Submitted by Richie B. Oddsmakers Consensus on Monday, May 14, 2018 at 4:00 PM
Las Vegas woke up to news that rocked its world Monday. Remember that a 10 a.m. announcement on the East Coast from the Supreme Court is a 7 a.m. announcement out here. Our world just got a whole lot more complicated. If you LIVE in Nevada, you already had it pretty good. Now, Las Vegas sports books must ponder the possibilities of:
*Offering phone our app accounts nationally
*Partnering with companies in other states to run their sports books
*Advertising nationally during live sports events to promote their enterprises
Running a sports book was already complicated enough. Then, who knows what will happen if Congress enacts a law with federal guidelines that all 50 states have to follow? If your life just got simpler, I’m happy for you. My life just got a lot more complicated.
What about sharps? How will professional bettors try to make the most of these new opportunities?
*As always, the first point of emphasis is value. They will try to find situations they can exploit. Maybe some states will offer special propositions that are easy to beat if you know what they’re doing. Any states that charge 12/10 or 13/10 instead of 11/10 as the standard vigorish will mostly be avoided (except for bad props). It will be similar to what you saw with professional blackjack players when riverboat and Indian casinos started popping up all over the national map many years ago. Guys would find good games and beat them. Even if they were in the black book in Nevada, logistically barred from playing, they could sit at these new tables and make some money. Sharps always find a way to make money.
*Sharps are well positioned in terms of offshore access. They know what they have to do to make that work. This won’t change any of that. If anything, offshore options may become friendlier because they have to compete with newly created legal sports books in hotbeds across the East Coast and Midwest. Sharps will look to exploit any perks the offshore sites create.
*Syndicates will likely expand, or combine to pool their resources. If the best line on a game is available at an Atlantic City casino, or a new spot in Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, or wherever…somebody will have access to make a limit sized bet on that number. This is why you won’t see a wide variety of game lines across the country. Most stores will get their numbers from the same original sources, and then sharps will pound any outliers into place.
If you’re just a casual bettor who plays for fun, will you be able to take advantage of the Supreme Court’s overturn of the betting ban? The good news is that you can bet LEGALLY! If that was a concern for you, it’s not any more. But, don’t believe it’s going to be easy picking out there because new sports books won’t know what they’re doing. Many will just be corporate arms of existing entities. The rest will copy them! And, there’s a chance that taxes or “integrity” fees will create a higher vigorish. It’s hard enough to beat the number at 11/10. Don’t even try at -115 or -120. New sports books in new stats are still looking to attract squares. Don’t be a square.
I’ll say it this way. If you’re a casual bettor, your life probably just became more fun. You’ll be able to bet in much more enjoyable environments, in a world that accepts that this is okay. You aren’t going to be a winner unless you do the work it takes to find real edges.
I’ll keep you posted on these pages through the summer as I learn more about the Las Vegas angle to this huge story. The guys I’ve talked to behind the counter (and I know all the big names behind all the counters) are in wait-and-see mode. This is just the first of many shoes to drop. Corporations who were already preparing with their casinos in Atlantic City are racing full steam ahead to get sports books at those sites up and running quickly. It was New Jersey that won the case…so New Jersey is where everything’s going to happen right out of the gate.
As I write this, Nevada is still in shock. They weren’t going to believe it until they saw it. They just saw it when they woke up Monday morning. It’s about to get even busier for all of us.
Of course, finding smart plays for clients is already part of my daily routine. You can purchase daily BEST BETS from your friend in Las Vegas right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure to ask about long term packages that offer the best value. Those are available for the NBA, or for Major League Baseball.
Thanks for reading. I’ll see you again on Friday to talk about how sharps have been adjusting their thinking (if at all) in the NBA conference championship matchups featuring Boston vs. Cleveland and Golden State vs. Houston. Thanks to all of you who joined me for yesterday’s winner on the Celtics.