Submitted by Winning Edge on Friday, December 29, 2017 at 1:00 PM
If you’ve been paying attention to the betting markets, you know that the “smart” money has been taking Georgia over Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl, that also serves as the first half of the Final Four doubleheader New Year’s Day. Oklahoma opened as a favorite, but is now an underdog. Oklahoma’s futures prices are also moving in the wrong direction.
What’s going on? Many theories are being discussed out here in the sports betting capital of the world.
*Baker Mayfield may have won the Heisman Trophy, but he’s not ready to shine against the great defenses he’ll be facing in January (if OU beats Georgia, another great defense awaits in the championship game from either Alabama or Clemson).
*Oklahoma’s defense is the softest of the four remaining contenders. If “defense wins championships,” you can’t possibly bet on the Sooners.
*The SEC is still seen as the conference of champions, so both Georgia and Alabama have been getting the bulk of money thus far. Lines have risen in the SEC’s direction in both games.
While its certainly true that any of those issues could derail Oklahoma. THE KING OF UPSETS is here to remind you that there are important factors that have put Oklahoma in position to sweep these next two games. Be aware…I’m not telling you here to bet Oklahoma. I could well be on Georgia come Monday with my ROOT TRUST investments because of a matchup advantage I won’t discuss publicly. I just want you to be aware that THE KING OF UPSETS recognizes classic signs that could help Oklahoma SHOCK THE NATION in coming days.
*First, an “us against the world” mentality has definitely developed. The team is offended that they’re now a longshot after having such a great season. And, every NFL draft expert you talk to is ignoring Baker Mayfield to hype other prospects. Nobody will have a bigger chip on their shoulder in the Final Four than Oklahoma.
*Second, this team can score points! How often have I told you that the key to picking upsets is to find offenses who can score enough to win. Because of Mayfield, this is the most potent offense in the Final Four. I could understand people backing Georgia as a “defensive dog.” But, Georgia isn’t a dog any more. Oklahoma can build a big lead that takes Georgia out of its comfort zone the way Auburn did in their regular season matchup. Oklahoma can rally from behind if they suffer some early bad breaks.
*Finally, this team won’t be intimidated. Oklahoma has already travelled to Ohio State and won outright as a bigger dog than this in Columbus. Ohio State would likely be a slight neutral field favorite over Georgia according to insiders I’ve talked to. Oklahoma won the tough Big 12. You watched runners-up TCU and Oklahoma State win their bowl games Thursday. Oklahoma beat Texas…and Texas more than doubled Missouri on the scoreboard in the Texas Bowl. Oklahoma may lose clean to Georgia. It won’t be because they were intimidated, or didn’t believe in themselves.
Hey, from all that, it sounds like Oklahoma is a sure thing! There are no sure things. The main reason to be wary of Oklahoma is that its rush defense might have trouble getting Georgia off the field. A super-fired up Baker Mayfield doesn’t help you if he’s on the bench for 10-15 minutes at a time, frustrated that his defense can get a stop.
And, it could certainly be an issue that a first-year head coach like Lincoln Riley just isn’t ready to win a game this big. Experience matters, and he lacks experience. Poise and patience matter, and he may not yet possess those traits in the second half on such a big stage. Riley may be the next Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney. Would you have backed those guys in a Final Four in their first season as head coaches?
I have a lot to think about before making a stand on New Year’s Day. There’s work to be done all weekend! Five bowl games Friday, four more on Saturday, a full slate of NFL on Sunday, and then the five traditional bowls Monday on New Year’s Day. Let the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Las Vegas “Walk of Fame” take you to the PINNACLE of big-game handicapping!
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