Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM
Bettors understand the sweat element of betting and overlook the fact bookmakers sometimes find themselves trapped and looking for a miracle-and that is just the case with today's Super Bowl between the New York Giants (12-7) and the New England Patriots (15-3). When the sun came over the mountains in Las Vegas at 6:29 this morning, every single sports book in town was loaded with New York Giants action, with 65% of all the tickets written on the underdog.
It must be noted that the 65% figure represents tickets written and does not necessarily represent the amount of money wagered.
New England opened as a 3 ½ to 4-point favorite to win Super Bowl XLVI and currently is -3, with a total of 54 or 53 ½, depending on where you bet. The total opened at 55. The money line is New England -120 and the Giants +140 and 80% of the money line wagers are also on New York.
The Super Bowl, which will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts, is set to kickoff at 6:30 and will be televised on NBC.
Earlier this week three or four Vegas books dropped the betting line to New England -2 ½ for a day in hopes and attracting action on the Patriots and if one shops around one might still find that number.
More than 80% of all Super Bowl bets made in Las Vegas will be made today and bookmakers are hoping New England bettors will show up and send it in. It is going to be interesting to see if the number drops to New England -2 ½ or stays at the -3. Bookmakers face a real dilemma with the number, since most opened at the Patriots -3 ½, and if they drop it to -2 ½ set themselves up to get middled should the final margin fall on three.
Getting middled is a genuine concern since 16.5% of all National Football League games fall on 3 and four of the last 11 (36.0%) ended with a 3-point margin. The second highest percentage for key numbers is the rather obvious 7, which happens 8.27% of the time.
For those unfamiliar with middles, bookmakers fear them because when hit, bettors collect on both sides in the same game. Here is how a middle would work as related to today's Super Bowl. Let us say a bettor made a wager laying $5,500 to win $5,000 on the New York Giants at the open and got +3 ½. If the number drops to -2 ½, he can come right back and lay it with the Patriots, putting up another $5,500 to win $5,000.
Bettors doing this actually are risking just $500 to win $10,000 since they cannot lose both bets and if the game's final margin they walk away with the $10,000 profit. It's a nightmare for bookmakers. Numbers mean something to bettors and bookmakers.
For the record I am 9-2 with the winning side and 10-1 with the winning total in the last 11 Super Bowls. That means I am 19-3, a winning percentage of 86.4% since the 2001 championship game. Here is what I am doing on the Super Bowl today;
MY Super Bowl Package
200 Units On The Winning Side
25 Units On The Winning Total
25 Units On The Side/Total Parlay
Five 5-Unit Proposition Bets
AND YOU CAN GET IT ALL FOR JUST $50
Charged to You Major Credit Card
I never ask people to buy a pig in a poke, so before getting on board, here is my Super Bowl record in sides and totals for the past 11 years, followed by my Super Bowl offer.
KELSO STURGEON SUPER BOWL RECORD SINCE 2001
19-3 Sides & totals (86.4%)
9-2 Side (81.8%) Totals 10-1 (90.9%)
2011 Super Bowl (1-1)
Green Bay Packers (-2½) 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25 (W)
Under 45 (L)
2010 Super Bowl (2-0)
New Orleans Saints (+5) 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 (W)
Under 57 (W)
2009 Super Bowl (2-0)
Arizona Cardinals (+7) 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 27 (W)
Over 46 (W)
2008 Super Bowl (2-0)
New York Giants (+12) 17, New England Patriots 14 (W)
Under 55 (W)
2007 Super Bowl (1-1)
Chicago Bears (+7) 17, Indianapolis Colts 29 (L)
Under 47½ Points (W)
2006 Super Bowl (1-1)
Seattle Seahawks (+4) 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (L)
Under 46 ½ Points (W)
2005 Super Bowl (2-0)
Philadelphia Eagles (+7) 21, New England Patriots 24 (W)
Under 47 Points (W)
2004 Super Bowl (2-0)
Carolina Panthers (+7) 29, New England Patriots 32 (W)
Over 37 Points (W)
2003 Super Bowl (2-0)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 ½) 48, Oakland 21 (W)
Over 44 Points (W)
2002 Super Bowl (2-0)
New England Patriots (+14) 20, St. Louis Rams 17 (W)
Under 53 Points (W)
2001 Super Bowl (2-0)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) 34, New York Giants 7 (W)
Over 33 (W)
Today's Basketball Betting Menu
It may be Super Bowl Sunday but that does not mean my Personal Best Basketball Club is taking a vacation. I won my 100-Unit College Basketball Blowout Game of the Year last night as California (-17 ½) buried Arizona State 68-47 and am coming right back firing today with another 50-unit college knockout winner, a modest favorite the figures say will win by 15-16 points. I am 15-7 over the past four weeks with my 50-unit plays and a perfect 1-0 in 100-unit games, and intend to improve on that today. Win this knockout college game for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Available on this website and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
The basketball schedule is a bit light today-two games in the NBA and just nine in the colleges-but when putting each game through the handicapping process I came up with two teams that have most of the edges and should get the cash. Win both games for just $15, charged to your major credit card. Available on this website and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.