Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, January 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM
SUPER BOWL LIII - THE LAST 10 YEARS OF SUPER SUNDAYS - PLUS, MORE KEY FIGURES ...
COLLEGE BASKETBALL'S CONFERENCE-BY-CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN OF WHO'S GETTING INTO THE NCAAs
It didn't take too long - like 15 minutes or so - for the betting public to "switch sides" and go from the Los Angeles Rams as the posted 1.5-point betting favorite to now the New England Patriots being a 2.5-point fav for Super Bowl LIII on Sunday, February 3rd. But is being the betting favorite really ideal when it comes to Super Sunday?
Check out our accompanying chart below here in today's Jim Sez column and track the last 10 Super Bowls - you'll see that Betting Favorites are just 2-7 ATS (against the spread) the past 10 Super Bowl games with one Pick 'Em game tossed into the mix. You'll also discover that the last time a Super Bowl Betting Favorite won and covered in regulation play was all the way back in the 2010 NFL season ... Green Bay's 31-25 win against 2.5-point underdog Pittsburgh marked the last time Super Bowl "chalk" cashed in without needing overtime (see New England 34, Atlanta 28 two years ago in OT).
In six of these seven underdog covers, the point-grabbing team won outright - in fact, the only dog to cover without winning the "whole game" was the Arizona Cardinals back in the 2008 season with that 27-23 loss-but-cover against Pittsburgh in that thriller in Tampa Bay.
In other words, money line dog players really have prospered big-time in the last nine Super Bowls - see New Orleans, New York Giants (twice), Baltimore, Seattle, Denver and, last year, Philadelphia. Note that right at this minute the Rams are listed at + 120 for this Super Bowl versus New England.
LAST 10 SUPER BOWLS
|SB 43||Pittsburgh||- 7||Arizona||27-23|
|SB 44||New Orleans||+ 4.5||Indianapolis||31-17|
|SB 45||Green Bay||- 2.5||Pittsburgh||31-25|
|SB 46||NY Giants||+ 3||New England||21-17|
|SB 47||Baltimore||+ 5||San Francisco||34-31|
|SB 48||Seattle||+ 2||Denver||43-8|
|SB 49||New England||PK||Seattle||28-24|
|SB 50||Denver||+ 4.5||Carolina||24-10|
|SB 51||New England||- 3||Atlanta||34-28 (ot)|
|SB 52||Philadelphia||+ 4.5||New England||41-33|
In other Super Bowl LIII News & Notes ...
New England's pointspread successes against non-AFC East foes often has been overlooked by handicappers/bettors: Did you know the Patriots are a collective 25-11-2 ATS (against the spread) the past three years when playing outside their division? That's a sizzling .694 winning rate, folks.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams have their own little pointspread successes in this two-year run under kid head coach Sean McVay: The NFC champs ate a snazzy 5-2-1 versus the vig when playing AFC opponents and that includes an outright upset win last year versus Jacksonville. Plus, the Rams are 11-7 ATS away in the brief McVay Era (a .611 winning rate). Hey, much more Super Bowl 53 analysis coming your way in the next Jim Sez plus remember we'll have our SB preview next week!
Jim Hurley's Network of Handicappers and Bloggers will finish this NFL Season with a bang come Super Bowl LIII on Sunday, Feb. 3rd as we get you the Side & Totals winners of New England Patriots versus Los Angeles Rams. Plus, continue to pile up the profits all this week with NBA and NCAA Basketball action when you call us on game days at 1-800-323-4453 or go online right here.
NCAA TOURNAMENT TALK
No doubt between now and Selection Sunday on March 17th we'll all be hearing plenty about what conferences "deserve" multiple bids to this year's NCAA Tournament - remember we've always pushed for more so-called mid-major teams to get bids while giving the back of our hands to .500-type teams from major conferences. But the reality is the big six conferences - that's the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC - tend to gobble up approximately two-thirds of the available 68 berths and so let's weigh in now to see what the conference-by-conference breakdown is at this current time:
ACC ... 8 teams
Odds are both Virginia and Duke will land numero uno seeds in the "Big Dance" this March while North Carolina is positioned pretty good to be a #2 seed - otherwise, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, N.C. State and Florida State all are in good shape though some folks may believe the FSU Seminoles need a couple more quality wins.
BIG EAST ... 3 teams
Don't get all in a huff, Big East fans! The fact of the matter is defending national champ Villanova is a cinch and ditto for Marquette but you may just get one more team into the mix whether it's Butler or Xavier or possibly even fast-charging DePaul. Both St. John's and Seton Hall are very much on the outside looking in.
Big 10 ... 6 teams
Gut feeling is this 12-team league will get 50 percent entry into the NCAA Tournament with Michigan State and Michigan somewhere on the #1 or #2 seed lines while Maryland, Purdue, Iowa and Wisconsin all should get invites. Minnesota and Nebraska could make it, but there's very little wiggle room for both of 'em.
BIG 12 ... 5 teams
Just as the case with the Big 10, we say - as of now - half of the league's 10 teams will make it to the tourney with Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech and Iowa State all in solid shape these days but we would also include Texas and/or Oklahoma providing they play their best ball from this stage forward.
PAC-12 ... 4 teams
Hey, don't yell at us - the truth is the Pac-12's tourney play has been awful in recent years and may well get penalized by having the league's fifth- and/or sixth-best shut out when it comes to getting into this NCAA Tourney. Look for Washington, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon State right now have "the numbers" but we won't cut out UCLA or Oregon just yet - but they better win double-digit league wins.
SEC ... 9 teams
There's a shot the Southeastern Conference could squeeze double-digit teams into the NCAA Tourney but right now the list includes #1 Tennessee (breathing a sigh of relief after OT win at Vandy on Wednesday night), LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Alabama, Miss State, Auburn and Florida. If Arkansas can be a .500 team in conference play, then the Hogs will get there too.
NOTE: We'll have loads of Super Bowl LIII News & Notes these next couple of weeks plus there's hoops too in upcoming editions of Jim Sez.