Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 5, 2018 at 4:00 PM
New England beat Indianapolis 38-24 Thursday night to put the first NFL game of Week Five in the books. Let’s see how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting the rest of the card. I’ll go through the games in official Nevada Rotation order so you can makes notes in your schedules. We have two “bye” teams once again this week. Chicago and Tampa Bay are off after playing each other last Sunday. (Tampa Bay played that game like it had a bye last week!)
BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND: We’ve been sitting on Baltimore -3 all week. More people are betting the Ravens at that price, particularly with Cleveland coming off a high scoring overtime game with Oakland last week. We’re already seeing -120 at many stores if you want the Ravens at three. Will the line move to -3.5? Some sports books got “sided” last week in that Browns/Raiders game. It landed on three. Bettors on Oakland -2.5 won. Bettors on Cleveland +3 pushed. Sports books were hit pretty hard. They’d prefer not to have a replay of that! Some may test -3.5 if no Browns money is coming in on the three.
JACKSONVILLE AT KANSAS CITY: Another game stuck on the three all week. Here it’s the home team laying a field goal. Two very serious AFC championship contenders at the moment. The Chiefs are on a short week after winning at Denver Monday night. Makes it harder to lay the points. More interest so far on the Jags, who are -120 at +3 in a lot of spots.
TENNESSEE AT BUFFALO: An opener of Tennessee -4 has been bet up to -5.5. More sharps are starting to like the Titans generally. Great wins the past two weeks over Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Defense is solid as a rock. Marcos Mariota playing hurt is probably helping him stay within himself. Very tough matchup for Buffalo’s offense against a quality defense. I do think a move to the full six would bring in home underdog money. Titans might have trouble staying up after those last two battles. Old school sharps are hoping to see the dog with six.
NY GIANTS AT CAROLINA: An opener of Carolina -6.5 has stood pat. I don’t think we’ll see seven. If anything, it’s more likely to come down to six because the Giants aren’t quite seen as a doormat in sharp circles yet. You’ll recall that a few Wise Guys liked NYG in Houston a couple of weeks ago and cashed that ticket. Many also prefer Cam Newton at a field goal or less rather than as a medium favorite.
DENVER AT THE NY JETS: Sharps have fallen out of love with the Jets. Remember how much respect they were getting at Cleveland awhile back? Here, the game has been bet down from Jets -2 to pick-em, even with Denver stuck in an early start time in a short preparation week. Not sure if the public will nibble here Sunday. Sharps seem to like Denver getting any points, but the money stops at pick-em.
ATLANTA AT PITTSBURGH: Another game painted three all week. A lot of parity this season, so we’re going to see a lot of “home team by three” point spreads. And, the distance from “playoff caliber” to “just below .500” is tight enough that road favorites will be sitting on three quite a bit too (like Baltimore earlier). Pittsburgh is getting more money thus far, causing many stores to move to -120 if you want to lay the field goal with the Steelers. The Over/Under is up two points from 56 to 58. I only mention totals on the big movers in these expanded NFL reports. Loser of this game is going to be in real trouble for making the playoffs.
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: Green Bay opened at -1, but we’ve been painted pick-em most of the week. Sharps know that Aaron Rodgers is still nowhere near 100%. He didn’t look as good last week vs. Buffalo as that 22-0 final score made it sound. I think sharps will fade any move off of pick-em. Because the public loves betting Green Bay…and sees them as the much superior team…squares will probably bet the Packers. That could set up a tug-of-war between Green Bay at pick-em and Detroit +1.
MIAMI AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati’s been sitting at -6 all week. So few early moves to talk about today. Normally that means sharps are hoping to bet the dogs after squares play favorites. Sharps always bet favorites early if that’s the side they like. For now, sharps don’t want either team at this price. They would take the Dolphins at +6.5 if it becomes available. Interesting matchup because both have performed better than expected out of the gate.
OAKLAND AT THE LA CHARGERS: Finally, an important move to talk about! The Chargers opened at -7.5, just above the key number of seven. Oakland was hit so hard that the line is now down to just -5.5. That means we blew through the key number of seven…then also crossed the slightly less key number of six. That’s a big indictment of the Chargers, who had trouble shaking San Francisco last week. Sharps like Derek Carr’s chances to either cover clean, or come through the back door against this soft SD defense. The Over/Under was bet up from 51 to 52.5 with a similar thought process.
ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO: An opener of San Francisco -5.5 has been bet down to -4, with some stores even testing -3.5. That’s a lot of support for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen! What’s mostly happening here is that the Wise Guys (and early public bettors) are thinking “San Francisco shouldn’t be favored by that much over anybody”. It’s one thing to consider C.J. Beathard as a value underdog at a big price, it’s quite another to lay more than a field goal with him.
MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Another quality matchup sitting on a field goal all week. Though, stores are getting hit fairly hard with Eagles money. Some are even testing -125 if you want to lay the field goal with the home favorite. Minnesota’s defense has been very disappointing after last year’s great season. But, Philadelphia isn’t exactly hitting on all cylinders yet. This will be a heavily bet game in the late TV window as a rematch of the NFC championship showdown. The Over/Under has been bet up from 44.5 to 46.5 because of Minnesota’s defensive issues. And, you can assume the weather’s going to be okay or the number wouldn’t have moved so much at this site.
LA RAMS AT SEATTLE: An opener of Rams -7 is up to -7.5. But, Seattle money does come in with the hook. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a tug-of-war all weekend at those prices. Rams are playing great, and seem affordable to the public laying a touchdown. Sharps will like a defensive dog on a strong home field getting that hook. The total has been bet up from 48 to 50 because the Rams look like they can score on anybody. Quants love them! Probably good weather in store too.
DALLAS AT HOUSTON: We’re up off the opener of Houston -3 to -3.5. Sharps have given up on Dallas. Cowboys couldn’t even cover at home vs. Detroit last week despite enjoying a comfortable lead at one point. We’ll have to see how the public bets. Dallas is “America’s Team” after all. Might be a rare spot where squares are on a dog, while sharps take the favorite. Wise Guys have proven their comfortable laying -3 with the Texans here.
WASHINGTON AT NEW ORLEANS: A solid -6.5 all week. That’s telling, because the game wasn’t driven to the key number of seven. Normally the Saints would draw a lot of interest as a home favorite in this price range. Sharps respect the bye week (Skins were off last Sunday), and they probably believe Alex Smith can move the ball on this defense. I think the Wise Guys would come in hard on Washington if +7 comes into play after public betting. Because this is the last game of the week...there’s a very good chance that will happen. Best expectation is an eventual tug-of-war between New Orleans -6.5 and Washington +7.
Looks like a fun weekend ahead. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about packages that also include the MLB playoffs.
Thanks for reading. Go make some money!