Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, November 17, 2017 at 12:00 PM
The Pittsburgh Steelers solidified their spot atop the AFC seedings race with a big Thursday Night win over the Tennessee Titans. Pittsburgh entered the week tied with New England for the best conference record, but will get the Patriots at home in a few weeks. Let’s see how sharps have been betting the rest of this weekend’s NFL ticket. As always, games are presented in Nevada Rotation order.
Detroit at Chicago: Nothing happening on the team side, as Detroit is still a solid -3 everywhere as a road favorite. Sharps would fade any move off the key number. Tougher to like the Bears now after they played poorly vs. Green Bay last Sunday, a team Detroit dominated the prior Monday. I would expect this line to stay solid through the weekend. The opening total of 44 did come down to 41. Might be some weather issues. But, that’s way too high a total for these two offensive styles…so the quants pounded the Under before even worrying about the weather.
Kansas City at the NY Giants: A tall opener of Kansas City -12.5 has been bet down to -10.5. Some syndicates keep betting the Giants during this recent collapse. They’ve been regretting that approach since cashing vs. Denver. Kansas City peaked in September, but still has the horses to win big if the Giants once again no-show the game. Let’s see what the public does Sunday morning. Sharps like the G-men at +10.5 or better.
Tampa Bay at Miami: An opener of Miami -1.5 is down to pick-em after the Dolphins played so poorly at Carolina this past Monday night. This would have been a bye week for both teams. But, they moved that to Week One because of the hurricane hitting Florida back in September. This will be one of the least bet games of the day because both teams are bad and only one state even cares about it.
Baltimore at Green Bay: We’ve been sitting at either Baltimore -2 or -2.5 all week. Green Bay played well enough last week to earn some respect as a home underdog. So, we’re not going to get to the three here. Sharps will be playing the Packers in two-team teasers at +8 or +8.5 if the line doesn’t drop any further. The public isn’t confident with either offense. So, probably only fans of the two teams will be actively involved. Best expectation is for relatively quiet handle with a lot of teaser interest in the Packers.
LA Rams at Minnesota: Another game that’s been hanging around -2 or -2.5 all week, this time for the home team. That tells you the Rams will be popular in teasers at +8 or +8.5. It also lets you know that sharps think Los Angeles is the better team on a neutral field. This line wasn’t even driven to the key number of three, which is standard home field value. A real indictment of the Vikings that they’re not getting sharp support at those prices on a strong home field. Remember that come playoff time.
Arizona at Houston: Another low interest game. There are so many bad teams that a few are going to run into each other on the schedule every week. The opener of pick-em is up to Houston -1.5, partly influenced by the news that rusty Blaine Gabbert will start for Arizona. A line of +1.5 or +2 would put the Cardinals in the teaser window because that six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7. Sharps may be less likely to invest heavily in a bad team forced to use its third-string quarterback.
Jacksonville at Cleveland: An opener of Jacksonville -9 is down to -7.5 or -8. Oddsmakers were hoping to stay out of the teaser window, but sharps bet the dog hard enough to bring that into play. The Jaguars will be popular at -1.5 or -2 in two-team teasers. Tough to lay more than a TD on the road with Blake Bortles. Some old school Wise Guys like taking ugly dogs at prices this high. That mindset is on both the Giants and the Browns this week.
Washington at New Orleans: It’s going to be a busy week for teaser players! New Orleans opened at -8, and has come down to -7.5. That’s going to put the Saints in play at -1.5 or -2 unless we get down to the key number of seven. But, if THAT happens, the public might hit the red-hot Saints pretty hard. New Orleans is in great form. Washington’s defense has been fading against a tough travel schedule and quality opponents.
Buffalo at the LA Chargers: Turns out the market only sees about one-point difference between Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman. Buffalo made a surprise announcement the other day that Taylor was being benched. A line near LAC -3.5 is now up to -4.5 or -5 depending on the store. An interesting game to handicap because Phillip Rivers will be playing hurt for the Chargers…and he’s not really trustworthy as a favorite. Can you trust Peterman to hang within the five? The might be a game where public and sharp sentiment doesn’t really show itself until Sunday betting.
Cincinnati at Denver: Nothing happening yet with a line of Denver -2.5. Another ugly game. Another game in the teaser window. Brutal schedule spot for the Bengals, who have to play their straight on the road…and this one’s at altitude. Do you want a team like THAT getting +8.5 in teasers? Many sharps will take that shot because Denver has been playing so poorly. The Bengals would get hit at +3 if squares take the line up to the key number. Interesting that the Wise Guys DIDN’T bet Denver below the key number even with that situational advantage over the exhausted traveler.
New England vs. Oakland (in Mexico City): New England has been hit very hard in this game, with the line opening at -5 but rising up to the key number of -7. I’m hearing that -7.5. might come into play…which is very surprising for a neutral field game. That tells you sharps have really soured on Oakland, and don’t see the Raiders defense has having much of a chance to slow down Tom Brady. It might take +7.5 to bring Oakland money into the marketplace. The Over/Under has skied from 50 to 55, which is also an indictment of the Raiders defense. Quants pounded the Over. There might be some weather conditions in play too if situational totals handicappers expect defenses to wear down in Mexico City.
Philadelphia at Dallas: Sharps have really soured on Dallas. Rested Philadelphia (off a bye) opened at -3.5 (above the key number away from home against a divisional rival), and have been bet up to -4.5. The Cowboys did look awful without Ezekiel Elliott in the second half against Atlanta. And, there is some off-the-field turmoil that could be causing a distraction. The market price is suggesting Philadelphia would be -7.5 over Dallas on a neutral field, and around -10 a home. Wow.
Atlanta at Seattle: Could be a great Monday night thriller to close out the week. Sportsbooks have been solid on Seattle -3 all week. Sharps would fade any move off the key number. Tough to see the line coming down because the Seahawks have such a strong home field. But, Atlanta’s definitely a team that can at least hang around the whole way, if not win outright. Should be a very heavily bet game…particularly if the weekend doesn’t offer many thrills. The public is dying to have a big football game to get invested in. Sportsbooks would love to have them!
I definitely have some strong opinions for both college and pro football this weekend. You can purchase my BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure you ask about combination packages when you call. More great college basketball on the schedule, and November is the easiest month to find ill-informed point spreads to attack.
Next week is Thanksgiving. I’ll move our normal schedule up a day so that I can talk about sharp betting for the early holiday action. That means I’ll see you WEDNESDAY to review how the Wise Guys have been betting important Thursday, Friday, and Saturday matchups. Then, I’ll be back at the usual time Friday to finish out the NFL. Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!