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Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, February 2, 2019 at 12:00 AM







Always fun to think “what if” when it comes to those folks holding Super Bowl LIII “Win it All” tickets from back in the summer … if you’ve got the New England Patriots to pay out 6-to-1 (see our chart below) to win SB 53, do you “hedge your bet” and place a chunk on the Los Angeles Rams plus the 2.5 or maybe 3 points here?

Most bettors we’ve spoken to this week say that’s definitely the strategy to employ here:

Heck, you could cash both ways should the Patriots win a 24-23 type game, right?

Gotta tell you that we were in this position way back in 1991 when the Washington Redskins were a 7-point betting favorite against the Buffalo Bills in that year’s Super Bowl and we didn’t hedge – thankfully – as the ‘Skins waltzed to the winner’s circle with an easy 37-24 triumph. Trouble is, we also didn’t place a Super Bowl 26 wager that day on Washington (who we thought would win by double digits!) but it’s fun to have that “win it all” ticket and the ability to move around here or there to make a few more greenbacks.

Hey, as you see by our chart, the Rams entered this here-and-now season at 10-to-1 to win it all and so, if you’re holding a ticket for the NFC champs, you could always plunk down something on the money-line and lay the – 140 with New England and thus be sure you’re collecting something on this Super Sunday.


Here were the Super Bowl LIII Odds to Win it All way back on Sept. 5th (the day before the start of the 2018 NFL Season). Note we’ve listed only the top several teams and all figures are based on $100 per-play wagers:


TEAM                     ODDS TO WIN IT ALL

NEW ENGLAND            + 600

LA RAMS                        + 1000

New Orleans                 + 1000

Pittsburgh                     + 1000

Green Bay                     + 1200

Houston                         + 1200

LA Chargers                   + 1200

Minnesota                     + 1200

Atlanta                           + 1400

Jacksonville                   + 1400

Philadelphia                  + 1400

Tennessee                     + 2500

Baltimore                      + 3000

Carolina                         + 3000

Dallas                             + 3000

Kansas City                    + 3000

NY Giants                      + 3000


Condolences to any of you folks that had anyone other than the Patriots or the Rams on your “win it all” tickets – but how about the fact Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Minnesota, Atlanta and Jacksonville (all of who were priced at 14-to-1 or less) didn’t even make it to the playoffs this go-around? Wow!

We’ll go on record to say that next year’s “win it all” favorites will – of course – feature the Patriots at or near the top but watch for Kansas City, LA Chargers and Chicago all to be 10-to-1 or less on the big board.



Let’s get you all caught up on some of the money-burning power conference squads this 2018-19 season …


CALIFORNIA (5-15) … There’s been nothing golden about the Cal Golden Bears who have failed to cover seven games in a row while going 1-11 ATS (against the spread) since early December. Note that in five of Cal’s last six games they’ve shot it at sub-.400. Ugh!


INDIANA (8-13) – The Big 10 Hoosiers are covering at a lowly 38 percent of the time and Wednesday’s 66-58 loss at 2-point home underdog Rutgers may have been the low point of this current campaign. Indiana has dropped five in a row and seven of its last eight games spreadwise and the Hoosiers’ three-point shooting has been absolutely dreadful lately (see 15 percent against Michigan and 19 percent versus Northwestern).


KANSAS (7-13-1) – Bill Self’s club has undergone injury woes and experienced some major defensive shortcomings too, so no wonder the Jayhawks have been cashing only one-in-three bets this ’18-’19 season. Did you realize that Kansas is 1-7-1 against the odds since the start of the new calendar year?


MIAMI (6-14) – Gotta say we have all the respect in the world for Hurricanes’ head coach Jim Larranaga but his young-and-sloppy squad has been a betting disaster with a 2-7 spread mark since late December. The ‘Canes have allowed each of their last four foes to shot 49 percent or better from the floor – and that included Virginia Tech shooting 59 percent in the other night’s 82-70 V-Tech win/cover as 8-point road favorites.


VANDERBILT (7-13) – It hasn’t been wise to wager on the “smartest” SEC team out there as Vandy’s failed to cover six of its last eight games overall and the Commodores have gone 2-5 vig-wise against fellow conference teams since the start of the new year. Can you believe that free-throw shooting has been a real bugaboo for the ‘Dores lately as evidenced by 50-percent-or-so FT percentages in half of the team’s last half-dozen games?


NOTE: Complete post-game coverage of Super Bowl LIII in the next edition of Jim Sez … so don’t miss out!


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