Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 26, 2018 at 4:00 PM
Houston dominated Miami Thursday night in a win that flew Over the total. Squares (the public) love that combination of Favorite and Over. Let’s see how smart money is dealing with that reality throughout the rest of Week 8. Note that there are byes this week for: Atlanta, Dallas, the Los Angeles Chargers, and Tennessee.
Games are presented in Nevada Rotation order…
PHILADELPHIA VS. JACKSONVILLE (In London, England): An opener of Philadelphia -2 was bet up quickly to -3. Jacksonville is in a bad slump AND dealing with multiple injuries. (Remember that this is a neutral field game overseas, which helps keep the line in check). Friday morning my time, I’m seeing some stores test Eagles -3.5. It’s very difficult to bet the shorthanded Jaguars given their recent form. Let’s see if that hook brings in the Wise Guys on the dog. The total is up from 41 to 43 because Jacksonville’s injuries are in the defensive secondary.
CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -7.5, and was bet AWAY from the key number of seven up to -8 and -8.5. Sports books will now have to decide if they want to get out of the “teaser window” by going all the way to -9. You regulars know that sharps and squares both LOVE moving favorites of -8 or -8.5 down to -2 or -2.5 for six-point teasers because the move crosses both the three and the seven. Tough spot for oddsmakers. Pittsburgh was already heavily bet at -7.5…and will drive a lot of teaser money. If the line does go to nine, Cleveland money will come in on a “defensive dog” that’s been playing a lot of close games. The Over/Under is down from 50.5 to 49 because of some weather issues.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Kansas City is the only team in the NFL to have covered every point spread. Though, they had to sweat the first round of this rivalry series in Denver. An opener of KC -9.5 was quickly taken to the key number of -10. I wouldn’t be surprised if -10.5 at least gets tested here and there. Probably a tug-of-war around that key number on Sunday between the public riding a hot favorite, and old-school sharps who like getting double digits on any NFL underdog. The Over/Under is down from 55.5 to 53.3 because of the potential for wet or breezy weather.
NY JETS AT CHICAGO: Looks like a tug-of-war brewing between Chicago -7 and NYJ plus anything over seven. There are some sharp syndicates who keep betting Mitchell Trubisky in this new offense. That wasn’t rewarded the past two weeks. Dog lovers think this Jets team can hang around a big number…with a possible garbage-time bailout at the very least. So, even before you get to the public, different syndicates are playing ping pong with the line already. The Over/Under is down two points from 46 to 44 because of that weather in the Midwest.
WASHINGTON AT THE NY GIANTS: We keep hopping between pick-em and Washington -1. That’s a really big drop in Power Ratings for the G-men, who are now seen as at least a field goal worse than Washington on a neutral field. Not sure if the public is going to step in here. The Giants were lucky to cover in Atlanta this past Monday Night, and aren’t playing well in general. Should Washington be getting this much respect on the road? Interested to see what “New York” money does at the new legal sports books in New Jersey.
SEATTLE AT DETROIT: So far, a tug-of-war between Detroit -2.5 and Seattle +3. That could hold all weekend…because both sides have some appeal at the favored number. Seattle is a nice defensive dog to consider with the full field goal, particularly against a turnover prone quarterback. But, Detroit’s playing well enough that -2.5 offers percentage value in a game that could be decided with late points. Sports books will pray the game doesn’t land exactly on the three. No bettors would lose if that happens.
TAMPA BAY AT CINCINNATI: The opener of Cincinnati -4.5 has been bet down. Sharps fell out of love with the Bengals after some early affection. Both teams are the type to play close with people, but not necessarily pull away unless they get a lot of cheap points off field position. We’re now seeing Cincinnati -4 or -3.5 at most spots. Not sure what it will take to bring in Bengals money.
BALTIMORE AT CAROLINA: Big early move on Baltimore from +1 all the way to -3. Carolina money did come in hard on the full field goal. So, now we’re dealing with a tug-of-war between Baltimore -2.5 and Carolina +3. Some sharps really love Baltimore this season, similar to what we’ve seen with Chicago. But, Cam Newton and the Panthers rallied to beat Philadelphia last week, and could definitely hang close or win here. Looks like he’s going to play. Some very good games this week. Subscribe to the Red Zone channel if you haven’t already!
INDIANAPOLIS AT OAKLAND: Weird to see the Colts as a road favorite. But, Oakland keeps trading away talent, and dealing with off-the-field strife. An opener of Indy -1.5 was bet up to the key number at -3. We haven’t seen buy back on the Raiders yet…but the Colts money did at least stop at that line. Very tough for the public to like either side here. And, Las Vegas locals have stopped betting the Raiders with any passion too given their recent slump.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: Very ugly game. San Francisco at least occasionally plays well. Arizona looked awful a week ago Thursday vs. Denver. Now a key player wants traded. Niners are up to -1 from an opener of pick-em. Just like the Indy/Oakland, tough to like either team at these prices. Will everyone just bet Packers/Rams and leave the rest of the late slate alone?
GREEN BAY AT LA RAMS: Sharps and squares have been all over the Rams this season. Quants in particular have had the Rams as the best team in the league for weeks. The opener of LAR -10 was bet down to -9.5 or -9 because Aaron Rodgers gets so much respect. He’s never been this big an underdog in his career. Everyone will be watching THIS game, so it will be heavily bet. We haven’t yet dropped to a number that drives in Rams money hard. Sports books have no interest in going to -8.5 because that opens the door on teasers for Rams bettors. My guess is that sports books will put a floor in at the nine and dare chalk lovers to lay that price.
NEW ORLEANS AT MINNESOTA: New Orleans is another team that many sharp groups have been in love with. They’ve been rewarded for weeks. An opener of Minnesota -1 (which was already a lot lower than the -5.5 the Vikings laid in the playoff game on this field last January) has been bet to pick-em. I’ve seen a store or two test Saints -1. That may be the eventual tug-of-war in this very appealing prime time game on NBC. Saints at pick-em vs. Minnesota +1. I can see sharps and squares on either side at those prices.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The opener of New England -13.5 was bet quickly up to the key number of -14. We’ve been painted there ever since. Nobody in the world except old-school sharps wants to bet Buffalo. I would expect public money to hit the Pats all day Monday, probably bringing -14.5 or even -15 into play. Sharps will see what they can get, then buy back on principal. That’s my guess anyway.
I have a few games Saturday and Sunday that I’m looking at very seriously. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about packages that include the rest of the baseball playoffs and early season basketball.
Thanks for reading. See you again next week.