Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, August 31, 2018 at 1:00 PM
From this point forward, Friday’s will be reserved for our sharp reports for weekend NFL. This week, we look at marquee matchups in college football. Beginning next week, our Thursday report will cover Thursday Night football and the college blockbusters.
As always, I look at the games in official rotation order…
TEXAS AT MARYLAND: Earlier this summer, Texas opened up around -8 or -9. At lot has happened since then, particularly with Maryland’s program in turmoil because of off-the-field occurrences. Texas is up to -13.5 as I write this, with some stores testing -14. Sharps aren’t currently laying the points with the Horns this high. Maryland gets dog lovers when +14 is in play. I can tell you that sharps do expect good things from Texas this year…and are looking to back them vs. USC in a couple of weeks.
BYU AT ARIZONA: A lot of support for BYU as an underdog earlier this week. A distant opener of Arizona -15 had come down to -14. Suddenly it was -12 or -11.5. You’re hearing a lot about Arizona’s talented quarterback. Justifiably. Sharps believe there was too much hype about the team in general coming into this game. Wise Guys are on BYU at anything over +12. Some kept betting on that number.
UNLV AT USC: This isn’t a blockbuster. But, I’m including this game because it’s an attraction in Las Vegas. USC has a very strong following in this city. And, the town WANTS to bet UNLV if the Rebels could ever get good. Here, an opener of USC -28 was bet down to -26.5 or -26. You’d expect the flow to go the other way given how the public, and USC fans, loving laying chalk. So, important early “market” respect for UNLV.
CINCINNATI AT UCLA: Some skepticism from sharps about UCLA this season. An opener of UCLA -15.5 is down to -14.5. I would expect to see some public money on the Bruins if -14 comes into play. We’ll see. Squares (the public) may have lost enough in recent years on UCLA.
WASHINGTON VS. AUBURN (in Atlanta): This is the game everyone’s waiting for. Nevada doesn’t have a Pac 12 team…but it’s definitely Pac 12 country in terms of betting interest. Is Washington good enough to reach the Final Four? Some stores have them as low as 4/1 to win the title, even though that’s still behind the likes of Alabama and Clemson. An opener of Auburn -2.5 has been bet down to -2. This is a neutral field game…but Auburn is going to have a loud supporting crowd in Atlanta. Sharps AREN’T betting Auburn below the key number of three, which tells you something.
OLE MISS VS. TEXAS TECH (in Houston): Nice sleeper game that’s been time changed to early in the day (morning in Las Vegas). Should be very high scoring with these offenses. Ole Miss opened at -1 long ago. Texas Tech has been laying -2.5 for several days now. That looks to be the ceiling. Sharps would POUND Ole Miss if +3 comes into play.
WEST VIRGINIA VS. TENNESSEE (in Charlotte): West Virginia is getting a lot of market and media respect this season, while everyone assumes Tennessee is in a rebuilding year. An opener of West Virginia -8 (already high on a neutral field) has been bet up to -9.5. Tennessee would draw dog lovers at +10. That might come into play if the public keeps hearing West Virginia is for real from TV announcers all morning.
NORTH CAROLINA AT CALIFORNIA: An opener of California -5 was bet up to -7. We’re now seeing some stores test -7.5. You regulars know that’s a big deal because seven is a key number. Even the full seven wasn’t drawing UNC interest. Let’s see if the hook will. Might be a tug-of-war between Cal -7 and UNC +7.5. Or, maybe there’s still no interest in the mediocre ACC dog travelling cross-country.
MICHIGAN AT NOTRE DAME: Michigan opened -1 because many oddsmakers in Las Vegas think Jim Harbaugh is a god. You’ll recall they overrated the Wolverines last year. The game flipped to Notre Dame being the favorite in short order. But, Michigan money has come in to center the game around pick-em or ND -1. That’s still a lot of respect for Harbaugh because the public usually bets the Irish at cheap prices in South Bend. Really looking forward to seeing how both teams perform here.
LOUISVILLE AT ALABAMA: It’s not expected to be a great game because Louisville lost so much key talent. An opener of Alabama -25.5 has been bet down to -24.5 or -24. Dog lovers got in over the “slightly” key number of 24. Will the public play the Tide Saturday, or leave this game alone to watch others?
MIAMI VS. LSU (in Arlington): Miami is up from -3 to -3.5. That’s a big half point of course because it rose off the most common landing point in football. And, this is a neutral field game. So, sharp respect and public interest in the Hurricanes. Plus, many thing LSU is going to be in trouble this season. Some offshore sites had Ed Orgeron as most likely to be fired first, until the off-field headlines hit Maryland and Ohio State. Sharps LOVE Miami at -3. But, the line hasn’t yet risen to -4.
VIRGINIA TECH AT FLORIDA STATE: Sharps apparently love Florida State! An early opener of FSU -5.5 is all the way up to -7.5 at many spots. Though, Virginia Tech money does come in above the key number. This could be another tug-of-war game, with the line hopping between FSU -7 and Virginia Tech +7.5 from now through Monday. Sharps have told me they believe the return of FSU’s injured quarterback is going to provide a big boost. Some of the quants have FSU within a field goal of Clemson at the top of the ACC. Those two will play in Tallahassee during the regular season.
I definitely have opinions in some of those games I’ll be passing along to my clients. You can purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages that offer the best value.
Thanks for reading. I appreciate how many of you check in for these sharp reports year-in and year-out. We’ll go to Thursdays and Fridays through the football season with the start of NFL next week.