Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, September 17, 2018 at 1:00 PM
Several college football teams endured an unscheduled week off when hurricane Florence stormed ashore in the Carolinas last week. Smart handicappers will anticipate rustiness from all programs involved in those postponements or cancellations.
Why? Because an early-season break is the WORST possible time in the schedule in terms of developing rhythm, consistency, and confidence. Coaches learned this a few years ago. You long time bettors might recall that some coaches would delay the starts of their season thinking an extra week or practice would help. Others would take a break in Week Two or Week Three. What those coaches learned is that nothing gets players up to speed faster than real game action! It was a shame for handicappers because a big betting edge disappeared. But, it was better for college football because schedules became more standardized.
Florence wreaked havoc with that. And, now many teams missed out on game action AND practice while the rest of the country was getting more in synch. I should make something clear up front. I said that smart handicappers should anticipate rustiness from “all” programs. Certainly, some will handle the challenge and come out and get results. But, I’m confident that more won’t than will…which means the percentages are in your favor. If you expect rustiness from “all,” you’ll get it from more than half…and that’s enough to make money. (Those of you who like betting first halves should consider anticipating slow starts for rusty teams, particularly any rusty favorites.)
Here’s your homework for today.
*First, make a list of all the teams that had games cancelled last week. With that list, separate the teams who didn’t miss practice from those who did. For example, Southern Miss didn’t make a trip to play Appalachian State, so the Golden Eagles were still able to practice. Teams based in the heart of the affected areas were not. You want to know who was who. You want to punish the most affected teams most harshly in your analysis. No room for sympathy when you bet money in Las Vegas! I’m sure those of you who have just started in states like New Jersey and Mississippi are learning that as well.
*Second, evaluate playing time for all the PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS on those teams in prior action. Some may have had reduced playing time in weeks one and two because of early blowouts vs. cupcakes. They’re really behind the learning curve for 2018 action. Others will take less of a hit because their stars were mostly up to speed already. Count up the passes thrown this season for each affected quarterback. Refresh your knowledge of his available weapons.
*Third, and most importantly, evaluate the readiness of this week’s OPPONENTS. Spend some time looking at the key stats from last week for any team that’s facing a hurricane affected squad. Any opponent that’s already up to speed…in good form…and not negatively influenced in any way by THE MOTIVATION FACTOR will be in position to own the point of attack and beat expectations handily against a rusty foe. These are the games where you can consider stepping out for 100-units, or maybe even 200-units on a well-positioned power side. My only 200-unit play so far this season has been Boise State in its rout of Connecticut. Imagine how ugly the scoreboard and stats would have been if Connecticut had come in rusty!
I’m purposely avoiding more specifics because this angle could be an important part of my weekend releases. I’m not going to talk about it again on Friday. I’m not going to give you any more hints than I already have about possible major moves on the betting board. My job as creator of the Advanced College of Sports Betting and Handicapping is to guide you in the right direction with lectures and homework assignments. The rest is up to you. You need to find best positioned opponents at good prices. You need to find mediocre, rusty offenses that are likely to struggle through the full 60 minutes. I have faith that you hardest workers will have no trouble doing that.
For those of you who prefer more direct guidance, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased at this website by credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Be sure to ask about offers that include the rest of baseball with college and pro football. The busy sports schedule allows full-timers to invest seven days a week. I understand that many of you are relatively new to real-world legal betting. This option is available to you if you believe you’re not ready to dive into homework assignments with full confidence.
For those of you who are interested in baseball handicapping, we’ll talk about that again once the playoffs arrive. Great to have seen so many of you with us during the past summer. I believe very profitable opportunities will be on the board in the postseason. The public is still in love with too many of the wrong teams.
You college football specialists have your homework. If you’re into NFL only, we’ll likely talk again about pro football in our Friday coursework. The Dean of Sports Handicapping will see you then. Thanks so much for your attendance and hard work. I’m gratified that I can pass along what I’ve learned from decades in the industry to the next generation.