Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Monday, June 4, 2018 at 1:00 PM
Though the mainstream media is already acting like Golden State sweeping Cleveland is very likely, and another championship for the Warriors is almost 100% certain…sharps (professional wagerers) are still looking for ways to bet the Cavs.
Why is that?
Because betting value on point spreads comes from how many points you’re getting, not whether you can win straight up. Cleveland will be getting about 5 points (maybe more by tip off) in Wednesday’s Game Three…and possibly six in Friday’s fourth game.
And, it’s obviously possible for Cleveland to win a game at home straight up to extend the series. Five-point underdogs do that all the time. Plus, Golden State has these blemishes on its resume even when advancing in earlier rounds.
Golden State (-5.5) lost at San Antonio 103-90 (missed by 18.5 points)
Golden State (-4.5) lost at New Orleans 119-100 (missed by 23.5 points)
Golden State (+1.5) lost at Houston 127-105 (missed by 20.5 points)
Golden State (-1) lost at Houston 98-94 (missed by 5 points)
Golden State can look awful when it comes in too overconfident. The Warriors don’t play defense. The Warriors throw too many casual passes that are intercepted. And, trying to play catch up can fail when you HAVE to make three pointers.
Cleveland is just as good as the San Antonio and New Orleans teams that scored double digit wins. Cleveland is capable of winning either game.
Early sharp money HAS been coming in on the Cavs for Game Three at any like of +5 or higher. I’m currently seeing Golden State -4.5 as I write this Monday morning Las Vegas time. I do think the public will find the Warriors appealing at that price…and would dive in headfirst if -4 ever comes into play. I expect a tug-of-war between Golden State -4.5 and Cleveland +5…with the Wise Guys expecting the dog to win at least one game in Ohio.
My sources tell me this is the plan of attack for many sharps, depending, of course, on line value.
*Take Cleveland at +5 or better in Game Three
*If Cleveland loses, back them again at (+) points in Game Four
*If Cleveland wins outright, take Golden State (-) in the bounce back spot
Many of the “situational” guys love Golden State after a loss. Not surprising given these recent results right after an outright failure.
Golden State (-11) beat San Antonio 99-91 (non-cover)
Golden State (-6) won at New Orleans 118-92
Golden State (-8) beat Houston 126-85
Golden State (-12) beat Houston 115-86
Obviously, a bounce back off a Game Three loss would be in Cleveland, creating a lower point threshold to top.
What about totals? We’ve had two Overs so far…though the first Over was a crime given how regulation ended. It landed on 214 at the 48-minute mark, before clearing the market number in overtime. Game Two flew Over because neither team was particularly committed to defense. Quants bet Under 218 for Game Three. I’m now seeing 217.5 or 217. But, that’s as far as it’s come. We haven’t seen a huge move toward the Under in a game that should see better defense from Cleveland because it might see worse defense from Golden State.
Sharps are more likely to bet Under in tandem with Golden State in a bounce back (if there is one). The Warriors really intensify their defense after a loss.
If this series does make it to a Game Five, that would be Monday June 11. I’d have time to update sharp betting in that one in my usual Monday report. I do believe that sharps would bet Cleveland at plus 11.5 or higher at Oracle given how they bet the first two games. Let’s see how this week goes.
With so little basketball left on the schedule, it’s time to focus my daily service on Major League Baseball. I have a big week planned. You can purchase daily BEST BETS from your friend in Las Vegas right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term packages that offer the best value.
Thanks for reading. We’ll talk more about how sharps have been betting baseball in the coming days. I can tell you all of the following in terms of recent weeks…
*Sharps have been betting MLB Unders because home runs and scoring are down this season. Looks like they switched away from the balls that caused so much controversy last season. Pitchers sure are happy. As are Under bettors.
*Sharps have been betting the starting pitchers best suited to baseballs that don’t carry as far. That means fly ball pitchers throwing in spacious ballparks.
*Sharps pay much more attention to bullpens these days than they used to in the past. I should say…bullpen depth. Sharps always weighted closers (betting against teams with inconsistent closers). Now, sharps are closely monitoring everything from the sixth inning on. Old school guys HATE this because they started handicapping in the days when starters went 7 innings on average, and threw complete games when things were going well. New day, new approaches have to be created.
*Sharps aren’t fading the projected powers as much as they were earlier in the season. The big payroll teams are starting to find their form. You may have read that big favorites had a good stretch recently. Sharps rarely lay high prices with favorites. For now, they’ve backed off of fading them.
More on baseball as the summer progresses. See you again Friday.