Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Thursday, September 7, 2017 at 10:00 AM
This season, I’ll be posting two “sharps” reports per week. Each Thursday I’ll take a look at how the Wise Guys have been betting all the Thursday and Friday action, along with the most important marquee matchups in Saturday’s college football. Then, on Friday, I’ll have the traditional NFL report that covers Sunday and Monday.
The pro football season begins TONIGHT with Kansas City visiting New England. Let’s start with that one.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: All last season, squares bet the Patriots while sharps faded them…and the public kept right on cashing tickets to the tune of 16-3. Similar situation here…as the public wants Tom Brady while sharps are thinking that the line is now too high. A summer opener around -8 or -8.5 went up to -9 not too long ago. Early Thursday morning, many stores were testing -9.5 because the public may stick with the Pats at anything below the ten. Dog lovers will bide their time to see what they can get. I do expect a flood of sharp money to hit the Chiefs between now and kickoff. The total has gone up from 48 to 49 because of public betting as well.
Ohio at Purdue: College football decided not to put anything exciting up against the NFL opener. So, we move to Friday to begin the regular board. Purdue opened at -4 off their impressive performance against Louisville last week. Sharps are looking at the dog figuring the favorite will be flat. No reason to wait because Purdue isn’t a “public” favorite. So, we’ve seen a drop to Ohio +3.5 already. Might come down to the key number of three before squares decide to take any shots.
Oklahoma State at South Alabama: Oklahoma State was steamed hard over the summer in their season opener against Tulsa. All that money won…and has no reason not to do the same thing here. An opener of Okie State -24 is all the way up to -28, with -28.5 being tested in some spots. If the hook holds…that’s very strong support for the favorite, blowing through a key number like that.
Memphis at Central Florida: This is a date-change because of the hurricane threatening Florida this weekend. UCF moved the game up from Saturday since it’s a conference matchup that can’t just be cancelled. Central Florida opened at -3. A few places have moved to -3.5 in the limited time this game has been on the board. (Whenever a game changes dates in Nevada, all bets are refunded, then the game goes up fresh for the new date).
SATURDAY MARQUEE MATCHUPS
Auburn at Clemson: There are four true blockbusters on the Saturday schedule. Too bad they’re all on TV at the same time! The first one matches last season’s National Champion against a popular darkhorse in the SEC West. I talked to a few sharps this summer who thought Auburn had a real chance to take down Alabama in that division. I’m not sure if they’re still thinking that after ‘Bama bullied Florida State last week! Sharps have definitely hit the road underdog Tigers here, as the opener of +6 is down to +5.5 or +5. Telling that sharps didn’t wait to see if they could get +6.5 or +7. They knew other sharps wanted Auburn too.
Georgia at Notre Dame: Weird situation here. The “Game of the Year” lines that came out this summer had this one near pick-em because Georgia was supposed to be the better team. But, respected Notre Dame money hit the Temple game so hard last week that this week’s new line was up around Notre Dame -6! The dog has been hit hard all week, which has us at Georgia +4 as I prepare this report for you. Each team has its constituencies that are expecting big things this season. And those groups both cashed tickets last week vs. Appalachian State and Temple respectively. Could turn out that one or both are again big disappointments.
Oklahoma at Ohio State: Looks like we have a tug-of-war shaping up here between Ohio State -7 and Oklahoma State +7.5. Many oddsmakers have the Buckeyes neck-and-neck with Alabama in their Power Ratings. I know a few sharps who aren’t as high on Ohio State…and who like the coaching change at Oklahoma. This could be the official coming out party for Lincoln Riley. The public is probably going to find Ohio State appealing at -7 on game day…making this a very heavily bet game.
Stanford at USC: USC was as high as -7 on the first numbers up this week…but that got knocked down fast because Stanford looked great against Rice and had extra preparation time against a favorite that disappointed last week. We’re now seeing Stanford +6 and +6.5 in most places (after getting as low as +5.5). This should be another tug-of-war between squares on the favorite and sharps on the dog. Tough to say now whether that’s going to happen at -6 and +6.5, or at -6.5 and +7.
On my personal service, I’m never one to force a play just because a game is on TV. But, I do expect to have at least one play in one of the prime time college games we’ve talked about. You can purchase my daily BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155.
Back with you tomorrow to look at the rest of the NFL. Enjoy Chiefs/Patriots tonight on NBC. I can assure you that the city of Las Vegas is thrilled to have pro football action back on the big screen TV’s in their newly refurbished sports books!