Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Friday, October 13, 2017 at 2:00 PM
The first NFL result of the week is in already, with the Philadelphia Eagles scoring a road upset against the Carolina Panthers. We now move to the rest of the Week 6 pro football card. There are four teams with byes this week. Those are: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Seattle. As always, games are presented in Nevada Rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.
Cleveland at Houston: We have some tall pointspreads this week because the bad teams aren’t all matched up against each other. This one opened Houston -9, and has been bet up to -9.5 despite the fact that the Texans lost key defenders this past Sunday night to injury…and despite the fact that the Browns benched a horrible rookie quarterback in favor of a more experienced hand. Some stores are starting to test Houston -10 because nobody wants to touch the Browns with a 10-foot pole unless they’re getting that much. Sharps will take Cleveland at the key number if that becomes more widely available. Much easier to come through the back door against a shorthanded defense.
New England at NY Jets: An opener of New England -9 is up to -9.5 at most places. There hasn’t been much action yet, and different stores are trying out different numbers to see if that brings in bets. We know that sharps don’t like the Patriots because nobody important stepped in to drive the line up to -10. Just like the game above, the Wise Guys will take an ugly dog at double digits. There’s a lot of respect for long term trends that show favorable percentages.
Miami at Atlanta: An opener of Atlanta -10 has been bet all the way up to -12 or -12.5 in some spots. This is what happens when sharps like a favorite! The money comes in strong EARLY before the public has a chance to bet. Miami’s looked awful in recent weeks, even in their win over Tennessee last Sunday. Atlanta is coming off a bye. That usually gets respect from sharps. This season in particular, rested teams off Thursday nighters have done well. Miami money would come in if +13 comes into play. Sharps really like Atlanta at -12 or below even with long term histories favoring big dogs.
Detroit at New Orleans: This line rose from -3 to -5 on the news that Matthew Stafford was hobbled after getting hurt last week in the loss to Carolina. We’ve seen some buy back at +5, bringing +4.5 into play at most shops right now. That suggests that Stafford is showing improvement in movement later in the week.
Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers opened at -4. We’ve seen it bet down to -3 because there’s respect for the Vikings as a home dog on this field. The assumption is that Sam Bradford won’t be able to play for awhile given his poor movement this past Monday Night before being benched. Sharps liked Case Keenum to hang tough in a defensive battle at +4 or +3.5. Vikings money stopped on the key number. Packers money hasn’t come in yet, which is telling. I would expect the public to like the Pack on game day, setting up a tug-of-war between squares on Green Bay -3, and sharps on Minnesota +3.5.
Chicago at Baltimore: An opener of Baltimore -7 was bet down to +6.5, where it’s stayed ever since. That’s very important because there wasn’t an immediate buy back on the Ravens below the key number. The Wise Guys liked what they saw from Mitchell Trubisky in a close loss to the Vikings. They know Joe Flacco has been much worse than usual this season because of a bad back. Sharps LOVED getting plus 7 here. If the public lays the chalk Sunday, sharps will love taking plus 7 again!
San Francisco at Washington: Another double digit spread. We’ve been hopping between Washington -10.5 and San Francisco +11 all week. San Francisco’s in a tough schedule spot…a third road game after the first two went overtime. Washington is well-rested after a bye week. About as big as you can get without a Thursday or Monday involved. Old school Wise Guys are taking +11. Most sharps are passing the game to this point.
LA Rams at Jacksonville: An opener near pick-em was bet up quickly to Jacksonville -2.5, where it’s stayed all week. We’re deep into the schedule, but this is the first matchup sitting in the teaser window. Sharps will happily take the Rams +8.5 in two-team six-point teasers if they can find a good game to pair it with. The Jags are in a letdown spot after a big win at Pittsburgh last week. The Rams lost a toughie to Seattle. At least it’s not a bad body clock game for the Rams. Sharps liked Jacksonville at pick-em and -1, and a bit more at -2. Syndicates would come in strong on Rams +3 of that comes into play.
Tampa Bay at Arizona: An opener of pick-em rose to Tampa Bay -1.5 or -2. This puts Arizona (+) in the teaser window to pair with the Rams. But, the Cardinals have been so overrated all season in market pricing that some sharps may cut back or pass it. Teasers offer the best value when prices are solid…because the points you’re “buying” are valuable. With the Cardinals, tougher call at the moment. Tampa Bay has extra rest and preparation time after playing last Thursday night vs. New England. That advantage keyed this early line move more than anything else.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City: The big game of the day, but it’s not near any key numbers. An opener of Kansas City -4 has been bet up to -4.5 by a few quant driven syndicates that bet off of stats. Kansas City has great stats! Pittsburgh has struggled…but it’s hard for many sharps to believe that they’ll be pushovers as underdogs. And, that’s particularly true off an embarrassing home loss. We may not see much sharp action here unless the public drives it all the way to Steelers +5.
LA Chargers at Oakland: No line yet because of the quarterback situation in Oakland. Plus, the California wildfires have gotten so bad that this game could conceivably be moved to another stadium.
NY Giants at Denver: Denver opened below the key number of -10 at -9.5, but shot all the way up to -11.5. Some stores are testing -12. You probably know the Giants lost most of their receiving corps to injuries, and are trying to piece something together with duct tape. Denver doesn’t have a blowout offense. But, you can make the case that the Giants will be lucky to score a TD, which makes a spread like this easier to cover. Dog lovers would come in at +13, and still might take a flyer on game day if +12 is destined to be the apex. Sharps liked the chalk at -11 or better, and moved in advance of the public.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: No line yet because of the quarterback situation in Tennessee. Matt Cassel struggled badly at Miami last week. Marcos Mariota hopes to make it back on the field.
Some interesting challenges for bettors this week. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card every day. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. Please check on combination packages that feature football, the ALCS...NLCS…and World Series from the baseball playoffs…as well as the NBA.
As always, thanks very much for reading. See you next Thursday for my next football sharps report.