Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, August 3, 2018 at 4:00 PM
There was immediate reaction at sports books earlier this week when it was announced that Ohio State head football coach Urban Meyer was placed on administrative leave. Futures prices were taken down at some spots. “Game of the Year” betting was halted in matchups involving the Buckeyes.
Part of the reason for that is that sports books hate uncertainty. Would Meyer be suspended for a game, or a month? Would he be fired before the season started? Maybe he’d just get a slap on the wrist and not miss any games. As I write this, we still don’t know.
No sports book wants to be the place that gets burned by a bettor who gets early word before anything goes public.
That brings us to the question, how much is Urban Meyer worth to the Buckeyes in betting terms? If he’s not on the sideline, do they lose a couple of points in their Power Rating? Or, is he one of those coaches who rests on the shoulders of great assistants who are doing all the heavy lifting.
I won’t tell you I have the answers. But, I’ll point out that Florida sure fell off the map after he left.
2005-2010: Florida went 65-15 under Meyer, including three 13-1 seasons
2011-since: 52-36, including seasons of 4-7 and 4-8
Hey, that’s still a winning record. But, Florida used to be in the annual National Championship discussions. Now, they’re in the annual “When are they going to get things turned around” discussions.
Basically a 10-win team on average turned into a 7-win or 8-win team on average. That’s a very big difference in Power Ratings because there are so many auto-wins on a college schedule. Florida dropped about 40 spots on the major college football ladder. That’s more than 1-2 points.
Of course, Meyer did have some good assistants at Florida. Not going to pretend he’s everything no matter where he’s coaching.
But, you can see why oddsmakers were concerned about Meyer possibly getting fired before the 2018 season starts. If Ohio State is about to go from “Final Four” caliber to more of a 9-3 type team because nobody’s ready to step in and truly lead…then
*Sharps would bet UNDER the Regular Season Win total
*Sharps would FADE the Buckeyes in advance game point spreads
*Sharps would hit other conference contenders to win the Big 10
*Sharps would hit other national powers to win the national championship
Ohio State was priced to perfection already. No drama. No injuries. No surprises on the schedule. Any news is bad news as far as their win potential is concerned. If Meyer is cleared and allowed to coach…no harm-no foul…the odds go back up on the board as they were.
My headline asked the question “How Much is Urban Meyer worth.” Let’s say it’s IMPOSSIBLE to answer that exactly. We know he’s worth SOMETHING. Sharps will bet any “something” that provides an edge. The media often gives too much credit to both sides of the counter when it comes to these questions. You can’t really know to the nth degree how much something is worth. Sharps know how to put uncertainties in their favor because oddsmakers must price to perfection against public preferences.
Ohio State was priced assuming NO distractions. Now there’s a distraction that can only hurt. No place to go but down. Sharps will find away to invest in “down” one way or another.
How should YOU bet once Meyer’s status for the season IS determined? Start thinking right now about which teams benefit most from his firing. Who on the schedule is more likely to grab a win that will help them against their Regular Season Win total? Which of the other Big 10 contenders benefits more in the league race? Is somebody like Georgia or Oklahoma now more likely to earn a return trip to the Final Four?
I wouldn’t bet in advance of any news. You shouldn’t assume he’s going to be fired. This is the Big 10 after all! Have a plan in place for when news is announced. That’s what the sharps are doing. I want you to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp.
I hadn’t expected any college football preseason betting talk to be about a topic like this. Sign of the times I guess. Smart bettors change with the times. They also seek out assistance to maximize their coverage.
You can purchase daily BEST BETS from your friend in Las Vegas right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term or combination packages that offer the best value. I try to find you something good every day, whether it’s on the football or baseball schedule.
I’ll see you again next week. We’ll have the first full week of NFL Preseason action to talk about. A lot of buzz in Las Vegas sports books as the Chicago/Baltimore game ended this past Thursday night. A lot of Chicago fans live in Las Vegas (especially in the local media). But, many bettors were playing the trend of John Harbaugh’s exhibition history with the Ravens. Plus, the Under was in doubt until the late two-point conversion failed. Amazing how much angst can fill the spectator section of a sports book in a preseason pro football game.
Thanks for reading. See you again on Monday.