Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 27, 2017 at 2:00 PM
One game in the books, with Baltimore running away and hiding from Miami 40-0 in this week’s Thursday night matchup. Time to run through the rest of the weekend’s NFL card. Here’s how sharps have been betting so far. Games are presented in Nevada Rotation order.
Minnesota vs. Cleveland (in London, England): An opener of Minnesota -7.5 rose quickly to -9 or higher because of interest in Minnesota…and because sportsbooks didn’t want the Vikings sitting in the teaser window. At any line of -7.5, -8, or -8.5, books would have been flooded with two-team teaser bets featuring Minnesota at -1.5, -2, or -2.5. Remember that sharps love including any team in teasers that crosses by the 3 and the 7 in one fell swoop. Directors would rather ask for Cleveland money and take a position on Minnesota -9 or -9.5 than root for Cleveland to cover +2.5 without a quarterback against this strong Vikings defense. Dog lovers would definitely take the Browns +10 if that comes into play. A lot of sharps have jumped off the “bet the Browns for value” bandwagon for now, and will need to see double digits to get back on board.
Chicago at New Orleans: This game is also sitting right near that teaser window. New Orleans is either -8.5 or -9 depending on where you shop. And, that choice is often made by the sports book based on how much teaser exposure they want to have. A little easier to root for the Bears given their defensive play and recent success. Not much interest yet…though dog loving Wise Guys are much more likely to bet on the Bears than the Browns in these first two games. I’ll say it this way. Come Sunday, sharps will either be rooting for the Saints -2.5 or the Bears +9.
Atlanta at NY Jets: Atlanta opened at -4.5, and has been bet up to -5.5. Kind of a dead area on the scale because it’s between the key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps thinking about the home dog are waiting to see of +6 comes into play. That would definitely get some Wise Guys to the counter. Atlanta’s offense has been so shaky of late that few sharps are looking to invest in the Falcons.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay has been bet up from -1 to -2. Tough to like either side here because Carolina has been dealing with off-the-field turmoil while Tampa Bay’s defense has really been exposed. Carolina will be a popular teaser choice at +8 with Cam Newton facing this defense. Sharps who saw value on the home favorite bet at -1 or -1.5, but stopped at -2. Telling that it didn’t get closer to the key number of three.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: The first numbers up before the Monday Night game was played were around Philly -10.5. Once they re-established their great form, the market realized that was too low. Late openers came up at -13. That’s a high price that’s hard for sharps or squares to lay. Some stores are now seeing San Francisco +12.5. Clearly SF at +13 will be considered the sharp side…and the line could drop further given SF’s ability to play close games on the road this season.
Oakland at Buffalo: Looks like a tug-of-war shaping up between Buffalo -2.5 and Oakland +3. A competitive game like this has a good probability of landing right on the three. So, that makes BOTH of those favorable percentage plays for sharps. Tough to know how “the public” will bet this one because Oakland is very much a “public” team in Las Vegas. Squares usually take cheap favorites…so this could be a heavily bet game. Sharps will include Oakland +8.5 in what’s shaping up as a wheelbarrow full of teaser possibilities this week.
Indianapolis at Cincinnati: Cincinnati opened high at -10. We have seen the game go a tick or two higher given how poorly the Colts have been playing when not facing other terrible teams. I’m seeing -10.5 and -11 out there now. Dog lovers will step in. It might take a widely available +11 for that to happen. I don’t think the public will have much interest in this one. The math guys like Cincinnati -10, the systems guys and old-schoolers will buy back at +11.
LA Chargers at New England: New England opened at -7.5 after looking so good against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday Night. That’s been bought back down to the key number of seven. As soon as the market gave up on the Patriots, making them only -3 at home vs. Atlanta…the Patriots played a great game. I think we’re most likely to see a tug-of-war between New England -7 and the Chargers +7.5. It’s conceivable that squares won’t lay the TD though…keeping the game at the key number of seven or even bringing the Chargers +6.5 into play.
Houston at Seattle: An opener of Seattle -6 has been bet down to Houston +5.5. Very interesting game. Seattle hasn’t been playing to preseason expectations, while Houston is a playoff threat as long as Deshaun Watson continues to improve. The public has fallen out of love with Seattle, making a tug-of-war less likely. Sharps do like the dog at +6, and will come back in if the line rises from its current spot.
Dallas at Washington: Dallas opened around -2 or -2.5 on the heels of their 40-10 rout of San Francisco last week. Sharps seem more interested in taking Washington +8 or +8.5 in teasers than with straight bets below the field goal. If the public moves the Cowboys higher…then sharps would take the Redskins +3. Many of the math guys are getting Dallas gradings below the field goal because of Washington’s inconsistent defense.
Pittsburgh at Detroit We’ve been solidly on the three all week. There’s been more interest on the underdog than the favorite. So, if we move off the key number, it’s likely to be down to Pittsburgh -2.5. Teaser players who already like Detroit +3 will be ecstatic getting Detroit +8.5. Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up because squares love betting the Sunday night game…and squares love betting cheap favorites.
Denver at Kansas City (Monday Night): Denver’s fallen apart so badly of late that Kansas City opened at -7 in this divisional rivalry game despite losing its last two. Not a lot of betting interest yet. Money that has been coming in is on the home favorite. Some stores are testing -7.5. But, they sure don’t want to be there over the weekend because Kansas City -1.5. would be very popular in two-team teasers. And, sharps like to tease Monday Night options over two weeks when they can. By that, I mean that Kansas City can be used this weekend in two-teamers…but then also on Monday with NEXT week’s lines once those are widely available.
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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend. This is going to be a very exciting few days with some big football battles and what’s shaping up as an exciting World Series.