Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 1:00 PM
A new week of football is ready to kick off. Time for our look at late-week football betting (Thursday/Friday), and the handful of Saturday’s college marquee matchups.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened on the key number of -10. It’s been bet up to -10.5 at many spots, and might go as high as -11 before kickoff if the public believes Tom Brady and the Pats are back in form. Old school sharps like taking double digit dogs. Some are already in on the Colts at +10.5. They’d buy some more if +11 comes into play. Big drop on the total from 53 down to 50. Market has been overshooting the mark on New England thus far. And, Brady doesn’t mind running clock with a lead.
TULSA AT HOUSTON: Big move through a key number on Houston. An opener of -15.5 is all the way up to -18. We are seeing some buy back on the big dog at +18. So, sharps clearly love Houston at -17 or better. Some stuck around at -17.5…but the tide turns on eighteen. Total is up from 67.5 to 70, which suggests weather won’t be a negative. The public isn’t showing much interest yet in these minor-conference Thursday and Friday nighters.
GEORGIA STATE AT TROY: Respect for this underdog. An opener of Troy -16.5 moved AWAY from the key number of 17. You regulars know how important that is. We’re now seeing Troy -15.5 in most spots. Sharps liked Georgia State at +16.5 and +16. They knew the public wasn’t likely to play chalk here in a meaningful way. This total is down three points from 57.5 to 54.5. A combo of “Georgia State and Under” means the Wise Guys expect the dog’s defense to keep them within the number.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT MARSHALL: Big move on the dog here, as an opener of Marshall -7 is all the way down to -5. Might go lower. Another spot where sharps figured the public is going to leave the game alone…so there’s no reason to see if +7.5 is ever available. Wise Guys were ecstatic to get +7, and kept betting at +6. This total has also dropped three points, down from 53 to 50. Squares (the public) are usually on favorites and Over. Without squares betting, dogs and Under are getting hit earlier than in the past.
GEORGIA TECH AT LOUISVILLE: Louisville has been a real disappointment this season. Lamar Jackson carried the program on his shoulders when he was here. Georgia Tech opened as a road favorite at -3.5, and has been bet up to -4.5. Total is up two points from 56.5 to 58.5. That’s “Tech and Over” combination suggests Louisville’s run defense is going to have a long night against the option.
UTAH STATE AT BYU: This rivalry game is often a popular betting attraction Nevada. This is Mountain West country. BYU used to be a member, and Utah State still is. An opener of BYU -3 was bet down to -2.5 or -2. That’s a BIG deal off the most important number in football betting. Utah State support showed early. But, there WASN’T a buy back on BYU below the field goal. Cougars looked awful last week at Washington.
SATURDAY MARQUEE MATCHUPS
LSU AT FLORIDA: Not too many blockbusters this week. Though, Florida has improved enough under its new head coach that this could be a nice sleeper in terms of influencing the postseason. LSU is knocking on the door of the playoffs at the moment. Tigers opened -2.5, but Gator money has brought that down to -1.5. Once again, a move AWAY from the key number of three. Sharps aren’t in lockstep on Florida. But, those who like the Gators to win bet early. I know some guys that are going to pass on this one to get a better read on Florida for later action.
NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA TECH: Notre Dame has played great since the quarterback change. Virginia Tech was stunned by Old Dominion! That led to early action on the Irish, driving an opener of -4.5 up to -6.5. Sharps who liked ND knew the public would be betting this favorite, and wanted to get in early. Might take the full seven for dog lovers to enter the fray. Remember that Notre Dame jumped from -3.5 to -5.5 last week against Stanford in an eventual blowout.
UTAH AT STANFORD: Nice game in the Pac 12. Stanford’s had a tough travel schedule …and is now dealing with a feisty dog right after battling Oregon and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. Point spread has been painted Stanford -5 all week. It’s a strike against Utah that it hasn’t received early sharp action in this schedule spot. Quants have hit the total. An opener of 48 has been bet down to 46.
AUBURN AT MISSISSIPPI STATE: Two big disappointments in the SEC West. Mississippi State looked awful in losses to Kentucky and Florida. Auburn was upset by LSU, and hasn’t moved the ball on offense nearly as well as expected. An opener of Auburn -3.5 has stood pat, or risen to -4 depending on the book. An opening total of 45.5 (which made little sense based on recent form) has been bet all the way down to a much more logical 41.5. It will take cheap points off turnovers or special teams to take this game into the mid 40’s or higher.
OKLAHOMA VS. TEXAS (in Dallas): Looks like a tug-of-war brewing between Oklahoma -7 and Texas +7.5. Oklahoma hasn’t played anybody yet. The only two “top 50” opponents were Iowa State and Army…and those were non-covers. Oklahoma barely touched the ball in a shocking overtime nailbiter with Army! But, Texas is coming off physical games with TCU and Kansas State, and might wear down in a shootout. Probably the game to watch if you’re only going to watch one game Saturday. Remember it’s been time-changed to an early kickoff for TV.
Back with you tomorrow to run the rest of the NFL. Don’t forget that you can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. The baseball playoffs have started. Be sure to check on combination packages.
Thanks for reading.