Submitted by Richie B. Oddsmakers Consensus on Thursday, December 7, 2017 at 3:46 PM
WINNING THAT ONE MOVE A NIGHT
RICHIE BACCELLIERI HAS THE RIGHT PLAY AT THE RIGHT NUMBER
WITH NEW PREFERRED PLAYS BASKETBALL SERVICE
8-2-1 SINCE OPENED TO THE PUBLIC
From Richie Baccellieri, A Message To A Particular Kind Of Player,
When I was the line-maker at Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas there were two types of basketball bettors who tested the line I made.
By far the largest group of bettors were those who loved action. They would bet multiple games a night and because of that the house had a much better opportunity to balance the line and get close to equal amounts of play on each side of a game...guaranteeing a profit from the juice.
The second type of bettor was always the one that challenged me because they were looking for that one game a night...that iron-clad step in play that I came to call PREFERRED PLAYS by these good handicapping, smart betting high rollers.
Remember, the published line is the approximation of how the public will bet. If I didn't have my "HANDICAPPING VISOR" pulled tight over my eyes, if I didn't know what the RIGHT LINE should be as opposed to what the RIGHT LINE truly was, these SHARP BIG DOLLAR BETTORS would beat the House I worked for.
As you know, Caesar's Palace did not get beat. And here is what I want you to know.
NOW THAT I AM A PUBLIC HANDICAPPER
I FIND THAT ONE GAME AT THE RIGHT NUMBER EACH NIGHT
AND IT IS PART OF MY NEW PREFERRED PLAYS SERVICE
It took me a while before I decided to form this service. But after a handful of serious players who repeatedly called, e-mailed or texted me to let me know they were the type of player who wanted to be ALL IN on that one High Percentage Play...that PREFERRED PLAY OF THE DAY...there was nothing to do but create this service.
Since the PREFERRED PLAYS SERVICE WENT PUBLIC on November 27, here are the releases:
11/27 - FIU (+17) South Carolina - 61-78 Push
11/28 - Louisville (+8.5) Purdue - 57-66 Lose
11/29 - North Carolina St. (+1) Penn State - 85-78 WIN
11/30 - Michigan St. (-6) Notre Dame - 81-63 WIN
12/1 - Purdue (-2.5) Maryland - 80-75 WIN
12/2 - Kansas (-10) Syracuse - 76-60 WIN
12/3 - UCF (+11.5) Alabama - 65-62 WIN
12/4 - Nets (+1.5) Hawks - 110-90 WIN
12/5 - Florida State (+9) Florida - 83-68 WIN
12/6 - Utah (+7.5) Butler - 69-81 Lose
12/7 - South Carolina (-9) Wyoming - 80-64 WIN
You will notice that 4 of the 8 winners were actually dogs that won outright. So the logical question is, what was it about these Preferred matchups which allowed me to KNOW THE RIGHT NUMBER and take advantage for my players?
Let's take a look at teo of them:
SOUTH CAROLINA (-9) over Wyoming 80-64 - I'll let you in on a little secret. The algorithms that the Vegas house now use to create the lines are based on Power Numbers which cannot "quantify" travel factors into the equation. Over the years I learned that Mountain and Pacific time-zone teams which travel east, especially to play an early game are already at a disadvantage that I equate to a few baskets or more. With this in place I then apply the matchup dynamics. Only one team has cored over 70 points against South Carolina this year (a good Temple squad scored 76) and that Gamecock defense figured problematic for a Cowboys squad that was shooting 41.1% overall and 33% from beyond the arc.
FLORIDA STATE (+9) over Florida 83-68 - If you peruse all the lines of ranked teams vs ranked teams early in the season, there is a trend to lean to the ranked teams because the house knows that's where the public will go. You can take my word for it that in these situations, regrades of the basic fundamentals such as style of play, rivalries, history of the matchups and simple player talent, the ranked team is much more often than not, even when the unranked team (in this case Florida State) has shown more than enough to be considered a live opponent. So, in addition to getting the extra points based simply on Vegas' knowledge of how the public bets these games, my handicapping expertise told me that Florida State (still unbeaten) would slow down the preferred up-tempo run and gun preference of the gators and that is exactly what they did. Did I think they would win outright by 15? Of course not, but I made Florida at most a 2 point favorite, the rest was bragging rights.
By now I think you get the point. If you are the type of player who is comfortable going ALL IN ON THAT ONE BEST-OF-BEST PLAY then my...
RICHIE BACCELLIERI PREFERRED PLAY SERVICE IS DESIGNED SPECIFICALY FOR YOU
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