Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, September 14, 2018 at 3:00 PM
Time to look at how the Wise Guys have been betting this weekend’s NFL. I’ll run through all the matchups in official Nevada Rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
INDIANAPOLIS AT WASHINGTON: An opener of Washington -4.5 has been bet up to -5.5. Stores testing six (a key number, though not as important as three or seven) do see Colts money come in. That could mean a tug-of-war between Washington -5.5 and Indy +6 through the weekend. Sharps who liked the Redskins got in early at -4.5 and -5. Dog lovers will take the full six whenever they see it.
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: Atlanta has been bet up from -5.5 to -6. A few spots on the schedule this week where that six is going to loom large. The public usually likes taking favorites under a touchdown. But, it’s tougher in spots where the underdog has a quarterback who can move the ball. We’ll have to see if there’s interest in Carolina now that the six is in play.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY: No line yet pending the status of Aaron Rodgers. It would be crazy to play him against a physical divisional defense that wouldn’t mind taking a 15-yard penalty to take a shot at a one-legged quarterback. Most in the markets assume the Vikings would be around -7 as a road favorite over DeShone Kizer if he gets the start.
LA CHARGERS AT BUFFALO: This one opened at -7 because Buffalo looked so awful last week. Only interest on the Chargers so far. We’re seeing -7.5 at most places, and -8’s are out there. That’s going to be a popular choice in six-point teasers with sharps. You long timers know that the Wise Guys like crossing both the three and the seven in one move. You can do that with the Chargers at -7.5 or -8, taking them down to -1.5 or -2 in two-teamers.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: Took awhile for this one to go up because of the injury to Marcos Mariota last week. Stores opened at either Houston -2 or -2.5. Some interest on the two for the favorite. But, in this line range, Tennessee would likely get hit hard at +3. Houston wasn’t that impressive at New England last week. Tennessee disappointed at Miami…but would likely bring more intensity to a divisional home game.
KANSAS CITY AT PITTSBURGH: An opener of Pittsburgh -4 has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. Different stores are getting different reads from their clientele. Some sharp syndicates are looking for ways to bet the Chiefs for value. It’s not likely the public would drive the line as high as -6 given Pittsburgh’s sluggish play at Cleveland last week. The Over/Under here jumped from 50.5 to 53.5. I only mention totals when there are big moves. The quants are definitely expecting a lot of points and yards from both offenses. KC played a high scoring game against the Chargers. Pittsburgh posted a bunch of yards at Cleveland, but turned the ball over six times.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Looks like a tug-of-war all weekend between Jets -2.5 and Miami +3. Seems that differing groups LOVE their bets at the varying lines. Jets fans (and some sharps who like Sam Darnold) want the hosts below a field goal. Old school guys who don’t trust rookie quarterbacks as favorites can’t believe they can get a full three with the Dolphins. Could be a very heavily bet game now that money from New Jersey has joined the sphere of influence.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY: Philadelphia is clearly the popular betting choice at -3. Stores that test -3.5 do see Tampa Bay money come in from sharps though. Some stores have decided not to test the hook…and just go head-to-head against squares (the public). At least so far. I’m going to guess a tug-of-war Sunday between Eagles -3 and Bucs +3.5.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans has been painted -9 most of the week. Sports books wouldn’t dream of dropping to -8.5 because that would bring in a million six-point teasers at Saints -2.5. The public would normally love the Saints here…but the public took a bath on New Orleans -10 vs. Tampa Bay last weekend. I still believe New Orleans will get the square money over the weekend, at least bringing -9.5 into play.
ARIZONA AT LA RAMS: Openers of Rams -12.5 or -13 have hung around that range all week. Not a heavily bet game. Some shops will move the line just to see if that generates any action. Stores don’t want games with NO betting because then there’s no shot to make money. Old-school sharps who like double digit dogs have already taken the Cardinals at +13, and will take more if the public plays chalk here in advance of kickoff.
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: Back to another game around six, with an opener of SF -5.5 now painted -6 everywhere. Detroit looked awful last week vs. the Jets. San Francisco was competitive at a tough road site. I don’t think the public is ready to lay the full six with the Niners Sunday, but I could be wrong. That is a “local” team in Nevada in terms of TV games and media coverage. My guess is that guys who want to bet San Francisco will do so in money line parlays and teasers.
NEW ENGLAND AT JACKSONVILLE: Great game. A rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game in Foxboro that should have been won by the Jaguars. New England opened at -2 and was bet down to -1.5. Patriots have an inconsistent recent history on the road against teams that play good (or great) defense. Notable that sharps didn’t even wait to see if squares would drive the line higher. Wise Guys jumped in on the two, and will take some more if it comes back into play.
OAKLAND AT DENVER: This one’s been sitting on Denver -6 all week. Nobody wants to bet the Raiders. That was true before last Monday’s blowout loss to the Rams. More true now, even though the Raiders will be moving to Vegas in the future. Denver doesn’t seem ready to lay this many points in the minds of sharps and squares alike. It’s a late game…so people will find a reason to bet it Sunday. Like with SF, the Broncos will show up in a lot of money line parlays and teasers because people figure they’ll at least win the game.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: An opener of Dallas -3.5 was bet quickly down to Dallas -3. It’s stayed there all week. I know some quants who like the Giants because New York did get some yards and points on the board against Jacksonville’s great defense last week. What can look ugly to the naked eye can be pretty to a computer. Dallas was ugly all the way around in its 16-8 loss at Carolina. Sharps love the Giants at +3.5, and some still like them at +3. Dallas would draw interest at -2.5…though that doesn’t seem likely to come into play.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO: Bears opened -3 (which would have seemed crazy in the past), and got bet UP to -3.5! A lot of respect from sharps for this new head coach. And, Seattle’s fallen off the map of late in terms of Wise Guy respect AND public sentiment. Seahawks do get the largest share of interest at +3.5. I’m interested to see what happens in the markets on this one all weekend. It’s going to be a heavily bet game because the public (and the media) is excited about the Bears again. You should have heard the roars in local sports books when Chicago jumped out to that big lead over Green Bay.
I have my eye on a few spots this weekend. You can always purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages with football AND baseball that offer the best value.
Thanks for reading. Don’t forget that we’ll be running Thursdays and Fridays through football. Thursday reports will cover Thursday and Friday action, as well as marquee college games on the Saturday schedule. Friday’s are reserved for weekend NFL. Best of luck to you this weekend.