Submitted by Jim Hurley on Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 12:00 AM
JIM HURLEY'S TURKEY SHOOT ROLLS ON - HERE ARE THE THANKSGIVING DAY/NITE GAMES AND FRIDAY'S KEY COLLEGE GRIDIRON TILTS
Happy Thanksgiving, one and all!!! The Jim Hurley Network wishes you and yours a wonderful holiday weekend … and a big-time winning weekend too as there's loads of action from sea to shining sea. Now hear this …
Jim Hurley's Network of Handicappers and Bloggers will be banging out lots of Football winners all this holiday weekend long with the latest Annual Jim Hurley Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot - that's five full days of winning gridiron selections from Thanksgiving right thru Monday Night Football (that's Tennessee Titans at scorching-hot Houston Texans) - and you can really make your holiday a blast. Just call us at 1-800-323-4453 or get 'em right here onlineas we crush the books on one of the great football weekends of the year! Hey, there's loads of College Basketball and NBA winners too, so what are you waiting for?
NFL WEEK 12 - THANKSGIVING DAY
CHICAGO (7-3) at DETROIT (4-6) - 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears beat up the Lions 34-22 just two weekends ago (and it was really never that close) and the key here is whether the hosts can move the ball against the Khalil Mack-led Bears' defense especially with Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky now expected to miss this game with injury.
Spread Notes - Don't look now but the Chicago Bears have reeled off four consecutive pointspread victories and rookie coach Matt Nagy's crew is a perfect 3-0 ATS (against the spread) whenever playing fellow NFC North teams, The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are a better-than-you-though 6-4 ATS so far this year but overall the Motowners are 2-5-1 spreadwise in their last eight head-to-head games with "Da Bears". Note the Lions have won/covered four of their last five Thanksgiving Day games.
WASHINGTON (6-4) at DALLAS (5-5) - 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The mad scramble for the NFC East crown is officially on - okay, so the' Skins must go it without QB Alex Smith (do not watch that injury replay anymore!) and with journeyman Colt McCoy behind that battered O-line while you can expect the Cowboys to "feed" RB Ezekiel Elliott 25-to-30 carries here - note the totals price here is down to 40.5 points. Hmmm.
Spread Notes - Dallas is a dead-even but vig-losing 5-5 against the odds this season and so that makes the 'Boys 63-67-3 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett … ugh! On the flip side, Washington's covered five of its last six games while heading into this holiday duel and the 'Skins are a sparkling 8-2 spreadwise in their last 10 games when in the underdog role.
P.S., the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five Turkey Day games.
Tonight, it's …
ATLANTA (4-6) at NEW ORLEANS (9-1) - 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
In his latest performance, Saints slinger Drew Brees threw for 363 yards with 4 TDs and - dare we say - this could well be the best season any NFL quarterback has ever had. In case you're wondering, New Orleans has scored 30+ plus in eight different games this year and that defense is perking up now too having allowed a grand total of 21 points to be scored the past two weeks. Any life left in these moribund Falcons who have lost four different "one-score" games this year?
Spread Notes - First things first, N'Orleans rolls into this prime-time tilt on an eight-game pointspread winning streak and right now the Saints are a collective 108-86-4 ATS under boss-man Sean Payton (that's a solid .557 winning rate). Atlanta is a crummy 3-7 against the Las Vegas price tags this year and the Falcons are 4-10 vig-wise away since the start of last year.
In College Football tonight, it's …
#21 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-4, 3-4) at OLE MISS (5-6, 1-6) - 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This year's Egg Bowl could be a lopsided affair - note Miss State went from an 8.5-point opening-line favorite to 10.5 points before you could say Archie Manning - and note the visiting Bulldogs have the country's fourth-ranked defense these days. If State QB Nick Fitzgerald puts together one of his patented 100-yard rushing / 200-yard passing games here then the chalk should romp but consider Ole Miss did win this rivalry game 31-28 last year as two-TD underdogs.
