Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, September 7, 2018 at 3:00 PM
Now that the NFL has started, we’re back to our usual schedule focusing on how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting Sunday and Monday pro football action. I always take the games in official Nevada Rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: Of course, in this first week, we’ll be talking about line moves that started MONTHS ago when lines first went up. That will be a bit tricky in some spots. Sharps may have liked one team at one price in July and another at a different price yesterday. This game opened at Steelers -7 long ago, dropped initially to -6…and then went all the way down to -4 when it was clear that Pittsburgh’s star running back wasn’t going to play. The game looks to have settled on four. The public will probably take the Steelers on game day at what feels like a cheap price. Sharps may fade any move off the four.
SAN FRANCISCO AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota opened at -5, and has been bet up in recent days to as high as -6.5. A lot of sharp respect for this Vikings defense, and for the improvement that’s likely on offense with Kirk Cousins. I do think Niner money would hit the board if the full seven comes into play. Wouldn’t be shocked if we settle on 6.5. Nobody’s forgotten how well SF ended last season.
CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS: An early opener of Indy -1.5 rose to -3 when it was clear a few weeks ago that Andrew Luck was going to be ready to go. This week, sharp action is hitting Cincinnati on the key number. I’m expecting a tug-of-war between Indianapolis -2.5 and Cincinnati +3 through Sunday morning. Getting Luck below a field goal is going to appeal to a lot of people. Dog lovers see value on the Bengals with the full three.
BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore opened at -3 with juice or -3.5 months ago. It’s all the way up to -7.5 now with news that Nathan Peterman is going to start at quarterback for Buffalo. He was a disaster in limited action last year. Rookie Josh Allen of Wyoming apparently isn’t ready yet. His accuracy will always be an issue. Though, his impressive arm strength might be very helpful when the weather worsens in Buffalo later this season.
JACKSONVILLE AT NY GIANTS: This one’s been stuck on Jax -3 all summer. Tough to see it moving off the key number. Many sharps do expect improvement from the Giants this season with a new head coach and better health. But, there’s also a lot of love for the Jaguars strong defense. Sharps would hit Jacksonville -2.5 hard, or the Giants +3.5. We’ll have to see if the public picks a side this weekend. Having sports books in New Jersey could create some interesting wrinkles for Giants and Jets games.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: The line has been at New Orleans -9.5 ever since it was announced that Ryan Fitzpatrick would start for Tampa Bay. You probably remember that Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games. Telling that sharps didn’t drive the line up to -10, which is a key number. That shows you they think this line is too high…and would hit the Bucs hard if +10 shows up after public betting.
HOUSTON AT NEW ENGLAND: An opener of Patriots -7 has mostly been at 6.5 all summer. Houston when healthy is a playoff caliber team…and that level of performance can hang within a touchdown of the Patriots in Foxboro. Might see a tug-of-war here between the public on the Pats -6.5 and sharps taking the Texans at anything better. Squares (the public) love laying points with the Pats.
TENNESSEE AT MIAMI: An old opener of Tennessee -2.5 was bet down to -1.5 or -1. We’re still seeing the line in that range. Tough to like either side here. Though, if you’re high on Tennessee this season (some respected pundits are), then you’re going to take -1 and probably -1.5 as well. Miami will have to win some games before sharps or squares start investing.
KANSAS CITY AT LA CHARGERS: Definitely a tug-of-war spot here between Kansas City +3.5 and the Chargers -3. The market has LAC winning the AFC West this season after Oakland’s offseason adventures under new head coach Jon Gruden. Kansas City is starting a new quarterback who may or may not be ready. Those who think Patrick Mahomes is ready love taking +3.5. Those who don’t lay the three with Philip Rivers.
SEATTLE AT DENVER: A pretty solid three now, though Seattle gets more of the money at that price. A drop down to Denver -2.5 would bring in sharps and squares alike on that strong home field. I’ll be watching this line all weekend. Both teams are right on the cusp between “Wildcard caliber” and “not good enough” according to the guys I’ve talked to. Will one make a statement Sunday?
DALLAS AT CAROLINA: Another game right on the key number of three…and another game where the respected dog gets more of the money at that price. More stores are testing -2.5 here than with the game right above. That means more sharps are betting Dallas than are betting Seattle. I think we’ll see a tug-of-war here between Carolina -2.5 and Dallas +3.
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA: An opener of pick-em moved to Arizona -1. A lot of question marks here. Both teams have new quarterbacks. Arizona has a new head coach. I don’t know of any sharps who have made a stand on either team yet.
CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: This game got interesting when Chicago acquired Khalil Mack from Oakland. Sharps (and some squares) are taking Chicago at +7.5 or better. As I write this midday Friday, some stores are testing Green Bay -7 with -120 vigorish. This should be a HEAVILY bet game in a Sunday night divisional rivalry matching teams with strong betting followings. Right now, I expect a tug-of-war between GB -7 and Chicago +7.5.
NY JETS AT DETROIT: This one has been painted Detroit -6.5 for as long as I can remember. Didn’t change even when the Jets announced they’d be starting a rookie quarterback. You can tell that sharps DON’T like Detroit because they didn’t drive the line higher to the key number of seven. That means they’d jump in hard on the Jets at the full touchdown.
LA RAMS AT OAKLAND: This game opened at pick-em months ago. It’s now all the way up to Rams -4 because Oakland’s made so many bad headlines in the offseason. Has Gruden already lost the team? He’s been getting rid of guys who weren’t buying in, that’s for sure. Sharps loved the Rams at a field goal or less…and some still kept betting them at -3.5. The public could drive this line higher by kickoff if it has a good week betting favorites before then.
I have my own strong opinions on this week’s full football schedule. You can always purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages with football AND baseball that offer the best value.
Thanks for reading. See you again next week. We’ll be running Thursdays and Fridays through football. Those Thursday reports will cover Thursday and Friday action, as well as marquee college games on the Saturday schedule. Our Friday reports go back years…and always focus on sharp betting in Sunday and Monday NFL action.