several opened the game Wednesday morning with Alabama -1 ½ as the public followed the sharp money and placed their early bets on the Tide.
Food for thought: LSU as a 5 ½-point underdog beat Alabama 9-6 in overtime in Tuscaloosa November 5 and this time gets the Crimson Tide at the Superdome in New Orleans in which is somewhat of a home game for the Tigers. Baton Rouge is just 80 miles from the Dome and you can take it to the bank LSU devotees will find a way to make up the majority of the crowd. As I said-just food for thought.
There are wall-to-wall bowl games right through the BCS title contest and the one basic requirement of all bettors is to make certain the same team they saw during the regular season is the one they will get in the post-season. Several key players are out with injuries and several others have been declared academically ineligible. It takes up too much space to list all of them here but you can keep up with all these changes by going to each team's website.
Rhode Island In Suicide Run
There is a reason behind the success or failure of any college basketball team, and some of them are not obvious to outsiders. When teams that should win, or at least be respectable, do not or are not, more often than not something negative is going on-something hidden from all but the insiders.
Take the cash or Rhode Island. This is a team that has won 20 or more games the past four seasons and finds itself a stunning 1-11 and things are going to get worse now that leading scorer, senior guard Jamal Wilson, has been kicked off the team for violating team rules, whatever that means.
Coach Jim Baron, who has been at Rhode Island since 2001, said it was for being repeatedly late for team meetings but there has to be more to it than that. You don't give the boot to a guy averaging 16.4 points, especially when your team is 1-11 and your only win came against Hofstra, 85-73, on a night the planets were in perfect alignment, helping you to hit 56.6% from the floor.
I am not a Rhody insider and have no idea the sins of Wilson but when one puts together the complete body of work by this basketball team something is terribly wrong. Take it to the bank-the worst is yet to come.
Boston College Lucky To Be 5-7
Boston College was picked to finish 12th and last in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, so, maybe the Eagles are lucky to be 5-7 at this point of the season. This is a team trying to compete in one of the best basketball conferences in the country with a squad made up of nine freshmen and three other players who have but minutes of game experience.
At this writing Boston College has an RPI rating of 258 (344 schools are rated) while playing the 197th toughest schedule in the country.
Bettors need to selectively use the Eagles as a go-against team, especially when it hits the SEC road, a treacherous under-taking any day of the week. Freshman dominated teams simply do not win on the road in this conference.
BC coach Steve Donahue went 21-13 in his first season at BC and took the Eagles to the NIT. He knows he has talent among his five freshmen but he will be the first to admit it will be a major task for BC to win 10 games this season. Just keep in mind, it is the coach saying this.
A Major Big Game Menu Change
The betting menu is loaded with opportunities to cash some big tickets this week and there has been one major change made. This Sunday I have increased my NFL Finale Game of the Year to 200 units, up from the advertised 100. The opportunity is there to break the bank and I'm going for it.
Keep in mind on Monday I will be releasing my 200-unit College Bowl Game of the Year.
This is the first time I can recall ever releasing 200-unit plays on back-to-back days and I am quite confident I will win both of them.
Winning football and basketball is on this site and toll free at 1-800-7755 every single day-and the price is always right. All major credit cards accepted.