Submitted by Richie B. Oddsmakers Consensus on Monday, August 13, 2018 at 12:00 PM
Even if you’re not a big baseball fan or bettor, you’re surely aware that the Chicago Cubs had a dramatically rally in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday night to beat the Washington Nationals.
Washington carried a 3-0 lead into the Cubs’ final at bat. Chicago loaded the bases, then won on a walk-off grand slam home run.
Sure, walk-off grand slams are rare. But, I couldn’t believe the number of bettors who are calling that “their worst beat ever,” or “one of the worst beats in the history of baseball.” Give me a break! This one got a lot of attention because…
*Many squares (public bettors) were on Washington with Max Scherzer because it was a “steal” to get him so cheap. Squares love betting any big-name pitcher at what seems like a cheap favorite price.
*Many squares had included Scherzer in parlays because they love putting all the top pitchers in parlays.
*More than a few sharps (professional wagerers) were also getting gradings to Scherzer, but not quite to the same degree. Maybe they had their projections 5-10 cents higher.
*The game was nationally televised.
Huge audience. Then the grand slam went viral on social media for anyone who hadn’t watched the game.
Sure, that was dramatic. But, the AGONY from losing bettors was created because they had all mentally begun “spending their winnings” before the game was over. “No way the Nationals were going to blow a 3-0 lead in the ninth! This bet’s going to win. My parlays are going to win. I’m the king of the world!”
Rallies from three runs down happen all the time. Ninth inning rallies happen all the time. Only difference here was that people were celebrating their wins too soon in a big TV game.
You know what? That wasn’t even the most amazing thing that’s happened in an ESPN Sunday night game. Feels weird to call 2001 “the old days.” But, I guess for those of you in your 20’s and early 30s, that’s the way it seems. I can assure you that ALL veteran sharps remember this game from 2001.
*Seattle jumped out to a 12-0 lead on Cleveland
*Seattle led by a dozen again at 14-2
*Seattle led 14-9 heading to the bottom of the ninth
*Seattle led 14-9 with TWO OUTS in the bottom of the ninth!
*Cleveland forced extra innings with a five-run rally
*Cleveland won in extra innings.
And, this wasn’t some generic or bad Seattle team blowing a lead. That was the year Seattle won 116 games! One of the greatest regular season teams ever blew a 12-run early lead, and a five-run lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
The 2018 Cubs are on the short list of potential World Champions. Chicago rallying from 3-0 down doesn’t come close to comparing to what happened in 2001. Not…even…close.
I know…the world begins the day you start betting. My world began a long time ago in this field. Back when “bad beats” weren’t a nightly TV vignette on cable.
Well…my main goal with these web articles is to teach you how to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp. What happened Sunday night provides some great examples.
*Sharps have respect for history.
*Sharps understand that luck is part of the game
*Sharps minimize the impact of bad luck with their betting strategies
Sure, sharps get mad when they lose too. But, the best don’t fall to the ground like they’ve been shot whenever they lose in the final minutes. They also don’t run around the sports book high fiving everyone when they win. Tomorrow’s another day.
If you still haven’t recovered from your loss on Washington by the time you read this. I’m fairly confident that you’ve been betting too many favorites…betting too many parlays…and betting with the idea that you’re going to make a fortune at this because you’re so smart. You think the world is ROBBING you whenever you suffer a bad bet.
Stop thinking like a square. Handicap with an eye on value, not with the “shortcut” of just assuming all the favorites are going to win their games that day. Stop betting parlays until you learn the math of how they really work. You think you’re making favorites cheaper by parlaying. The fact that all of your bets have to sweep is actually making favorites more expensive. And, stop acting like your betting is some sort of TV drama or movie where you’re the star. Most sharps I know are quiet and reclusive.
As your “friend in Las Vegas,” I try to find the top plays on the board every day. That means a disciplined approach that isn’t trying to hit a home run on every single pitch. We take edges where they’re offered with the hopes that our bankroll grows throughout a season. If you’re ready for THAT, you can purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages that offer the best value.
I’ll see you again at the end of the week. Betting excitement continues to build as we get closer to the college and pro football regular seasons. Even golf is creating a buzz. You should have seen how crowded sports books were this past Sunday when Tiger Woods was in contention at the PGA. Sports betting is only going to get BIGGER and BETTER as more states make it legal. Thinking like a sharp and betting like a sharp is going to be more important than ever. Thanks for reading.