Submitted by Kelso Sturgeon on Friday, June 29, 2018 at 1:00 PM
Usually your homework assignment isn’t something as basic as sitting and watching some baseball. But, I want you to do that this weekend with the Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees series because those teams are both going to be very important through the second half of the regular season and deep into the playoffs.
*Obviously, these teams will meet again several more times this season. You might pick up something this weekend that helps you bet winners in later meetings. Be on particular lookout for key pitchers who can’t quite figure out how to disrupt the most dangerous hitting threats on the other side.
*They might meet again in the playoffs, though one will definitely have to survive a Wildcard game, probably against Seattle the way things are shaping up. The American League is so well-defined right now that the playoffs are simple to visualize. This weekend’s series will definitely help you plot out postseason betting strategies.
*Either could win the AL and play in the World Series. Houston will have something to say about that. Cleveland might as well if they can get things together before October. (Seattle probably won’t, but you never know). If I were you, I’d be paying close attention whenever Boston, New York, Houston, and Cleveland are playing head-to-head against each other…or against any NL power (the Yankees will face Atlanta beginning Monday). I expect you to be OVER-prepared for the playoffs this October. At least in the AL. Study how championship threats perform against other championship threats.
*Both teams are so good that oddsmakers are having trouble posting lines high enough. You’ll often see teams with good straight up records barely showing a profit because their day-to-day money lines are so high. Not the case with either of these guys. Boston is plus 13.5 units entering this series, while the Yankees are plus about 9.5 units. Personally, I think one of these teams might make a run at plus 20 units for the season, while the other is going to cool off a bit soon after the All-Star Break. Profits await any analyst who can recognize when that divergence starts to happen.
What keys should you be looking for? It’s not like there are a lot of secrets about these high-profile media-heavy teams. Betting lines will be based on what is publicly known. It’s your job to uncover the secrets that are still hiding.
*Look at how these teams handle pressure. It’s one thing to crush lesser teams like bugs. It’s another to maintain composure when the bug is trying to crush you back.
*Look at how hitters deal with relief pitchers. One of the dangers of the way the Yankees structure their bullpen to own the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings is that a postseason opponent will get a read by the middle of the series. Aroldis Chapman is less scary (and less fresh) under repeated playoff shots. These teams have seen each other enough this year that evidence of that dynamic might already start happening this weekend. Let’s hope for close games that will help us evaluate key relievers.
*Evaluate the bench and role players. The media tends to focus on a few marquee names. I don’t even have to list them for these teams because you already know them. But, it’s often lesser names who rise to the occasion in clutch baseball. Use this weekend to better familiarize yourself with guys like that who could determine who wins and loses bets down the stretch and in October.
For pure entertainment purposes, it’s kind of annoying that things are so locked in for the AL playoff picture right now. And, if you’ve been watching baseball for years (or decades), you’re thinking “not the Red Sox and Yankees AGAIN.” Get over that. Use this extra time to your advantage. Hey, if you see an edge this weekend, bet it. But, your homework is to study and evaluate so you can make multiple smart bets in games involving these teams for the next few months.
I might have a release for my clients in this series. You have to be a client to find out! KELSO STURGEON’S BEST BETS can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Ask about packages that take you through the All-Star Break (which will be here soon) or the full baseball season. Feel free to call with your questions about 2018 football. July is about to arrive, which means the NFL exhibition season is just around the corner.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping greatly appreciates your devotion to my College of Sports Betting and Handicapping. You may have heard already that Las Vegas sports books had a HUGE month of May. I take that as a personal affront because informed bettors are winning. That means books are taking way too much advantage of uninformed money. Spread the word. Teach your friends how to win, by letting them know about our coursework.
As sports betting becomes legal in more states, media coverage will only intensify. Make sure some of that “dumb money” from fans who are in over their heads makes it into your pocket. Do your homework, and you’ll become the smart money.
See you Monday.