Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, August 17, 2018 at 3:00 PM
If you’ve been following the NFL betting markets this week, you’ve seen some major line moves already come through. Two steamed favorites won Thursday night (New England and Green Bay). Steamed totals did well. Sharps are making the right moves at the right times.
I’m hearing from my sources, and noticing on my own, that many of these moves are connected to expectations for backup quarterbacks.
*If sharps (professional wagerers) are expecting production from the backups, particularly with A LOT of passing, then they’re betting that team and/or the Over.
*If sharps are expecting unimpressive play with a lot of incomplete passes and sacks, then they’re fading that team or betting the Under.
It’s not enough to just know the quarterback rotations. That information is fairly well-publicized now thanks to the internet. Sharps have developed a very good sense of how those players are going to perform on the field. Some young QBs you never heard of are driving the field and throwing touchdown passes. Some veterans who might be expected to do well aren’t getting much done. Sharps are reading those tea leaves very well.
Though, I have to admit that the sharps may have been catching some breaks. If you like a game to go Over, and it goes Over by three or four touchdowns…you probably got a little lucky. If you like a 4-point favorite to cover…and they win by 17 or more, same thing. Sharps are aware of this, and won’t let success go to their heads. Squares (the general public) often get way overconfident after an easy win, before giving that money back with futures bets they shouldn’t have made. Respect the market, and it will respect you.
What are sharps looking at with the backup quarterbacks:
*First, how does this guy fit into the coach’s system? Some college quarterbacks are ready to fire away in the right system against NFL backups in August. They’re not ready to start a regular season game. They’re not ready to read disguised blitzes. But, just dropping back and finding a receiver in a good system against generic defenses? Some of these guys will put numbers on the board. Sharps have done an excellent job of finding those guys.
*Second, does this guy avoid turnovers? You can’t score points if you’re throwing the ball to the wrong team, or losing possession when getting sacked. A few backup quarterbacks have struggled in this regard. Sharps have dodged those bullets, or anticipated them. College histories play a role here. But, so does an understanding of issues with the offensive line…or a realization that a head coach is in over his head. A lot of NFL turnovers are caused by poor pass protection.
*Finally, how much of a fight is the opposing defense going to put up? What often looks like a bet “on” a quarterback or rotation of quarterbacks is actually a bet against the opposing team’s defense. Or, a bet on the Over is a bet against both team’s defenses. While gambling media focuses a lot of attention on who will be getting snaps…sharps are doing the extra work to cover all the bases. If you’re not winning with your own picks so far, it means you should be doing some extra work.
SQUARES often don’t know who the backup quarterbacks are, and don’t even think much about system fit, offensive line, or opposing defenses. They bet their favorite teams, play some hunches, and often “invent” stories in their heads about which team is going to care and which team isn’t. If they win a bet easily, they often mis-interpret what caused that to happen and give the money back the next day, or the next week.
SHARPS look at production from a variety of different angles, waiting until they’ve studied all the information to draw their conclusions. Then they attack vulnerable lines whether it’s a point spread or a total. And, it’s all backed by sound bankroll strategies rather than whims.
I should also mention that sharps CREATE the line moves you’ve been seeing…and they don’t bet AFTER the line has moved. Too many squares see a game move a couple of points, and figure “so-and-so must be the right side.” Well, it WAS the right side at the old line…and after the first one-point move. It’s not any more! That’s why the line stopped moving. Sharps stopped betting. Sharps don’t bet teams, they bet prices.
Your friend in Las Vegas (or wherever I may be at any given moment as the world of legal sports betting goes national) will always try to find you the best investments at the best prices. You can purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages that offer the best value.
I’ve mentioned in prior articles that I’ve been travelling for work this summer. Great to see new parts of the country that are excited about sports betting…and old-school media finally providing information from a market perspective. Long overdue. Myself and earlier colleagues have been telling you how the sharps have bet for YEARS right here on these pages. YOU know where to find the best information!
Thanks for reading. See you Monday. Next week is BIG in betting because the NFL has its “dress rehearsal” games. Can’t wait!