Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, March 27, 2019 at 12:00 PM
Last weekend was a amazing. Every single betting favorite in the NCAA tournament won straight up. Cinderella didn’t even get to her horse-driven coach before it turned into a pumpkin. She’ll be watching this week’s action on TV with the rest of us.
The challenge now for handicappers is to figure out where the long overdue betting surprises are going to happen. JIM HURLEY won’t post his official opinions here in the HANDICAPPING NOTEBOOK. That information is for paying clients only. But, he will give you some guidelines for determining which teams may “fall back to earth” after playing over their heads.
First, let’s look at everybody who covered their “round of 32” game by nine points or more There were many blowouts, so that’s not a short list. We’ll run the teams in order of the size of last weekend’s cover.
Florida State (-4.5) beat Murray State by 28 (covered by 23.5)
Purdue (-3.5) beat Villanova by 26 (covered by 22.5)
Texas Tech (-4) beat Buffalo by 20 (covered by 16)
Oregon (-4.5) beat Cal Irvine by 19 (covered by 14.5)
Auburn (-2) beat Kansas by 14 (covered by 12)
North Carolina (-11) beat Washington by 22 (covered by 11)
Michigan State (-10) beat Minnesota by 20 (covered by 10)
Houston (-6) beat Ohio State 74-59 (covered by 9)
Michigan (-6) beat Florida 64-49 (covered by 9)
More than half of last weekend’s winners beat the spread by nine or more! So, that gives you several teams to be wary of in terms of covering big Thursday or Friday. It’s tough to cover by THAT MUCH two games in a row against top competition.
We’re not saying JIM HURLEY will be fading everyone on that list. That would be impossible anyway because Auburn is playing North Carolina and Texas Tech is playing Michigan. Let’s just say…he’s AWARE of the list! And, he has a good idea who’s balloon is about to pop with a bad reversal.
Another red flag to look for within a basketball tournament is whenever a team posts a big result by shooting lights out on three-pointers. That wasn’t as common as you might have guessed last weekend. But, there are a few teams due to fall back to earth.
Purdue shot 16 of 30 on treys (53% for 48 points)
Oregon shot 13 of 25 on treys (52% for 39 points)
Virginia Tech shot 7 of 16 on treys (44% for 21 points)
Auburn shot 13 of 30 on treys (43% for 39 points)
North Carolina shot 9 of 21 on treys (43% for 27 points)
Duke shot 10 of 25 on treys (40% for 30 points)
Remember that hitting 40% on treys is like hitting 60% on two-point shots…and that hitting 50% on treys is like hitting 75% on deuces. And, that nobody can repeatedly shoot 40% or better “on command” at neutral sites vs. quality defenses in high pressure situations.
Again, Auburn plays North Carolina, so both may cool off at the same time. Is Duke in trouble as the top pick on the futures board? The Blue Devils were lucky to survive Central Florida even when having a good day from long range. Time will tell.
Generally speaking, you want to ask teams with varied skill sets who can win by playing within themselves to keep doing that. Asking others to keep playing over their heads because you want to “ride a hot hand” is looking for trouble. Hey, it may work for another round. Nobody stays hot forever. Quality teams can play quality basketball (offense, defense, rebounding) throughout a tournament. Look for ways to back them at good prices.
JIM HURLEY is very excited about the coming weekend. He’s confident about his Sweet 16 selections. And, he knows the unique TEAM HANDICAPPING approach of his NETWORK will position him to make additional scores in the Elite 8. His computer programmers have already been running simulations for all the possible matchups! If there are any key injuries Thursday or Friday, we’ll make the proper adjustments on the fly.
You can purchase BIG, JUICY WINNERS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. NETWORK has value-priced packages that take you through the NIT and NCAA Tournaments, or through the NBA Playoffs that finish in June. Don’t forget that the full blown Major League Baseball season begins Thursday (not just two teams in Japan…but EVERYBODY). You get the most bang for your buck by attacking all the betting sports.
If you’re a do-it-yourselfer, you might be flush because so many favorites cashed tickets last week. A betting approach that’s usually a money loser got lucky. History makes it very likely that surprises are ABOUT to happen. Don’t give back what you won last week with reckless bets on overpriced favorites or other seemingly “hot” teams.
And, remember that betting with an edge is even more powerful over a variety of sports. There’s NBA every night. There’s about to be MLB action every night. You can pyramid your profits into a fortune in no time.
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