Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, December 26, 2018 at 3:00 PM
Though major conference teams are just now taking the field in the 2018-19 bowl season, the much-anticipated Final Four is fast approaching. Clemson vs. Notre Dame and Alabama vs. Oklahoma will be played Saturday afternoon and evening. You better get those games handicapped now so you’re not caught napping on game day.
NETWORK’S market sources are telling JIM HURLEY that anything can happen in terms of line movement between now and kickoff. The public usually bets favorites in big games, and could still come in on Clemson and Alabama despite the high numbers. That said, Notre Dame and Oklahoma are both teams the public loves to bet too. And, “Wise Guys” are looking to time the market to make the most of their underdog bets. (Math minded sharps are already positioned on the favorites at lower point spreads.)
As the HANDICAPPING NOTEBOOK goes to press, we’re looking at point spreads near two touchdowns in both games. Both could be as low as 12 points by kickoff. It wouldn’t be a shocker if the public drives either (or both) to 15 points. Be sure you have a number in YOUR mind so you can get accordingly if the market starts to move.
What should you focus on? JIM HURLEY can’t post his selections here in the NOTEBOOK. That wouldn’t be fair to paying customers. He can tell you what factors are weighing most heavily in his thought process.
*Turnovers: It’s rare for us to put turnovers this high in terms of “handicapping” a game. Sure, they’re often a big factor when championships are on the line. But, not always in a way that’s predictable. With these high point spreads, you need to get as good a read as possible on the risk/reward outlook. If either big favorite loses the category, it will be very difficult to cover. Considering the caliber of the underdog quarterbacks, even a “turnover tie” at 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2 would probably favor the underdog covering the game. Look at how each of these quarterbacks has performed against their most difficult opponents in terms of interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. Also, look at each defense’s ability to force turnovers.
*Touchdowns in the Red Zone: These underdogs can’t hope to cover if they have to settle for field goals whenever they get in close. And, obviously, there’s NO WAY the favorites cover these high prices if they have to keep settling for field goals. Search the internet for red zone stats. If you have trouble finding them, dig through box scores of the highest profile games and calculate touchdown/field goal ratios on offense and defense. All four offenses are capable of quick-strike big plays. Which will make the most of ALL scoring opportunities?
*Fourth quarter defensive depth: One of the downsides for Alabama and Clemson winning so many blowouts is that their defenses don’t have much experience playing important fourth quarters. That could mean that they start fresh. But, it could also mean they run out of gas in the last 10 minutes of action if Saturday’s games turn into shootouts. Go back and review any fourth quarters that “mattered” for all four participating teams. Learn what you can from scouting reports on each defense. It becomes much easier for Alabama to pull away to a blowout against Oklahoma if the Crimson Tide defense isn’t going to tire. If it does tire, the straight up result could be in doubt.
You should also come up with a betting strategy in case the lines start to move. At what price would you bet Clemson or Alabama? At what price would you bet Notre Dame or Oklahoma? How many units at those prices? What if you lean to Alabama at -13.5, but like Oklahoma at +15? Is it one unit on ‘Bama below the key number and two units coming back over the top on OU? Or, the other way around?
Too many novice gamblers focus on the TEAM they want to root for, not the PRICE that makes for a smart investment. Right now is a very good time to force yourself to think about prices. This is what professional bettors do. They position themselves at the right numbers, and enjoy the occasional windfall when the final scoreboard margin lands between them. They DON’T worry about who they want to root for.
The best way to take worrying out of the mix is to hook up with JIM HURLEY! His team of experts will do whatever it takes to find the right teams at the right prices. He’s already in constant contact with his SCOUTS and SOURCES…with his COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS…with his TREND HISTORIANS…with his STATHEADS…and with his WISE GUY CONNECTIONS offshore, in Las Vegas, in Atlantic City, and even in southern precincts where interest is high in participating teams.
Start building your bankrolls NOW so you can make big scores through the Final Four and New Year’s. You can purchase JIM HURLEY’S top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term or multi-sport combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. We have great rates that take you through all the college bowls or NFL playoffs. If you like basketball, we can take you through March Madness or the NBA Playoffs too. Whatever the sport…whatever’s at stake, you’re going to GET THE MONEY with our BIG, JUICY WINNERS.
College football’s national championship is down to four teams. When championships are on the line, YOU NEED WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY!