Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, November 10, 2017 at 12:00 PM
Seattle and Arizona played to a push for most bettors Thursday night (though sharps won with the dog at +6.5). Let’s take a look at line moves and sharp betting tendencies for the rest of the Week 10 NFL card. Games are listed in the order of the Nevada Rotation.
Minnesota at Washington: Not too much going on here. The opening line of Minnesota -2.5 is down to -1.5. Two isn’t a very common result. But the fact that it moved away from the key number of three is telling. Sharps don’t like the favorite or we would have moved quickly to Vikings -3. The game is still in the teaser window, meaning Washington +7.5 will be popular in two-team teasers if we don’t see any additional changes.
Green Bay at Chicago: Some stores were showing Chicago -3 before the Monday night game was played. But, once the Packers looked so bad against the Lions, later openers were at Chicago -5. We’re now seeing -5.5, because sharps still don’t want any part of Brett Hundley. The Bears are getting respect with the approach of “play great defense and keep things simple for Trubisky.” Green Bay’s defense isn’t good enough to make that work for the Packers. I think we would see sharp underdog money if +6 comes into play because that’s a lesser key number and Bears games don’t’ have a lot of points.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: The opener of Pittsburgh -10 has stood pat. On a key number, that means that sharps don’t like the favorite and are waiting to see if they can get a better price on the underdog over the weekend. We would have seen a solid -10.5 by now if any of the Wise Guy syndicates wanted the big favorite. If the public does lay the chalk on Saturday and Sunday, we might see a tug-of-war between Pittsburgh -10 and Indy +10.5. If not, a drop to Indy +9.5 might be in the offing.
LA Chargers at Jacksonville: An opener of Jacksonville -4 is down to -3.5. The Chargers continue to get respect from sharps because they have a knack for playing close games. Jacksonville’s offense is still suspect, which means they need cheap points off field position or turnovers to cover numbers over a field goal. If the line comes down to the key number of three, some sharps would definitely back the Jaguars then. Many already have Jacksonville on Regular Season Win Total bets from this past summer…which means they basically have the Jags at pick-em in this game anyway.
NY Jets at Tampa Bay: It would have been impossible to imagine during the summer that the Jets would be -2 on the road against the Bucs. New York was supposed to be one of those 0-16 threats because they didn’t have any talent. Tampa Bay was a darkhorse to make a Wildcard run. Instead, the Jets turned out to have some talent and great spirit. Tampa Bay barely shows up some weeks, and must now try to win with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Sharps have moved this line from pick-em to -2. No way it gets to three without a buy back. Tampa Bay is in the teaser window, meaning Bucs +8 will be popular in two-teamers with the Wise Guys.
Cincinnati at Tennessee: Tennessee opened at -4, and has been bet up to -4.5 or -5 depending on the store. Cincinnati didn’t play well last week in Jacksonville, which makes them hard to take on the road against a team that might be as good as Jacksonville. It might take six to bring in underdog money. We may just settle on the five, which is in the dead range between 3 and 7 that doesn’t drive much sharp interest. This isn’t a game the public will be interested in.
New Orleans at Buffalo: Looks like a tug-of-war brewing between New Orleans -2.5 and Buffalo +3. There are different sharp approaches that love both of those options. The quants love New Orleans generally this season (because the defense has improved), and think getting Drew Brees over Tyrod Taylor at less than a field goal is a steal. But, dog lovers, particularly if they’re “defensive dogs” will happily take the points in what they expect to be a straight up win. Plus, many old school guys like fading teams from the South whenever they play in the North after November 1. This could be a very heavily bet game, with sportsbooks praying the game doesn’t land exactly on the three.
Cleveland at Detroit: The high opening line of Detroit -12 has been bet down to Cleveland +11. The Lions don’t really play a blowout style these days, making it harder to win by double digits. Plus, the big chalk is in a letdown spot off a Monday Night road win over a divisional rival. Squares will leave the game alone because it’s not a marquee matchup. Sharps may keep betting the Browns all the way down to +10.
Houston at LA Rams: Sharps did like THIS double-digit favorite. An opener of Rams -10 is now up to -12 at many shops. This didn’t happen with Pittsburgh over Indy at the top of the schedule. And, we just saw that the Browns were getting the money rather than the Lions. The move from -10 up to -11 and -12 is what happens in the rare cases that sharps like a big favorite. It moves early and quick. Houston looked awful last week vs. Indy, and are expected to throw in the towel on their season given this kind of betting pattern.
Dallas at Atlanta: We’re still sitting on Atlanta -3 even after the news that Ezekiel Elliott would begin his suspension. The market largely expected that…so it was built into the line in advance. I wouldn’t expect this one to come off the key number of three. Dallas is getting a lot of respect lately, and would draw big money at +3.5. Atlanta -2.5. would be very appealing to the public and some quants.
NY Giants at San Francisco: Similar to Jets/Bucs in that the New York team drew some early interest at a very cheap price against a host that may not be trying to win. An opener of Giants -1 is up to -2.5. Not sure if sharp teaser players really want to take shots with either Tampa Bay or San Francisco at +8 or +8.5. Last week, bad teams San Francisco and Green Bay were in this price range, and lost by 10 and 13 points respectively.
New England at Denver: An opener of New England -7 was bet up to -7.5. Sharps who liked the favorite knew they wouldn’t get any better than -7 because the public loves the Pats. Sharps who like betting home dogs will wait to see what they can get. Though, there may be less interest here because the Broncos have played so poorly the past month. Plus, some sharps took a shot on Brock Osweiler last week in Philadelphia, and immediately regretted it.
Miami at Carolina: We’re still sitting on the opener of Carolina -9. That’s in a dead spot that might keep oddsmakers happy. A drop to Carolina -8 would bring in teaser interest on the Panthers -2 (because the six-point move would cross the 3 and the 7). A rise to ten would definitely bring in underdog money against an offense that’s had trouble scoring points. We’ll have to see what happens Monday. Is interest declining so much in the NFL these days that the public will largely PASS a Monday nighter? Might happen with this matchup at this price.
Some great games to bet all weekend, whether you’re talking college football, NFL, or the start of the new college basketball season. You can purchase my BEST BETS in all sports right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure you ask about combination packages when you call.
Back with you Thursday to look at more sharp football betting. We’re about to start a very exciting stretch in college football, and the playoff race is really heating up in the pros. Be sure you know what the sharps are betting before you make your final choices.