Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Monday, June 18, 2018 at 1:00 PM
Word was making the rounds in sports books this past weekend that the Yankees had played a bunch of Unders in a row. Many gamblers couldn’t believe it…because the team has a great offense, and many of its starting pitchers ae just kind of there rather than being all-star material (Severino is all-star material, the others inconsistent). Of course, we’ve all seen games where home runs fly out of Yankee Stadium too…and the Yanks were at home against Tampa Bay.
Thursday: New York Yankees 4, Tampa Bay 3
Friday: New York Yankees 5, Tampa Bay 0
Saturday: New York Yankees 4, Tampa Bay 1
Sunday: Tampa Bay 3, New York Yankees 1
Sunday’s market total was all the way up at 9.5 because everyone was playing “the due theory” while assuming some guy named “Wilmer Font” would get crushed. The Yankees were so overdue to play an Over that Sunday’s game just HAD to be high scoring.
It wasn’t. And, now the Yankees have played 12 Unders in a row entering the new week.
A lot of squares (recreational gamblers) lost that one. Sharps don’t bet the due theory…and don’t bet into lines that have been inflated for whatever reason. Some squares lost BIG because they doubled up off a Saturday loss on the Over, or had to dig even deeper into their pockets to try to cover “due theory” losses from both Friday and Saturday.
You see, that’s the problem with the due theory. Sure, eventually the Yankees will play an Over. But asking for a streak to end can cause you to go broke before the buster finally hits.
Let’s say you bet 1 unit on Over in the Yankees game Friday because they had played nine Unders in a row and you were sure the streak would end. You lost that, and decided to double up Saturday so you can still show a profit when it ended. You bet 2 units Saturday, and lost again. Now you’re down 3 units. You had to bet 4 units Sunday to get your head back above water. Except the tide kept pulling you under and now you’re down 7 units.
That means you’d have to bet 8 units the next time out, risking 15 units to make ONE! You’re laying -1500 on the money line on a coin flip. Horrible situation to be in.
Since the concept of gambling began, people have been combining these two classic errors
*Assuming something was “due” to happen
*Doubling up to catch up
The latter is called a “Martingale” system and has been breaking hearts for centuries. Yet, some guy will surely come up to me this week and tell me he has a great “new” idea for a betting system. What he’ll lay out for me is just a variation of “double up to catch up.” It might be for blackjack, or roulette, or craps, or sports betting. But, it’s the same BAD approach that keeps getting re-invented day by day amongst people who dream of making a fortune gambling.
Look. That approach WILL temporarily work for stretches up until the inevitable run of bad luck breaks you. The longer you try it, the more certain the bad run will happen. That’s the nature of probability. The bad run is GUARANTEED to happen eventually. Sports books and casinos have very deep pockets, which prevents them from reaching a breaking point. You do not. Eventually you won’t be able to cover what it takes to get back what you lost. Busto.
You’re probably thinking “what if I turn it around and bet the streak to continue?” While that is a “better” way to approach a streak. That’s the second-most common “new system” I hear…riding streaks.
You still run into problems because lines may have over-adjusted because of recent form. A football team that keeps winning big will see its point spreads skyrocket to wear value no longer exists. What’s more common is that you keep hopping around to a bunch of little mini-streaks of three or four games that end as soon as you get there.
I’m going to explain this as simply as I can. Sharps focus on the value offered in any particular proposition. If a baseball money line is -150…and it should be -150 based on their calculations, they pass the game. They don’t worry about whether the favorite is “hot” on one end, or “due” on the other. They look at the number. Sharps bet prices, not teams. If their grading on that game is -170, then they lay -150 with the favorite. If their grading is only -130, they bet the dog at +140 on a dime line…or anything above the 130.
If you want to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp, focus on trying to find value offered by the number (whether it’s the opening line, the midday line, or the number five minutes before start). Don’t try to turn sports betting into roulette. Nobody beats roulette.
I’m happy to let you know the games each day that I think offer the most betting value. You can purchase daily BEST BETS from your friend in Las Vegas right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term packages that offer the best value. Check on early-bird rates for football when you call.
I hope you had a great holiday weekend. I’ll see you again on Friday.