Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 20, 2017 at 12:00 PM
Quite a way to start the NFL weekend, with the Oakland Raiders scoring the game-winning TD on an “extra play” to upset the Kansas City Chiefs Thursday night. That was a big win for the houses in Nevada…as game day money was coming in pretty strong on the Chiefs from both sharps and squares. I’m happy the Raiders were a winner for my clients as well, part of a 3-0 night combining football and baseball.
Let’s see how the sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the rest of the pro football card this weekend. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
Tennessee at Cleveland: The opener of Tennessee -5 has been bet up to -6. We haven’t seen any buyback yet on the Browns…but at least Titans money stopped at that price. You’re hearing a lot of people in Las Vegas say “you just can’t bet on the Browns right how” because they were one of the few dogs not to get the money last week. It might take +6.5 or +7 to get the Wise Guys to bite. Dog lovers would definitely come in on the seven.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: It’s been a solid Jacksonville -3 all week. Some stores are starting to test Indy +3.5 because nobody was betting the Colts. The Jaguars haven’t been a good favorite this season. So, systems players will like the home dog. Pure “talent matchup” handicappers think the Colts are outmatched by almost everyone. That might cause a tug-of-war around the three this weekend. Not a game the public wants to bet.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The opener of Pittsburgh -6 was bet down a tick to Cincinnati +5.5. Pittsburgh finally looked like their old selves last week at Kansas City. But, they didn’t put a lot of points on the board, making it hard to lay this big a number with them. Sharps who have been winning big with dogs took the six after figuring that was likely the best they’d see.
Baltimore at Minnesota: An opener of Minnesota -4.5 is up to -5.5 because Baltimore is dealing with so many injuries. That’s not excitement about Case Keenum of the Vikings by any means. Very much “anti-Baltimore” money coming in. Dog players would hit the Ravens at +6 in what could be a defensive struggle. It’s hard to guess how much the public will drive up favorites this weekend because so many square bettors have gone broke in recent weeks laying so much chalk.
NY Jets at Miami: A opener of Miami -3.5 was quickly bet down to the field goal, where it’s been all week. This is a revenge spot for the Dolphins, who looked impressive in the second half of their upset of Atlanta last weekend. But, it’s still Jay Cutler laying points…which usually puts sharps on the other side. The Wise Guys took the hook when it was available. They’ll fade any move off the key number of three caused by public action.
Tampa Bay at Buffalo: No line posted yet because Jameis Winston may not be able to play for the Bucs after injuring his shoulder last week in Arizona.
Carolina at Chicago: An opener of Carolina -4 has been bet down to -3.5 at some stores, -3 at others. Chicago has played well at home so far this season, and won outright last week at Baltimore. Sharps aren’t as skeptical of Mitchell Trubisky as they are most other rookie quarterbacks. I expect a tug-of-war this weekend between Carolina -3 and Chicago +3.5. Carolina has extra rest and preparation time off a Thursday night appearance. That’s generally been favorable this season.
New Orleans at Green Bay: The Saints got up to as high as -6 (off an opener of -5.5) because Aaron Rodgers suffered that serious injury last week. Green Bay may have been favored in this price range if he was healthy. Underdog money came in on the Packers at +6, and them some more at +5.5, and then some more at +5. We’re seeing +4.5 and +4 everywhere right now. So, whoever liked the Saints initially at -5.5 has changed their minds…or is greatly outnumbered by other sharps. There’s no way the public is going to bet on Brett Hundley over Drew Brees. We’ll have to see what happens on game day. Squares will either pass or lay the points with the Saints. Looks like sharps will happily jump in on the Packers if +5 comes back into play.
Arizona at LA Rams: An opener of Rams -3 is up to -3.5 because this new coaching regime is getting a lot of respect from the market. But, Arizona did look much better last week with Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Carson Palmer needs a quality back to help keep opposing defenses honest. So, it’s more dog money than favorite money with the hook on the board. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a tug-of-war around the key number on Sunday. It’s a late kickoff, which gives the public more time to bet.
Dallas at San Francisco: A very solid Dallas -6 all week. Sharps have been waiting to see what happens with Ezekiel Elliot. The home dog will be perceived by some as a value bet because they keep playing such close games. But, sharps know that SF has to be exhausted after that long string of nailbiters, while the Cowboys are fresh and motivated coming off a bye. I would expect sharps to fade any move off the six, which isn’t quite as important a number as 3 or 7, but is still a relatively key number in the big picture.
Seattle at NY Giants: The opener of Seattle -7 was bet down once it was clear that the Giants could move the ball a little bit with their new receiving corps. We’re now seeing Seattle around -5 give-or-take across the market. Each store is trying to figure out whether it’s going to be -4.5, -5, or -5.5 that comes closer to balancing risk. Five is a relatively dead number. I doubt the public wants any part of the shorthanded Giants. We’ll have to see if squares ride the Seahawks on game day.
Denver at the LA Chargers: A flipped favorite here, as the Chargers opened +1 but are now -1. Denver is hard to trust after that horrible loss to the Giants last week. And, the Chargers do have revenge off a Week One loss on a Monday Night in Denver. Actually, it’s hard to trust either of these teams as a favorite. When it doubt, go with the veteran quarterback. That’s a big part of why more sharps like the host here…with Philip Rivers getting the nod over Trevor Siemian.
Atlanta at New England: This Super Bowl rematch might have been as high as -6 or -7 if it had started the season on the traditional Thursday night opening. The league saved it for later in the year…and we’re now seeing just -3 or -3.5. for the disappointing Patriots. The opener of New England -4.5 was bet all the way down a field goal. It’s bounced off that low in some stores already. Squares would very likely bet -3 if it’s available through the day Sunday. Sharps have established they’ll bet +3.5 or better. A likely tug-of-war in this highly anticipated rematch.
Washington at Philadelphia: Not much happening yet because there’s no sense of urgency to be around a dead number like the opener of Philly -5. Sharps didn’t immediately drive that higher toward the key number of seven…so we know that the Wise Guys don’t want the Eagles here. Some early money on the Redskins. Most sharps are waiting to see if the public gives them something better than +5. May not happen unless all the chalk wins Sunday and squares have more money in their pockets Monday.
The week’s already off to a good start with my Thursday wins on the Raiders, Arkansas State in college football, and the LA Dodgers wrapping up the NL pennant in the bases. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card every day. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Please check on combination packages that include the rest of the baseball playoffs and basketball.
Thanks for joining me again this week. See you next Thursday for another review of sharp betting action.