Spread Notes - Miss State's snagged 7-of-11 pointspread wins this year but overall the Bulldogs are just 3-6 ATS in SEC games the past year-plus; Ole Miss, meanwhile, is 3-8 against the juice this year and note the Rebels are 3-8 ATS at home since the start of the 2017 season.
On Friday, it's …
#6 OKLAHOMA (10-1, 7-1) at #13 WEST VIRGINIA (8-2, 6-2) - 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
First team to 50 wins? Hey, don't laugh 'cause both of these offenses are jet-fueled these days: Oklahoma has scored 48-or-more points on eight different occasions - the Sooners are just 4-4 against the odds, however, in these tilts - while West Virginia has scored 40-or-more points seven different times this year and the Mountaineers are 5-1-1 spreadwise in these bashes. Winner gets a berth in next week's Big 12 Championship Game. Plenty of individual goodies here too with Heisman Trophy hopefuls on stage: Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray already has 34 passing TDs and another 10 rushing scores; WVU's gritty Will Grier enters this prime-timer with 33 aerial TD strikes and he's done some wonderful last-minute heroics in 2018.
The Sooners are a 2.5-point (and growing?) betting favorites here and note West Virginia's a rotten 1-9 spreadwise in its last 10 appearances as a pup.
Spread Note - Oklahoma is 6-12 ATS (against the spread) away since the start of the 2016 season.
#16 WASHINGTON (8-3, 6-2) at #8 WASHINGTON STATE (10-1,7-1) - 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox
This year's Apple Cup is overflowing with great storylines: Winner here gets a berth in next Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game opposite Utah but everyone's holding their breath to see if Washington State can triumph and possibly move up a notch or two in the next edition of the College Football Playoff rankings. If QB Gardner Minshew II (see 4,325 yards passing with 36 TD passes) can carry over the momentum from last week's 7-TD showing against Arizona, then the Coogs will KO the hated Huskies but doesn't this Las Vegas price tag look a little suspicious? Washington head coach Chris Petersen is 4-0 SU / ATS head-to-head against Mike Leach. Just sayin'!
Spread Note - Washington State's 9-1-1 against the odds this year (and the Cougars are 6-1-1 ATS as favs).
#9 UCF (10-0, 7-0) at USF (7-4, 3-4) - 4:15 p.m. ET, ABC
The UCF winning streak is up to 23; the College Football Playoff rankings now has the UCF kids at #9 … the real key number that the Knights would like to get to is #4 (as in CFP's Final Four).
Maybe QB McKenzie Milton (24 TDs / 5 INTs) will be part of the Heisman Trophy "guest list" in a couple of weeks in NYC but right now he's trying to crack open another road win - note UCF hasn't played a road game since Oct. 20th when it clubbed East Carolina by 27 points. If two-TD underdog USF has any shot to stay in the hunt here, then RB Jordan Cronkite (1,065 yards rushing and 9 TDs) better be gaining yards in major chunks here.
Spread Note - UCF is a collective 17-6 versus the vig during the aforementioned 23-game SU winning streak.
#14 TEXAS (8-3, 6-2) at KANSAS (3-8, 107) - 12 p.m. ET, FS1
Hey, the Longhorns can clinch a berth in next weekend's Big 12 Championship Game with a "W" here and they're keeping fingers crossed that starting QB Sam Ehlinger (2,620 yards passing with 21 TDs and 2 INTs) will be A-OK after suffering a shoulder/neck injury in last weekend's 24-10 win/cover against Iowa State. P.S., backup Shane Buechele came off the pine to complete all 10 of his passes, so Tom Herman's guys shouldn't suffer a major letdown is Ehlinger is out.
Spread Note - Texas is a solid 10-6-1 ATS in conference action since the start of last season.
NOTE: Plenty more College & NFL Week 12 Previews in the next Jim Sez.