Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Saturday, September 8, 2012 at 1:11 PM
I am pleased to report I have started off this week 3-0 in football, winning outright with two underdogs and getting the cash in the third game in an absolute dominating blowout. I am not saying this to brag but to point out I know what I am doing, keep doing it every day and would bounce right back from a subpar opening weekend.
There are 72 college football games on the schedule today and 67 of them are on national television, available at ESPN3 on your computer or on a local and regional basis. This is a giant weekend in college football, certainly a challenge to handicappers, and at the same time an opportunity to make a small fortune. Keep in mind it is the hard work that uncovers the little edges that will help you win in a world ruled by points and half-points.
Nothing speaks louder than winners and I want to share with you the quality of handicapping that was behind the 3-0 start. Listed below is each game of the 3-0 run with the exact explanation I gave when releasing them on this website.
Friday Night's 25-Unit Winner
UTAH STATE AGGIES (1-0) +7 over Utah Utes (1-0)
Prediction: Utah State by 6-7
Played in Logan, Utah
Played on Merlin Olsen Field at Romney Stadium (25,513) Artificial Turf
Starting Time: 8:05
TV: ESPN2Weather: Clear Skies, game-time temperature in 60s, 26% relative humidity, winds out of the east-southeast at 8 miles per hour.
Comments: This is the 110th meeting between these schools, with the first game dating back to 1892, and it certainly is a big-time rivalry, despite the fact Utah is 12-0 in the last 12 and 20-2 in the last 22 meetings. With that said, a deep analysis of this game says Utah State is ready to stand up and be counted before a sell-out crowd of 25,513. Fourth-year Utah State coach Gary Anderson has quietly rebuilt the Aggies into a competitive team which last season went 7-6 and bowling. That was the team's first winning season since it went 6-5 in 1996 and just its third winning year in the past 20. Last year's results showed just how far Anderson has brought this program after he went 4-8 in his first two seasons. Utah State opened 2011 as a 23 ½-point underdog at defending national champion Auburn and lost by four points, 42-38, after leading most of the way. Then there was the 1-point overtime loss to Colorado State, 35-34, the 3-point loss at BYU, 27-24, and the one-point bowl loss to Ohio, 24-23. In other words, Utah State could easily have been 11-2 last year, with the four losses noted above coming by a total of nine points. That was a practice run for 2012 and all the pieces are now in place for Utah State to have an outstanding season. In tonight's game, the Aggies will have the best two quarterbacks in the game-sophomore starter Chuckie Keeton and his back-up, senior Adam Kennedy-and both can run to perfection the no-huddle, hurry-up offense. The Aggies offense is explosive and last year set school records in total offense (5,945 yards), rushing yards (3,675 yards), total points (437) and touchdowns (60). Utah State opened the season right where it left off in 2011 with a 34-3 win over I-AA Southern Utah and in that game amassed 569 yards of total offense-304 passing and 265 rushing. Keeton accounted for all the passing offense, completing 22-of-25 passes. This is not to suggest Utah will not be in this game, because the Utes obviously have dominated the Aggies and always come to play. A team does not win 12 straight against any opponent by just showing up but tonight Utah State grades out as the better team, despite being an underdog, and the figures say the Aggies will win straight up.
Utah State (+7) 27, Utah 20 (OT) Winner
Thursday Night's 25-Unit Winner
CINCINNATI BEARCATS (0-0) -4 over Pittsburgh Panthers (0-1)
Prediction: Cincinnati by 13-14
Played In Cincinnati
Played at Nippert Stadium (35,000), Artificial Turf
Weather: Game-time temperature of 82, 50% relative humidity, 10% chance of precipitation, wind out of the west at 6 miles per hour.
Comments: I will be the first to admit Pittsburgh's opening-game home loss to I-AA Youngstown State, 31-17, as an 18-point favorite, played a bit with my mind in handicapping this game. It was Pitt's first loss ever to a I-AA team and stood in stark contrast to the Panthers season-opener against the Penguins three years ago, a 38-3 win. Was this team really that bad? That game marked the head-coaching debut of Paul Chryst who for the nine previous seasons was offensive coordinator at Wisconsin and there is no question he missed the mark in getting Pittsburgh ready to play. The offense was sloppy and fundamentally unsound and the defense a total disaster. In fact it was the first defense I have ever seen in college football-at any level of play-that was far more passive than aggressive, seldom attacking and instead waiting for the play to come to it. That is the fault of coaches and I do not see how it can be corrected on a short work week. It is against this background I have to go for a well-coached but rebuilding Cincinnati team that always comes to play and has one of the most aggressive defenses in college football. While the Bearcats lost their two top offensive players from last year's 10-3 team-quarterback Zach Collaros and running back Isaiah Pead, the Big East Offensive Player of the Year-the offense will still be in good hands with junior quarterback Munchie Legaux running things. He is a dual-threat signal-caller who started three games last season when Collaros was injured and went 2-1 while passing for 749 yards and five touchdowns and while rushing for another 185 yards on 41 carries. He's a good one and he will show it tonight. The bottom line is clear: the only edge Pittsburgh has in this Big East contest is that it has played a game and the Bearcats have not. My analysis says that won't be enough to get it done in this final River City Classic. Cincinnati should dominate from start to finish.
