Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, November 14, 2018 at 12:00 PM
Many handicappers will be tempted to bet on the “red hot” Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints this weekend. Both teams are enjoying long runs of success straight up and against the spread. Both proved last week that they’re playing at PEAK levels…each scoring more than 50 points!
*Pittsburgh beat Carolina 52-21, gaining 457 yards on 7.9 yards-per-play. The Steelers scored touchdowns on all four journeys into the red zone…and had five touchdowns and a field goal coming on drives of 60 yards or more.
*New Orleans won at Cincinnati 51-14, gaining 509 yards on 6.9 yards-per-play. The Saints scored touchdowns on five of six journeys into the red zone…and had five touchdowns and a field goal on drives of 60 yards or more.
Have they become the same team?!
Offseason rules changes that helped offenses generally REALLY helped veteran quarterbacks who had a large stable of weapons to use. It took awhile for Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees to fully figure out their edges. Once they did…CARNAGE!
Neither team is “lucking” its way to big offensive numbers. Most opposing defenses are outmatched. And, it’s not like they’re bullying bad teams during a soft portion of the schedule. New Orleans just beat the current Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams by double digits. Pittsburgh’s last two wins came against market-respected Baltimore and Carolina. Futures prices now have the Saints as a virtual co-favorite with the Rams to win the NFC and Super Bowl. Pittsburgh climbed past New England on the odds board at the respected Westgate in Las Vegas.
Unfortunately, too many bettors and media types are focusing on how “hot” these teams are rather than their offensive skill sets. Football isn’t roulette. And, for bettors…you can’t beat roulette but you CAN beat oddsmakers if you do a better job of analyzing games.
Are you going to ride New Orleans this week at home against Philadelphia because the Saints are hot? Many of you will. And, it could work out. But, what if the line moves to -10 over the weekend? What if oddsmakers had posted -14 as the opener? What about -21? The Saints wouldn’t have been any less hot…but they wouldn’t have been a smart bet at those lines based on what we know about the NFL.
You can’t just ignore the price and focus on streaks. A smart sports bet occurs when the market hasn’t properly evaluate skill sets on the football field, baseball field, basketball court, or hockey rink. Hot or cold doesn’t really matter. A lot of four-game cover streaks stop at four. Some continue to five, then stop. Others go longer. But, all eventually stop. And, they stop because the market eventually catches up to reality…or because something happens to affect a team’s skill sets. If Drew Brees gets hurt in practice Friday and has to miss the Eagles game, it doesn’t matter that the Saints were hot.
Were you riding the Rams earlier this season? They’ve now failed to cover their last three games (Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle). Kansas City stormed out of the gate but failed to get the money in two of its last three (missing vs. Denver and Arizona).
JIM HURLEY wants you to focus on LINE VALUE rather than what makes headlines. The Rams and Chiefs got too expensive. That’s likely to happen to the Steelers and Saints as well. Eventually.
Now, the NETWORK team does include trend historians. But, it’s their job to recognize talent and situations rather than worry about hot or cold. Alabama isn’t “hot” in first halves because they’ve covered every first half this season. That’s due to the combination of elite talent and great coaching preparation. Eventually the line will rise too high, or the Crimson Tide will run into another super-talented team with a head coach that prepares well. To the degree we study trends, it’s to garner deeper insights about the key factors that matter most…and to recognize blind spots in the betting marketplace that we can exploit.
Have you been chasing your tail this football season? Juicing out because half of your “hot” teams slow down, and half of the “cold” teams you’ve been fading finally play well? Happens every year to casual gamblers. But, it doesn’t happen to JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK. Oddsmakers are chasing our tail!
You can purchase JIM HURLEY’S top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term or multi-sport combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155.
Be sure to ask about the annual “Turkey Shoot” when you call. We’re now just a week away from holiday festivities. Great games this year on Thanksgiving, with playoff contenders in all three NFL matchups (including the Saints). The rest of the weekend includes college blockbusters like Oklahoma/West Virginia and Michigan/Ohio State. Build your bankrolls this weekend with BIG, JUICY WINNERS in college and pro football to make sure your cornucopia is full of cash!
Also, ask about rates for early basketball. November lines are easiest to beat in both NBA and college hoops because oddsmakers are still overwhelmed by football demand. Join us in attacking those soft lines.
Don’t make the mistakes that prevent public bettors from getting to the winner’s circle. Bet smart! Or, sign up with a service that does. You’ll always GET ALL THE MONEY when you’re with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!