Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, September 21, 2018 at 1:00 PM
This weekend’s college football schedule is lousy. You’ve probably noticed that already. Instead of being excited about betting TV games, the general public is deciding whether or not to even turn the TV on Saturday. How can something like Stanford/Oregon be the showcase in prime time? Wisconsin at Iowa? That should be the third option in the earliest TV window.
I’m confident that YOU aren’t thinking like that. If you’re a student here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping, you don’t bet for entertainment. You bet to make money. That said, even many of you may have fallen into the trap of focusing mostly on the Power 5 conferences. Those schools get the most media coverage. There’s probably at least one or two teams you’ve been an avid fan of since you were a kid. You intelligently focus on what you know best…and that’s what you know best.
This weekend’s slate gives you an opportunity to broaden your horizons and think about the next level of conferences. The American Athletic, Conference USA, the MAC, the Sun Belt, the Mountain West, and a few of the Independents. I’ve shown you in the past that games involving teams in those conferences can offer the best value. You know my only 200-unit release this season was Boise State (-) at home over Connecticut. That was an off-the-radar game that was an absolute gift.
Here are a few reasons why those conferences are vulnerable.
*Less media coverage means real betting advantages get less exposure.
*Oddsmakers don’t pay much attention to these leagues, largely copying the lines of each other rather than really thinking about talent and situations.
*There are much wider talent distances from top to bottom. Some of the bad teams are REALLY horrible, and have no chance to compete against talented, motivated opponents. Many of the top teams know they need to run up the score to get media respect for postseason consideration and recruiting.
*There are some very good coaches at those schools…men who are destined to be at major colleges in short order. Heck, that’s the feeding ground! Make headlines in Houston, and you’ll soon be the head coach of Texas. Win at Central Florida, and your alma mater will be calling you, begging you to come save the day. There are also some bad coaches at those schools…desperation choices at programs that don’t have the resources to attract coaching stars.
Obviously, it’s very tough to jump in cold and try to learn the dynamics of all these teams and conferences now. I know many of you did that work over the summer, and are reaping the benefits on a weekly basis. For those of you interested in expanding your current college repertoire, here are a few assignments you can consider for this weekend.
*Pick ONE of the conferences I listed earlier, and focus on its schedule this week. It could be a conference close to you in geographic proximity. If you’re a new legal better in Mississippi, the Sun Belt is an obvious choice. Maybe you enjoy handicapping the Pac 12, and adding in the Mountain West makes sense for non-conference games and bowl matchups. Choose one that makes sense for your situation.
*Grab those summer newsstand annuals you still have on a shelf somewhere and grab the names of projected PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS at the skill positions. It won’t take long because there are only a dozen or so teams in those conferences. Know who was supposed to matter in 2018.
*Review early box scores from the first three weeks to see if those PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS have actually mattered. Who’s been getting the job done? Who’s turned out to be a disappointment? Who suffered an injury and will be out for awhile?
You don’t even need to bet with this information. Just have it handy as you monitor the markets and scoreboard results. Hey…if you see a potential market mistake, it’s okay to take a flyer for a minimum bet. Winning bettors can trust their gut. For now, you’re thinking about positioning yourself for the rest of the season. What you learn with this week’s homework assignment should help you pick winners in a new conference through October and November…and in the bowls. (A great side benefit of studying minor conferences is that any of them will send several teams to bowls because there are too many bowls!)
Oh, a lot of games in these conferences are on TV these days. That didn’t used to be the case…though Mountain West action was on locally in Las Vegas because of UNLV. Now, you have a chance to put your eyes on many of these lesser leagues if you hunt around your program guides.
Maybe I’ll have something big for my clients this week in one of those “mid-majors.” KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased at this website by credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Be sure to check on combination packages that include Major League Baseball through the postseason when you call.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your attendance and hard work. I trust you’ll make the most of this weekend while your “square” buddies are bored to death with the TV schedule. It’s probably good for those guys to take a week off given how shaky big “ranked” favorites have been lately. Will they ever learn not to load up on overpriced teams? You’ve already learned. That’s why you’re with me today. I’ll see you again on Monday for our next class.