Submitted by Jim Hurley on Wednesday, July 11, 2018 at 1:00 PM
Handicapping baseball gets more and more complicated every season. The game is changing so much on the fly that old school approaches can turn irrelevant very quickly. Did you used to focus on starting pitchers who would reliably go seven or eight innings? Few do that any more! Did you like offenses who tried to string together hits rather than patiently waiting for a dinger? Same thing.
*Starting pitchers only go 5-6 innings
*Middle relievers are now CRUCIAL instead of irrelevant
*Defensive shifts are curtailing some hitting stats
*We're back to a "dead ball" era relative to the past 1.5 seasons
*Some teams are actively trying to lose while building for the future
*A few powers are pacing themselves to be fresh for the playoffs
It's like you're trying to handicap the NBA...and soccer...and chess all at once...in a sport that only kinda/sorta resembles the game you grew up with.
The unique TEAM HANDICAPPING approach of JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK helps us stay ahead of the curve as a sport evolves. Our state-of-the-art SIMULATION SOFTWARE is easy to tweak due to changes in strategy. Some quants who were killing it a few years ago have had to junk their systems. Ours is better than ever! For the quants who are keeping up...our WISE GUY CONNECTIONS in Las Vegas and offshore keep us abreast of their daily approaches.
For you do-it-yourself handicappers, this may be your most challenging season yet. And, if you're just a casual bettor focusing on favorites...what you lost during the slumps of teams like Cleveland, Washington, or the Los Angeles Dodgers wasn't made up for by winning performances elsewhere.
While we encourage you to sign up for service as the best shot to find BIG, JUICY, WINNERS; we do have these analytical suggestions this week for you do-it-yourselfers regarding starting pitchers.
*Study Innings-pitched-per-start, and try to find pitchers who can reliably throw six innings while allowing two runs or less. You probably know that "quality starts" are six innings and three runs. That's an unimpressive ERA of 4.50, which isn't good enough in this year's conditions. Look at the combination of endurance and run prevention. A guy who only throws five innings probably isn't going to win money for you unless his team has an extremely deep bullpen.
*Respect strikeout pitchers, but don't limit yourself to them. The elites tend to be overpriced because the Wise Guys POUND them along with the public. Teams are now emphasizing "game managers" who can avoid allowing home runs while allowing the ball to be put into play. Ground ball pitchers are fine with a shift backing them up. Fly ball pitchers aren't getting drilled as often now that the "juiced" ball (more a change in core and stitching) is gone. And, frankly, it's not that hard to get hitters out when they're all swinging for the fences anyway.
*Spend more time than you currently do focusing on ballpark influences. Too many of you ignore these, when you SHOULD be cleaning up on pitchers who are well-suited to shine in their home ballparks. Stay on top of ESPN's ballpark factor chart (use a google search, then review a few times a week). Study home/road splits for regular rotation starters. This is a potential gold mine, so don't be too lazy to lift a shovel. Here's a hint, the "game manager" type pitchers are getting solid results this season in the best pitchers' parks.
*Don't be impressed by starters who shut down the worst teams in the league. We've talked about this in other sports in the past. It's becoming vital to handicap pitchers in baseball based on how they perform vs. different levels of competition. Separate MLB teams into "classes," and calculate ERA and WHIP vs. those classes. A guy may look like a "hot" pitcher who just happened to beat up on Kansas City, Baltimore, and the Chicago White Sox in recent outings. He's not "hot," he's just taking candy from tanking babies. Respect performances vs. quality, fade pitchers who struggle even during the softest parts of their schedule.
Out-of-date approaches just aren't going to work right now in baseball. But, being SMART always works in your battle against oddsmakers! Don't give up on baseball if you've been struggling. Consider this DAY ONE of a new campaign to build a nice bankroll in advance of the football season.
If you'd like some help, JIM HURLEY has always been ahead of the pack when it comes to baseball betting. You can purchase daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about long term or combination packages, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-800-323-4453.
Don't forget to check on early-bird football. The NFL Preseason is less than a month away! We have great combination packages that get you the rest of baseball and all of football at a very reasonable price. If you're serious about making money as a sports investor, you should have your football ducks in a row by the end of next week's All-Star Break.
Because football is just around the corner, we'll start mixing some gridiron tips into these weekly NOTEBOOK entries soon. Whatever the sport...whatever the month...you're going to GET THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK!