Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, December 5, 2018 at 1:00 PM
College football bowl odds have been up for a few days now. You haven’t seen much line movement. That’s for a very good reason. Most smart bettors know you shouldn’t bet bowl games in early December!
Why? Several reasons.
*First, it’s very common for suspensions to take effect…sometimes with SEVERAL players on the same team! Maybe it’s for academic reasons. Maybe it’s for misbehaving on the bowl trip a couple of days before kickoff. Maybe it’s for mouthing off to the wrong coach at the wrong time. But, the worst thing that can happen to a bettor is placing a big early wager on a team, only to find out later that key players won’t even be in uniform. You can’t buy yourself off the bad line because there would have been too much movement…particularly in those cases where a lot of players are being punished for group misbehavior.
*Second, it’s become more common for projected NFL draft picks to find reasons to skip their bowl game. Maybe they’re dealing with a minor injury they don’t want to aggravate. Maybe they had a falling out with the coaching staff midseason, and they’re ready to move on to the next stage of their careers. Or, maybe alumni who play in the NFL are coming back to whisper in the kids ear that a bowl game is all risk with no reward when it comes to MONEY. Again, you don’t want to make a big bet in early or mid-December only to find out your best player has decided to “retire” from college football.
*Third, the coaching carousel often spins wildly through the bowls. This wreaks all sorts of havoc because some teams fall apart when a popular coach leaves, others play with new enthusiasm (particularly in the lesser bowls) when an unpopular coach is let go. To the degree that carousel is going to spin…it’s just now starting. NETWORK’S team of SCOUTS and SOURCES is ideally suited to deal with this dynamic in the hours leading up to kickoff. We’ll know which teams will be ready to shine for an interim coach, or which are rattled beyond repair.
*Fourth, one of the great edges you can exploit in the bowls is fading lines that have moved too far from public betting. The public hasn’t bet yet! They usually wait until game day…or at least until the holiday week between Christmas and New Year’s. There are games on the board currently that basically have the “right” line. In a few weeks, the public will move them to the WRONG place! If you have a lean to a dog at +5 right now, there’s no reason to make a light bet. Just wait until it moves to +6.5 or +7 in a few weeks.
*Finally, WEATHER is a big factor in many bowls. Often, weird conditions (particularly with wind) can give one team an edge they wouldn’t otherwise have had. Maybe a team from the north is playing a team from the south in chilly conditions. Maybe a pass-happy team is going to have trouble in breezy conditions against a run-based opponent. Maybe BOTH offenses are hurt equally, and you should pass the team side but play the Under. We should also mention that some stadiums have “turf” conditions that come into play because the grass is torn up. You want to see reports on that before investing in up-tempo offenses.
The bottom line is that INFORMATION is the key to successfully betting the bowls. And, YOU don’t have enough information yet! Personnel isn’t locked in. More coaching moves are going to be made. Lotsa luck forecasting the weather three weeks out. You don’t know yet which lines are going to move from public betting, nor how far they’re going to move.
JIM HURLEY suggests limiting your early betting to the following situations…
*Indoor games (or a handful of “paradise” spots)
*Featuring locked-in head coaches
*Involving teams with talent not yet headed to the NFL
*With a focus on “favorites” because you should still wait on the public before betting underdogs.
Things will get busy fast enough. Be patient through this relatively quiet football week so you can make a killing through the bowls. It’s a great time to get involved with early-season basketball so you can have an even larger bowl bankroll to play with. You’ll start betting the baskets in January anyway on the road to March Madness. Why not start now?!
For football or basketball, you can purchase JIM HURLEY’S top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term or multi-sport combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. NETWORK’S bowl package has set the industry standard for decades. JIM HURLEY already knows which conferences he’ll be emphasizing with big plays…and which he’ll be fading because they’re overrated.
We’ll talk more specifically about handicapping the bowls in coming weeks. Our work is all about helping you find BIG, JUICY WINNERS. If you don’t have the time to do the handicapping work yourself, hook up with PROVEN WINNER JIM HURLEY. He’ll make sure you GET THE MONEY through the college football playoff and the NFL’s Super Bowl!