Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Tuesday, February 7, 2012 at 12:51 PM
Yesterday, I told you about my fantastic 6-0 board sweep on Super Sunday. We can now make that a 9-0 streak thanks to three more winners Monday Night in the baskets. The principals of Advanced Handicapping are hitting on all cylinders at the moment. And, that brings another important principal into play.
Far too many gamblers fail to make the most out of their hot streaks because they want to stop for awhile and bask in the glow of their success. Many bettors are chasing that great feeling you get when you win. When they’re winning, they want to stop or slow down so they can feel like winners.
On the other hand, during losing streaks, bettors keep chasing games because they want to remember what it’s like to feel like a winner. They’ll make bad bets. They’ll make too many bets. And, the losing streak goes on much longer than it should.
Look how those two factors play off each other in the worst possible way with this mindset:
*Winning streaks have fewer plays, and don’t last as long as they should
*Losing streaks have a lot of plays and last too long
All bettors…and I mean ALL bettors will have winning and losing streaks during the course of a season. If you’re focused too much on what “feels right” instead of what’s SMART, you’ll lose money in the long run because those losing streaks cost you a lot more than the winning streaks make you.
That’s why I’m very focused right now on staying aggressive. I didn’t pass the Monday card after enjoying that monster day on Sunday. My clients received these selections:
50-units: Sacramento (+2) beat New Orleans 100-92
25-units: Davidson (-11) beat Wofford 76-54
15-units: Philadelphia (-4.5) beat the LA Lakers 95-90
I’ll admit the Sixers were a bit lucky to pull away late for that cover. But, that was the lightest opinion of the three…and the other two were double digit covers. Davidson led by 17 points at the half! I expected that they would continue their great home play of late with an easy win over an outmatched foe. I also knew that shorthanded New Orleans would have trouble playing 48 good minutes no matter who their opponent was. Too many key contributors are on the injured list for the Hornets.
If you read yesterday’s online article, you know that my big plays in particular have been on fire for a few weeks. I fully expect that to continue through the month of February and March Madness because the principals of Advanced Handicapping are proven winners…and because my longtime experience in the industry allows me to maximize their profit potential.
So, I’m not going to be taking a day off any time soon! I’ll be following these basic guidelines:
*Have respect for the tightness of the lines overall, but be confident that there will be a few mistakes on the board every night. The principals of Advanced Handicapping will help you find those mistakes.
*Don’t be afraid of big favorites…because the college and pro markets have both been underpricing multiple teams in blowout scenarios. I talked about this last week…then you saw me hit my big 100-Unit college play Saturday on California over Arizona State in a cakewalk.
*Take underdogs against teams who are either overrated, undermanned because of injuries, or tired because of fatigue (a big deal in the NBA right now). The market tends to create high hurdles for favorites. It’s hard to clear those hurdles when your legs are gone, or when your best players are in street clothes.
*Stay AGGRESSIVE when things are going this well. When the money is there for the taking, it’s my job (and yours) to go get it. Aggressive doesn’t mean “bet a lot of games.” It means bet the edges you do find for the proper amount of units. The most successful professional wagerers in Las Vegas never stop attacking the soft spots they find. The least successful are too timid during the best of times, and too reckless otherwise.
I’ll be back again for another installment from my College of Advanced Handicapping late this week. Thanks to everyone who’s been attending. I greatly appreciate that so many of you seek out these articles every week as you work on improving your Las Vegas wagering performance.
Don’t forget that you can purchase my red hot basketball selections every day at this website with your credit card. There are some great college games on the schedule this week like Duke-North Carolina, Michigan State-Ohio State, and even San Diego State-UNLV out here in the Mountain West Conference. It’s a great time to get involved if you’ve been hesitant in the past. Nobody in the world is hotter right now than Kelso Sturgeon!