Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Monday, September 10, 2018 at 7:00 AM
Normally I’m not one to review my winners from the prior weekend here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. But, my first major release of the 2018 football season provides such a great tutorial in itself, that I really must.
Boise State (-31) over Connecticut 62-7 was a harmonic convergence of everything I stand for as a handicapper. This was one of those games where I truly believed I had a 100% chance of winning straight up, and a 90% chance of covering the spread. That may strike some of you as unbelievable given the point spread. We had the full game point spread covered easily by halftime (41-0)!
Why was I so excited about this game?
PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS
Boise State has several of them, UCONN may not have any of relevance…at least when the Huskies are matched up against opponents who know what they’re doing. Boise is led by experienced veteran quarterback Brett Rypien…who knows how to distribute the ball. Look at how dynamic Boise’s attack was Saturday night.
400 rushing yards (8.9 yards-per-carry)
418 passing yards (on just 33 attempts)
818 total yards on almost 10.5 yard-per-play
Since Connecticut just lost at HOME to Central Florida 56-17 (a 39-point margin), I was confident they couldn’t hang with Boise on the fabled blue turf. That’s one of the toughest locales in the nation for any first-time visitor.
Oh, Boise State won at Troy 56-20 back in Week One. That’s a much tougher challenge than playing at home against a doormat like UCONN.
THE MOTIVATION FACTOR
Boise State knows that it NEEDS to win by huge victory margins to impress pollsters, and to position itself to be the top rated mid-major heading to the postseason. It has to make a statement every chance it gets. It sure wouldn’t hurt that a team from the East Coast not far from the media center of New York City was involved.
I also want to mention the “motivation” for bouncing back from a poor offensive season. Boise State was embarrassed to only rank #57 nationally in total offense last season. This team is usually an offensive juggernaut. What better way to let the home fans know that this season will be different than to obliterate a helpless opponent. When I saw this was the only home game in September for the Broncos, I knew they’d bring peak intensity. Important lesson: leave no stone unturned when looking for THE MOTIVATION FACTOR!
Folks, it’s not always this easy. But, sometimes, it really IS this easy if you apply the classic fundamentals that have proven the test of time for decades. And, you really have to step out with your betting units when an opportunity like this arises. It doesn’t do much good to recognize the motherlode if you only risk 15 to 25 units on edges like these. They called for…heck they YELLED OUT for a massive 200-unit play. Again, it was 41-0 at halftime. I won total yardage for the game 818-193.
This is why I had you studying all summer…isolating the PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS on every college and NFL team. This is why I emphasize THE MOTIVATION FACTOR so you can see when a favorite will be dialed up to “11” against an underdog that’s shaking in its cleats.
Though my approach works year-round, college football is probably the single sport that allows for this magnitude of domination. You won’t see any yardage edges of 818-193 in the NFL. You won’t see comparable dominance in college or pro basketball. Even the Baltimore Orioles don’t lose by comparable margins on the baseball diamond, and they’re trying to lose!
If you missed out on that play, my condolences. The good news is that we’ll likely have a few more in coming weeks. You’ve already seen a bunch of blowouts. All the national championship contenders know they have to win big. But, a lot of teams who “imagine” they’re that good are also trying to run up the score. They’ll be exposed eventually…but not by cupcakes in September. I’ve seen some pretty bad teams win by huge scores against their “paycheck” opponents because it’s more acceptable to run up the score than it used to be.
Oh, congrats also to those of you on my 50-unit top release Sunday on Carolina (-3) over Dallas 16-8. That was more of a grinder based on the power of a home defense. Ticket cashes just as well.
If you’d like assistance finding smart bets every day of the week in all sports, KELSO STURGEON’S top plays can always be purchased at this website by credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours.
I know that many of you regular students are do-it-yourselfers. I’m honored that you attend my classes for advice every week. Just remember that signing up with an industry legend is likely to be an investment that pays off over the course of a full season.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping appreciates your hard work. Not much time to celebrate because it’s back to the grindstone. Plenty of baseball this week. Two NFL games Monday night and a busy football schedule picking up again on Thursday. See if you can find games this weekend where talent and motivation line up in a way that oddsmakers just can’t capture. I believe you have a much stronger sense NOW of the true power of my approach.