Submitted by Jim Hurley on Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 12:00 AM
OUR NFL WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING DAY QUICK-HITTER PREVIEWS ...
COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOTEBOOK: THE HEISMAN TROPHY LEADERS PLUS COLLEGE ACTION ON THE HOLIDAY
Okay, so are points gonna be as plentiful on Thanksgiving Day in the three NFL games as they were in Monday Night's wild 54-51 win/push by the Los Angeles Rams over the Kansas City Chiefs? Stay tuned and let's just say that "over" winner for the public was as easy as pumpkin pie, eh? We're zooming in on what should be a great holiday weekend of NFL Week 12 and College Football and here's a quickie reminder ...
We will be banging out plenty of winners all this week with our Annual Jim Hurley Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot - that's five days of winning gridiron selections from Thanksgiving thru Monday Night - so sign up today and really make your holiday a blast. Just call us at 1-800-323-4453 or get 'em online right here as we crush the books on one of the great football weekends of the year! Hey, there's loads of College Basketball and NBA winners too, so what are you waiting for?
NFL WEEK 12 - THANKSGIVING DAY
CHICAGO (7-3) at DETROIT (4-6) - 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears beat up the Lions 34-22 just two weekends ago (and it was really never that close) and the key here is whether the hosts can limit the running yards of Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky - he's become a real menace when tucking-and-running for first downs.
Spread Notes - Don't look now but the Chicago Bears have reeled off four consecutive pointspread victories and rookie coach Matt Nagy's crew is a perfect 3-0 ATS (against the spread) whenever playing fellow NFC North teams, The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are a better-than-you-though 6-4 ATS so far this year but overall the Motowners are 2-5-1 spreadwise in their last eight head-to-head games with "Da Bears".
Here's the last 5 Thanksgiving Day games played by the Detroit Lions:
|2017||Minnesota||- 2.5||DETROIT||Vikings win 30-23|
|2016||DETROIT||- 1.5||Minnesota||Lions win 16-13|
|2015||DETROIT||- 3||Philadelphia||Lions win 45-14|
|2014||DETROIT||- 7||Chicago||Lions win 34-17|
|2013||DETROIT||- 6.5||Green Bay||Lions win 40-10|
The Lions have won/covered four of their last five Thanksgiving Day games while as you'll see below, the Cowboys are 2-3 SU (straight-up) and 0-5 ATS in their last handful of Turkey Day games ... surprised?
WASHINGTON (6-4) at DALLAS (5-5) - 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The mad scramble for the NFC East crown is officially on - okay, so the' Skins must go it without QB Alex Smith (do not watch that injury replay anymore!) and with journeyman Colt McCoy behind that battered O-line while you can expect the Cowboys to "feed" RB Ezekiel Elliott 25-to-30 carries here - note the totals price here is down to 40.5 points. Hmmm.
Spread Notes - Dallas is a dead-even but vig-losing 5-5 against the odds this season and so that makes the 'Boys 63-67-3 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett ... ugh! On the flip side, Washington's covered five of its last six games while heading into this holiday duel and the 'Skins are a sparkling 8-2 spreadwise in their last 10 games when in the underdog role.
Here's the last 5 Thanksgiving Day games played by the Dallas Cowboys:
|2017||LA Chargers||- 1||DALLAS||Chargers win 28-6|
|2016||DALLAS||- 5.5||Washington||Cowboys win 31-26|
|2015||Carolina||- 1||DALLAS||Panthers win 33-14|
|2014||DALLAS||- 3||Philadelphia||Eagles win 33-10|
|2013||DALLAS||- 9.5||Oakland||Cowboys win 31-24|
On Thursday Night, it's ...
ATLANTA (4-6) at NEW ORLEANS (9-1) - 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
In his latest performance, Saints slinger Drew Brees threw for 363 yards with 4 TDs and - dare we say - this could well be the best season any NFL quarterback has ever had. In case you're wondering, New Orleans has scored 30+ plus in eight different games this year and that defense is perking up now too having allowed a grand total of 21 points to be scored the past two weeks. Any life left in these moribund Falcons who have lost four different "one-score" games this year?
Spread Notes - First things first, N'Orleans rolls into this prime-time tilt on an eight-game pointspread winning streak and right now the Saints are a collective 108-86-4 ATS under boss-man Sean Payton (that's a solid .557 winning rate). Atlanta is a crummy 3-7 against the Las Vegas price tags this year and the Falcons are 4-10 vig-wise away since the start of last year.
HEISMAN TROPHY WATCH LIST
It's our latest installment of the Jim Sez 2018 Heisman Trophy Watch List as we bring you the top candidates for College Football's most coveted individual award: Note that the 84th Annual Heisman Memorial Trophy Presentation will be on Saturday, Dec. 8 in New York City:
TUA TAGOVAILOA, QB, Alabama - It's been a runaway campaign for this snazzy southpaw who overcame a slowish start against The Citadel last weekend to record a 340-yard / 3-TD performance in the Crimson Tide's 50-17 non-cover win. Tagovailoa's season-long numbers feature 2,865 yards rushing with 31 TDs and 2 INTs plus there's another four rushing scores. Folks, he stays at a solid 1-5 choice to win the award and could "clinch" things this weekend in the Iron Bowl showdown against 24-point underdog Auburn.
KYLER MURRAY, QB, Oklahoma - Okay, so we've popped this two-sport star back into second place in our current Heisman Trophy Watch List following his dynamic 272-yard / 2-TD passing, 99-yard / 3-TD rushing show in the Sooners' 55-40 non-cover win against five-TD pup Kansas. On the year, Murray's thrown for 3,310 yards and 34 TDs (only 6 picks) with another 739 yards rushing (7.1 yards-per-carry) with 10 ground scores. Next up is Friday night's hoedown at West Virginia.
GARDNER MINSHEW, QB, Washington State - Folks, this is the best Heisman Trophy "story" as the East Carolina transfer has wowed the West for the FBS playoff-hopeful Cougars: Last weekend Minshew completed 43-of-55 passes for 473 yards with a school-record 7 TDs and 0 INTs. On the year, Minshew's thrown for 4,325 yards with 36 TDs and 7 INTs while completing 70.4 percent of his throws. Next up is Friday night's Apple Cup showdown against archrival Washington.
WILL GRIER, QB, West Virginia - True, the Mountaineers have fallen out of any/all playoff discussion but don't blame that on the uber-confident Grier who has 33 TDs and 3,325 passing yards on the year. Last week he threw for three TDs against Oklahoma State - the eighth time this season he's thrown at least 33 TDs in a game. Now, he goes head-to-head against Oklahoma's Murray the day after Thanksgiving ... va-va-va voom!
On Thursday night, it's ...
#21 MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-4, 3-4) at OLE MISS (5-6, 1-6) - 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
This year's Egg Bowl could be a lopsided affair - note Miss State went from an 8.5-point opening-line favorite to 10.5 points before you could say Archie Manning - and note the visiting Bulldogs have the country's fourth-ranked defense these days. If State QB Nick Fitzgerald puts together one of his patented 100-yard rushing / 200-yard passing games here then the chalk should romp but consider Ole Miss did win this rivalry game 31-28 last year as two-TD underdogs.
Spread Notes - Miss State's snagged 7-of-11 pointspread wins this year but overall the Bulldogs are just 3-6 ATS in SEC games the past year-plus; Ole Miss, meanwhile, is 3-8 against the juice this year and note the Rebels are 3-8 ATS at home since the start of the 2017 season.