Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, November 30, 2018 at 12:00 PM
Championship Week is about to begin in college football. There are two conference championships on the Friday night schedule (MAC and Pac 12), with most everybody else finishing out their seasons Saturday.
The key point of emphasis for us today in my Advanced College of Sports Betting and Handicapping is SPEED. We’ve talked enough about PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in past coursework, as well as THE MOTIVATION FACTOR. You regular students have already handicapped this weekend’s slate from those perspectives.
What bettors need to think more about in these games is the impact of SPEED in the neutral site games played indoors on fast tracks.
MAC: at Ford Field in Detroit (Lions)
Big 12: at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (Cowboys)
SEC: at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Falcons)
Big 10: at Lucas Oil Stadium (Colts)
I’m leaving out the ACC Championship game, which is outdoors on grass in Charlotte…where the Carolina Panthers play their home games. And, I’m leaving out all the “home” games being played in the mid-majors. Sure, some of those might be fast tracks…but there won’t be any change from normal home games for the hosts.
In the four games listed above, I want you to spend some extra time looking through the personnel with an emphasis on SPEED. Any PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS known for speed will be even harder to contain on these surfaces (which is part of why the market is giving respect to multi-talented Oklahoma and Ohio State even though they’re facing quality underdogs). Now, not all PLAYMAKERS are fast. Some are slow-footed quarterbacks with great arms. Some are strong running backs who move the chains rather than sprinting to daylight. Go through your notes and put an asterisk by any GAMEBREAKER who uses SPEED to score touchdowns.
*Fast players become FASTER
*Elusive players become ELUSIVE AND FAST
Secondly, and this might be even more important, find other contributors who are just kind of there in normal games, but will benefit greatly by playing indoors on a fast track. Maybe it’s the backup running back who’s going to be a hero this week because he’s likely to break free a few times. Can’t tell you how often I’ve seen something like that in conference championships or bowl games through the years. Maybe it’s the second, third, or even fourth receiving choice who’s going to be the difference-maker indoors.
*Fast unheralded players BREAK OUT
*Surprise stars help BEAT THE POINT SPREAD
I strongly believe that those efforts will help you find at least one gift this weekend, and possibly more. Oddsmakers and all the numbers guys are basing their assessments on full season data rather than what’s unique about this week’s circumstances. They’re BLIND to what’s about to happen. You need to keep your eyes on the prize.
Do I have any other hints? I need to protect my best information for my paying clients. You know that. I will ask you to think more deeply about THE MOTIVATION FACTOR this week in the MID MAJORS. You’ve probably mapped out your plans in the power conferences based on final four discussions and the usual letdown/revenge scenarios. Did you spend enough time in the MAC, CUSA, American Athletic, Sun Belt, and Mountain West conferences?
Additional homework, if you like making money, is to read through online media coverage for the teams involved to get a sense of who has a chip on their shoulder in those games. It’s not always obvious at first glance…particularly if you’ve barely glanced at those conferences through the season! A team with something to prove will get the money by 2-3 touchdowns in these types of games because they don’t call off the dogs until their point has been made.
Many of my biggest winners during the regular season were outside the major conferences. Keep that in mind. The market is much less informed about those teams, which allows those of us who ARE informed to find monster edges.
In the old days, you had to make some phone calls, or have regional newspapers mailed to you to get this kind of information. Now, with search engines on the internet, you can learn important keys from Boise to Birmingham. It will only take you a couple of hours to travel the college football map. I suggest you take time for that road trip.
I’m personally very excited about this weekend’s college action. If you need some help finding best bets, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased at this website by credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling my office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Be sure to ask about lengthy packages (more bang for your buck) that take you through the rest of football (college playoffs and the NFL Super Bowl) and basketball through March Madness or the NBA Playoffs.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and effort. I know how hard it can be to do the work late in the calendar year when so many distractions are in the way. Pro bettors learn to deal with it. If anything, it’s easier to make smart bets from Thanksgiving week on because oddsmakers and recreational bettors are so distracted!
Use SPEED to race past your competition to the winner’s circle this week. I’ll see you again Monday for our next class get-together. That will either be a tutorial based on a weekend result, or an NFL discussion with the colleges being off until the bowls start.