Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, June 8, 2018 at 4:00 PM
We haven’t had a chance to talk too much about baseball yet in these articles. The one thing that jumps out to me so far in the 2018 season is how much everyone in Las Vegas is complaining! Major League baseball really has changed dramatically these past couple of seasons. As a result:
*Bettors are mad starting pitchers are getting pulled so early
*Bettors are mad most hitters are just swinging for the fences
*Bettors are mad the games are so boring to watch
If you sit in a sports book, you’ll hear public bettors complaining about this stuff around the clock (day games start in the morning out here). And, of course, if they’re losing, they’ll blame THOSE factors for their losses. The manager was an idiot for taking out the starting pitcher after five innings or 85 pitches. The hitters are stupid for not trying to get on base and move each other around rather than just trying for homers. Why am I sitting for a few hours in a sports book watching this crap?!
It’s gotten to where baseball is boring to watch even if you’re winning.
Sharps are making adjustments as the sport evolves before our eyes. From what they’ve told me, these have become the points of emphasis:
*For starting pitchers, home run prevention. Sharps fade home run prone pitchers in the current environment (though there are fewer disaster stories this season because they stopped using the “juiced” balls). Sharps back pitchers who get fly ball outs, particularly in spacious parks or at sites where there isn’t much carry. Strikeout totals used to be the #1 tool when analyzing starting pitchers. Now it’s about avoiding the long ball. Getting a lot of strikeouts just uses up the pitch counts for good pitchers.
*For bullpens, it’s the quality of arms that are going to pitch in the middle of the game. If the starter is coming out after five or six innings, your bet will likely come down to whether or not your team can get outs before the set-up man and closer come in the game. The most aggressively bet teams are those whose starting pitchers and middle relievers can dominate until the eighth inning. Sharps used to pay little attention to middle relievers because they’d only come in when a game was getting out of reach anyway. Now, they’re a big deal.
*For offenses, it’s teams with balance who can find a way to get runs on the board every day. It’s been such a low scoring season that nobody’s really capable of doing that all the time. But, some offenses are more reliable than others…and sharps prefer to invest in reliable teams. Sharps will heavily fade undisciplined offenses who only swing for the fences in low scoring environments, or on get away days when umpires have a wider strike zone.
*On totals, a lot more focus on Unders this season, after last year was so high scoring. Old school guys that prefer Unders were miserable last year, when so many games were slugfests. They’re making that money back this season with all the pitchers duels. Squares (the public) hate low scoring games because they want to root for runs. Sharps, particularly my generation, are smiling at the sports books.
*On “first five inning” props, I’m not sensing much enthusiasm this season. The most logical pitchers to bet on are so expensive that there’s no value. Under bettors prefer attacking the full game number with good starters and bullpens rather than increasingly lower five-inning counts. One bad half inning for a pitcher can take a five-inning prop Over while keeping the full game Under still in play. Maybe it’s this…the new “efficiency” for sharps ahead of the curve is exploiting differences in middle relief…and those influence full game options much more than five-inning options.
*On “first inning” Yes/No props on whether or not there will be a run, this is growing in popularity with sharps. They focus on the home run tendencies of the starting pitchers and the home run hitting capabilities of the top of each lineup. You can find some good “Yes” spots at underdog prices if you’re studying the right information.
I’ll keep talking with my sharp connections for more insights through the season. And, I’ll monitor the markets for you as well. You can purchase daily BEST BETS from your friend in Las Vegas right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term packages that offer the best value.
You probably heard that Las Vegas sports books dodged a bullet when the Vegas Golden Knights didn’t win the Stanley Cup Finals. There was seven-figure liability if VGK did go the distance because so many fans got in early when the futures prices were high. We’ll have to see what the final numbers were when Nevada Gaming issues its report next month. Shops certainly won money when the Washington Capitals took the series. People kept betting the Knights locally figuring they’d bounce back at some point and get a win. Sports book operators breathed a huge sigh of relief when the game clock struck zero on hockey’s Cinderella story. They pocket a nice win, rather than having to absorb a huge loss that would take months to recoup.
Thanks for reading. Talk to you again Monday.