Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, September 26, 2018 at 1:00 PM
It was one thing when you only had to deal with Sam Darnold of the New York Jets. Rookie quarterbacks can be very volatile (or just horrible!). You can pick your spots here and there…taking or fading one rookie in a 32-team league.
Then Josh Allen of Buffalo was promoted to starter after Nathan Peterman lived down to his past non-expectations. Two rookies, but both in the same division.
Now, Baker Mayfield has won the starting job in Cleveland with a great second half in relief of Tyrod Taylor against Darnold’s Jets last Thursday. And, Josh Rosen became the new starter in Arizona when Sam Bradford was unable to get anything going with limited mobility and weaponry.
There are 16 games each weekend (except during bye weeks). That means one fourth of the schedule will involve rookies except when they’re playing each other. Bettors like YOU must learn the do’s and don’ts for betting and fading rookies. Here are JIM HURLEY’S thoughts on the matter.
*DON’T bet on a rookie quarterback when the opponent has clearly prioritized that particular game and had time to prepare for that particular quarterback. DO bet on a quarterback getting points from an opponent that has distractions or otherwise will lack motivation.
Darnold caught a break in his career opener in Detroit. That was a non-conference game that the Lions weren’t particularly motivated for with San Francisco and New England on deck. Allen caught Minnesota asleep at the wheel last week in a huge sandwich spot. The Vikings had just played an overtime tie with hated Green Bay. A huge Thursday night game on the road against the LA Rams was on deck. Minnesota mentally no-showed the Bills game, as you know. Teams will mentally no-show through the full season in complicated circumstances like that.
On the other hand, Darnold had a bad game against divisional rival Miami. It’s rare for divisional teams to let you off the hook. Miami had motivation, and some game film to study. Big difference from what Detroit brought to the table.
Josh Rosen may have some good games this season against non-conference opponents, or otherwise flat opposition that don’t give him enough respect. He’s much less likely to thrive vs. motivated defenses, particularly those in the same division.
*DON’T bet on rookie quarterbacks vs. top 10 defenses, particularly those that like to pressure the quarterback. DO bet on rookie quarterbacks as underdogs of more than a touchdown against bottom 10 defenses.
The NFL is very complicated. Modern defenses know how to create false reads and trick quarterbacks into mistakes. Veteran stars know most of the tricks. Rookies who exploited a lot of undersized, slow, and passive defenses in college do not. It’s extremely likely that we’ll see some rookies look like stars one week…then more like Nathan Peterman the next. It’s going to depend on what opposing defenses bring to the table.
Worth noting that this group of rookies in particular looks like it will be adept at coming through the back door vs. soft defenses. That gives you added insurance at higher spreads.
*DON’T bet on rookie quarterbacks who have lost key weapons to injuries. DO bet on rookies who have talented options that can help carry the load.
Injuries are already becoming a big factor in the 2018 season, as they do every year. Some rookies are going to lose teammates they rely on in the best of times to move the ball. Then what are they going to do?! Get sacked before the punter comes on. Be sure you focus on the Injury List for these four teams in particular. An offense that works in Week 5 at full strength may grind to a halt by Week 10 if the unit is short-handed.
One quick note on Josh Allen. He has a super-strong arm that will suit him well in poor winter weather. That’s worth remembering come November and December. He’ll be more likely to complete long bombs…and opposing quarterbacks will see their completion percentages sink down to his level in windy conditions.
JIM HURLEY wins in all conditions! And, he has big plans for this weekend in both college and pro football. And, those plans could well involve relatively starting quarterbacks on both Saturday and Sunday. If you’d like some help finding BIG, JUICY WINNERS…you can purchase BEST BETS in both football and baseball right here at the website with your credit card.
If you have any questions about long term or combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. The baseball playoffs start next week, with the Wildcard games Tuesday and Wednesday (and possibly a tie-breaker somewhere Monday!). October is a great month to be a sports bettor. No reason not to start the fun here in the final week of September.
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