Cincinnati (-4) 34, Pittsburgh 10 Winner
Wednesday Night's 10-Unit NFL Winner
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) +3 ½ over NEW YORK GIANTS (0-0)
Prediction: Cowboys by 3
Starting Time: 8:35
Comments: The New York Giants beat Dallas in both games last season-37-34 as a 4-point underdog in Dallas and 31-14 as a 3-point favorite in the final game of the season-and stand 5-1 in the last six games of this NFC East rivalry. But that is history, and the edge must go to the Cowboys to get it done tonight-a prediction based on a few very technical key factors. First let's take the position starting quarterbacks, the Giants Eli Manning and the Cowboys Tony Romo, are of equal ability-and they are. That moves us to who has the edge in the running game and that goes to Dallas in a big-time way as the Cowboys start veteran and future superstar DeMarco Murray while the Giants will go with rookie David Wilson (Virginia Tech). But the real game-breaker has to be the matchup between the Giants back-up right cornerback Michael Coe and the Cowboys super-star wide-receiver Dez Bryant. The much-traveled Coe, who is replacing the injured Prince Amukamara, has played in just 27 games over a five-year career with the Indianapolis, Jacksonville and the Giants but has never started a single contest. He remains in the NFL because he does have ability and works cheap. I look for Romo, who has an efficiency rating in excess of 100 in his last four games against the Giants, to work this matchup to death and my analysis says there is no way Coe can handle Bryant for 60-plus offensive plays. A superior running game and this game-breaking matchup should trump the Giants outstanding pass rush and lead to a Dallas victory.
Dallas Cowboys (+3 ½) 24, New York Giants 17 Winner
I take no short cuts in analyzing each football game and it is important for you to know that and to understand why I release each team as my choice. Winning is not an accident with me and I promise you there are not many people, including coaches, who can analyze a game better than I.
Again I am not bragging but played the game, scouted and recruited in the Southeastern Conference for several years and had the opportunity to study at the feet of the late Paul "Bear" Bryant of Alabama and the late Hank Stram of the Kansas City Chiefs, just to name two mentors. Both, now in the Hall of Fame, were the best at creating winning game plans.
Winning is not an accident with me, nor is any release a shot in the dark.
This is a serious business and I take great pride in my work.
A reminder: More college handicapping information is in my Football Forecast, which was e-mailed to you Friday. If you missed it, it also is available on this website.
Today's Betting Menu
100-Unit Highrollers Blowout Gets The Big Money Sunday
I kicked off the regular NFL season this past Wednesday night with a winning 10-unit play on the underdog Dallas Cowboys (+3 ½) with their 24-17 win at the New York Giants and am really stepping things up today. There is one game on today's card in which one of the teams grades out with a 90% chance to both win and cover the number, and that means it is time to step up and fire the big guns. You can win this 100-unit Personal Best Club play for highrollers for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
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50-Unit Underdog Set To Win First NFL Game of the Week
It is a rare circumstance but I do believe I am right about this one. That means for the first time ever I am launching my NFL Game of the Week program with a play on a 50-unit underdog I believe will get it done straight up. I assure you the team I am releasing will shock you but the figures say the 'dog wins this one. Win this big Chairman's Club play for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
Better yet, become a member of my Chairman's Club for the season for just $399 and get this 50-unit play as part of your membership. Keep in mind members of my Chairman's Club also receive all Best Bets Football Investment Club plays free. The Best Bets Club is releasing three games today, including tonight's nationally televised (NBC) game that finds the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Denver Broncos.
Nationally Televised NFL Showdown Game Tops 3-0 Sunday - Steelers at Broncos
The football world can hardly wait for Sunday night's nationally televised (NBC) showdown game that finds the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Denver Broncos, and neither can I, but for a different reason. I am looking forward to this game because I am confident I have the winner - very confident. Win this 15-unit play that matches Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Broncos Peyton Manning, plus two other unit-rated games, for just $15.
I have put together a college and NFL package for this season that's without equal in the handicapping world
It is my Best Bets Football Investment Club. The football package includes:
An average of three college plays each Saturday
An average of three NFL plays each Sunday.
Most Monday & Thursday Night NFL games.
Most mid-week college games.
My 200-unit College Game of the Year.
My 200-unit NFL Game of the Year.
My 100-Unit College Upset Game of the Year.
My 100-unit NFL Upset Game of the Year.
My 100-unit AFC Game of the Year.
My 100-Unit NFL Game of the Year.
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For the record, these games if purchased on a daily basis would cost you $2,300.