Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, November 12, 2018 at 10:00 AM
This past Saturday I won a monster 200-unit release on Utah State (-) over San Jose State 62-24. The analytical process for that winning call featured all the main keys we always talk about here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. I’ve decided to make an outline of that process today’s tutorial so you can apply the reasoning to search for other virtual locks the rest of this season.
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
It goes without saying that any favorite that enters a game with an 8-1 record and a national ranking of #14 in the AP poll is going to have a big edge in this regard over a team entering 1-8. What was important for me here was that the favorite’s stars LOVE piling up stats and points, and they’ve been doing that in a way that the market hasn’t fully accounted for all season.
Utah State quarterback Jordan Love is ideally suited for this fast break offense…particularly against bad defenses. He’s less likely to dominate a game vs. a top opponent. San Jose State has a horrible defense…so I knew this was going to get ugly.
How ugly? Utah stated gained 804 yards despite calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter! Love passed for 491 yards by himself. No turnovers either.
This was about as big a mismatch as possible in this category. Don’t forget that Army beat SJSU 52-3! Utah State has better athletes than Army, and plays at a faster pace. I’m not surprised the Aggies topped 800 yards. Good weather made at least 600 a near certainty.
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
Utah State lost its season opener at Michigan State, but is undefeated since then. That means they’re undefeated in Mountain West play, and in position to play for the conference championship. Not only that, but a #14 poll ranking entering the week gives them a chance to crack the mid-major discussion for playing in a “big six” bowl game. Right now, everyone assumes Central Florida is going to get that spot. That just drives Utah State harder.
So, we had a favorite that loves running up the score anyway (check their recent results) coming in with peak motivation intensity. This a team on a mission.
San Jose State had nothing to play for. The Spartans aren’t going to a bowl. They already avoided a winless season by getting fired up for UNLV and getting the victory. And, that was after an in-state “bowl” game against San Diego State that was a near miss. This was a tough fatigue spot, their third road game of the last four.
A bad, TIRED team was going to get steamrolled. It was 62-17 until a late garbage time score. And, San Jose’s first touchdowns came on a blocked punt that was returned for a TD. Fluke play.
Look at how those factors all line up perfectly to create a scoreboard slaughter. Super-talented team on a mission playing at peak intensity at HOME, facing a bad, worn out, virtually talentless visitor (by major college standards) that’s ready for the season to end.
As you’ve heard me say in the past…these are the games where the favorite is 100% to win straight up, and 90% to cover the spread. San Jose State needed a special teams’ touchdown and garbage time indifference just to get in the neighborhood.
It was a big help that oddsmakers have been underestimating Utah State all season. The Aggies are now 9-1 ATS! That’s 90% against the spread even when the stars don’t align just right. State is also 9-1 to the Over because the guys who make totals aren’t giving their fast-paced offense enough credit. I mentioned that Utah State really loves running up the score. The Aggies are a perfect 6-0 ATS when laying 19 points or more including their last three games on the schedule.
Finding bets this strong involves a combination of team analysis and market analysis. If you’re willing to do the work in both of those areas (and it must be BOTH!), you will be rewarded.
I’m not going to tip my hand in terms of specifics. But, I’m confident we’ll find other plays with similar profit potential the rest of the month. As we’ve discussed a few times, THE MOTIVATION FACTOR will really widen late in a season where some teams have everything to play for while others (particularly BAD teams) have already thrown in the towel or are biding time until a rivalry game in the season finale.
KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased at this website by credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling my office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Remember to ask about combination packages that also include early season basketball.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. There’s no formal homework assignment today because my recap of Utah State’s blowout should have already fired you up to find similar games this coming week. Many of you have already grabbed your schedules to find talent mismatches and motivational mismatches. The rest can begin doing so right now.
I’ll be back again Friday at the usual time for our next class get-together. The bulk of our coursework will feature football until the college season winds down. I’ll start squeezing more basketball into the mix in December. Of course, we’ll be basketball heavy once the NFL playoffs have ended. If you’re new to the course, we meet year round…and have been doing so for a very long time at this website. Welcome aboard to you newcomers from parts of the country that have only recently legalized sports betting. I’m confident more states will be joining the fold in short order.