Submitted by Jim Hurley on Monday, February 5, 2018 at 2:00 PM
Thanks to everyone who was with us during JIM HURLEY’S incredible run through the NFL Playoffs. NETWORK capped off its historic stretch with a big play winner on Philadelphia (+) outright over New England in the Super Bowl. Though we did take a smaller unit loss on the Under. A profitable day to close out the biggest postseason money-making performance the industry had ever seen.
Why Philadelphia? Several reasons.
*New England doesn’t win blowouts on neutral fields against good teams! They’ve never won a Super Bowl by more points than this past Sunday’s spread in regulation with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. That’s a dynasty because of how often they GET to the Super Bowl. It wasn’t a surprise at all that they fell behind in the first half and had to chase. They’re slow starters who are getting too old to pull that off vs. hot teams. The public thinks so much about all the regular season and home playoff blowouts, but they always forget the Pats don’t win big in Super Bowls.
*Nick Foles was for real in good weather. His lack of arm strength (and experience) in frigid temperatures will continue to be a problem in bad weather. Put him in a spread-out offense in great conditions, and the heady young man is going to move the chains and get his team to the end zone. The rout of Minnesota wasn’t a fluke. And, the New England defense isn’t one that forces turnovers from good offenses. They’ll exploit the mistakes of bad teams…but they weren’t facing one with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.
*The Las Vegas pointspread was based on the illusion that there’s a huge difference between Carson Wentz and Nick Foles in this particular offense. Remember that the Eagles were Power Rated as dead even with the Pats before the Wentz injury. For the line to be around 4.5, there had to have been a market assessment that Foles was 4.5 points worse than Wentz. In bad weather, we’d buy that. In good conditions, they’re both going to have success. Vegas was giving us free points we were happy to take.
*Philadelphia had channeled an “us against the world” mentality because they were underdogs every single time they took the field in the postseason. We’re not going to suggest New England was flat. New England is always workmanlike. Maybe that’s what hurts them against Super Bowl expectations. Opponents come in breathing fire…and that fire negates whatever advantages the Pats might have had. (Ask Eli Manning and several defensive stars on the NY Giants team that beat them twice). With the Patriots returning off a dramatic win a year ago, the motivational edge clearly favored the underdog Eagles.
Sure, a sweep would have been nice. But, our dog-heavy approach this postseason had already swept so many days! We’ll take 80%-plus all the way to the bank.
Now it’s time to focus on basketball. We’ve already studied some keys for you here in the HANDICAPPING NOTEBOOK in recent days. From now through March Madness, expect intense college coverage with some NBA thrown in for fun. After this past weekend’s results, here’s an additional key we wanted to bring to your attention.
THREE-POINT SHOOTING IS FICKLE!
Often a team that appears to be playing “great” is just temporarily shooting over its head on three-point tries. And, whenever a big-name program has a bad result or a mini-slump, it can often be tied to poor three-point shooting. Casual bettors that don’t know this often chase the wrong flow with dumb bets. They jump on “hot” teams who are about to cool off. They fade “cold” teams who are about to regress toward their shooting mean. YOU need to be aware of this phenomenon, and focus more on what really defines quality over the long haul.
*Focus on the ability to get high percentage two-point shots
*Respect teams who attack the basket to earn bonus points at the free throw line
*Never forget that DEFENSE AND REBOUNDING WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS!
Those have been fundamentals we’ve emphasized when since our web coverage began (back when the web began!). They matter now as much as ever. It’s just that the whims of three-point math can paint temporary illusions that smart bettors have to see through. You regulars may remember a stat we invented called “Phantom Score.” It’s simply two-point scoring plus rebounding. Calculate that in every box score you read. It’s often very close to the actual score. When it isn’t, trust “Phantom Score” over the regular score when making future predictions.
More on college hoops when we return later this week. If you haven’t been following the baskets closely on your own…but NOW you’re ready to get started…you can purchase our BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155 during normal business hours. Some blockbuster matchups coming up in the next few days…and every dollar you earn this month will double and triple by the time a college champion is crowned on the first Monday night in April.
We proved it again in the NFL…and you’ll be hearing it throughout tournament time in the colleges. When championships are on the line, YOU NEED WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY!