Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 at 1:00 PM
JIM HURLEY has a quick question for you. Would the #8 team in the country in college football only beat Ball State 24-16 and Vanderbilt 22-17 at home? Seems pretty insane, right? But, you know that happened. Notre Dame is the #8 team in the nation, despite not impressing in its last two home games.
Michigan State? Carried a respectful ranking down to Tempe to face Arizona State. Went back to East Lansing with a loss. Most of the Big Ten has a result it’s embarrassed about. That’s the conference with the huge TV contracts with ESPN, ABC, and FOX. Notre Dame has an exclusive contract with NBA for home games, and is coveted by the other networks for its road games.
TV networks hype their teams because they want you to watch their games. Those networks aren’t going to say “you know, the teams we like to show you just aren’t very good this year.” Or, “they aren’t very good yet…but wait until November.” Networks need you to watch NOW. And then again in November.
Smart handicappers don’t fall for media hype. They don’t watch pregame shows to listen to puff pieces about how brilliant all the coaches are (most aren’t), or how noble all the young athletes are (many are great kids…but great kids who haven’t yet learned how to execute against quality opponents!). Smart handicappers look at what the players can do, and what they can’t. Smart handicappers DEBUNK what the media is telling them. Then, they make money with their bets because the markets are overly influenced (both oddsmakers and public bettors) by what they see and hear on TV.
Right now, the SEC is the best conference in the nation by a mile. If you had to stick Notre Dame in the 14-team SEC…where would you put them? The Irish were just outgained by Vanderbilt 420-380 in South Bend. It was a bit of a miracle they won given all the points Vandy left on the field. Vandy’s not scaring anybody in the SEC title race.
Alabama is crushing against the spread, even though everyone knew the Crimson Tide was the best team in the nation starting the season. Georgia is still great, probably Final Four caliber until proven otherwise. Auburn should be favored over Notre Dame on a neutral field. LSU just beat Auburn between the hedges, and has an earlier impressive win over Miami. Mississippi State sure looks good…and wouldn’t have sweat a home game with Ball State.
Notre Dame might actually be around #8 in the SEC given its form the past two weeks!
Okay, you can believe the hype about the SEC. That’s legitimate so far. But, you should have drawn conclusions based on your own research rather than what ESPN or CBS was telling you.
Here are JIM HURLEY’S tips for avoiding media hype.
*Trust the market FIRST
*Look for mistakes the market might be making
*Look at the skill sets of teams
*Look at the straight up and ATS histories of coaches
*Study box scores to learn true strengths and weaknesses
You can take TV pundits and virtual “advertising” for teams and leagues out of the picture by ignoring them and focusing on these keys. It’s you vs. betting line. It’s definitely NOT “you and your TV buddies” vs. the betting line. They’re not there to help you win. They’re pushing product.
Now, we’re not saying don’t WATCH games on TV. Do that with the volume down. Las Vegas sportsbooks have it right! Put a lot of games on TV to study the flow of play yourself. Don’t bother with the jibber/jabber of play-by-play guys and color announcers (who are there to hype the participants, not report reality).
You will never meet a professional gambler who says that he owes all of his success to what TV announcers say. And, you’ll probably never meet a professional gambler who used to be a national media personality, or a former player or coach. Some were athletes growing up. But, there’s no such thing as a former professional player or coach who “learned” the secrets of winning and took that to Las Vegas to make a fortune. You already know for a fact that Vegas (and now New Jersey, Mississippi, and a couple of other stats) would gladly welcome the action of any retired star from a major sport.
Here’s a quick hint for finding mis-priced “public” teams. Take the current AP rankings, then write the ATS performances so far this year by each team. While gathering those records, calculate the size of the covers or non-covers. Pay particular attention to any games played by ranked teams against each other. Ohio State, for example, might be a good cover team vs. outmatched opposition, but struggle to play to expectations vs. teams with real threats on the roster.
For more help picking college and pro winners, you can purchase BEST BETS in both football and baseball from a legendary PROVEN WINNER right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term or combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-888-777-4155. You can win seven days a week if you’re on our full program that includes Major League Baseball through the World Series.
Stop losing on your own because you watch too much TV. GET ALL THE MONEY with BIG, JUICY WINNERS from JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!