Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 12:00 PM
Action begins Thursday night for the second full week of the 2017 NFL Preseason. Let’s see how the sharps have been betting these games so far. We’ll take them in Nevada rotation order.
Baltimore at Miami: Looks like we’re going to have a soft tug-of-war between the opener of Miami -2.5 and Baltimore +3. The field goal isn’t as important a number in preseason football, though two games landed on it last week (one dog, one favorite winning by that much). Baltimore didn’t play as well as the score made it look last week vs. Washington. Miami is still working out its QB issues. Sharps are playing line value, but don’t love either side.
Buffalo at Philadelphia: Mostly a solid four, with the Eagles as a home favorite. Some stores are testing Philly -4.5. Both teams lost badly last week, by scores of 17-10 and 24-9 respectively. Sharps respect the Eagles aggressiveness under this coach in exhibition action. Wasn’t justified last week, which is slowing support this week.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville: Big move here, and a flipped favorite as the opener of Jacksonville -2.5 has moved all the way to Tampa Bay -1. We may see some buy back toward pick-em between now and kick off. Sharps know that the Jags had some fortunate big plays in last week’s upset of New England. And, Jameis Winston may play deeper than most first-team QB’s normally do this week.
Minnesota at Seattle: Might be a great game! Minnesota has a great cover record under this head coach, and Seattle often brings intensity to home games in August. Both teams won last week, with Seattle really impressing against the Chargers. An opener of Seattle -3 has held strong. Will be interesting to see how the public plays this. Any move below the three would probably bring in Seattle money strong even with the Vikings ATS history.
Carolina at Tennessee: The opener of Tennessee -2.5 was bet up to -3…with some stores testing -3.5. That’s actually a BIG move for a preseason game around a key number. Sharps seem to think the Panthers will take a week off after beating Houston, while Tennessee will bring a lot more intensity than they did in a very poor loss to the Jets.
Kansas City at Cincinnati: The opener of Cincinnati -2 was bet down to -1. Another suggestion of a reversal from last week…when Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay by 11 but Kansas City was upset at home by San Francisco.
Indianapolis at Dallas: Dallas opened at a whopping -5.5 points. That tells you how little oddsmakers think of the Colts when Andrew Luck can’t play. Dallas looked awful against the Rams last week. But, they do have an extra week of preparation thanks to the Hall of Fame game. And, this is a home opener which might inspire more intensity. Old time sharps will look at the big ugly dog just on principal, kind of like what you see with double digit point spreads in the regular season.
NY Jets at Detroit: Another big number, as Detroit opened -5. Sharps were betting this favorite, as -5.5 is in play at most stores as I write this. Detroit had some good numbers in its 24-10 win at Indy last Sunday, while the Jets looked pretty horrible even though they won their game 7-3 vs. Tennessee. We’re very likely to see the 2017 Jets priced like the 2016 Browns once the regular season starts. Indianapolis with Tolzien will be down near the bottom of the Power Ratings too.
Green Bay at Washington: An opener of Washington -3 is up to -3.5. Not sure if we’ll see a tug-of-war above the key number or not. Green Bay doesn’t have a history of big Preseason efforts. Their stats weren’t impressive last week when they beat Philadelphia. Washington is coming off a complete no-show in Baltimore. Sharps expect something better than three points and 138 yards based on historical trends.
New England at Houston: Many in Las Vegas are looking forward to this game. Tom Brady should see some action. And, his backups usually play entertaining football. The Houston quarterback war led to more than 400 yards of total offense last week for the Texans. An opener of Houston -1 has been bet up to -1.5, which doesn’t mean much in that low price range.
Denver at San Francisco: A lot of early report for San Francisco, as an opener of -1 has been bet up to -2.5. We haven’t seen a three come into play yet. Dog lovers would likely jump on the Broncos if that happened. San Francisco impressed (in Preseason terms) at Kansas City last week. Looked like they were trying to win the game. Denver won thanks to a pick six, while making Mitchell Trubisky look like a star. I know a few sharps who are happy with their early positions on the Niners.
LA Rams at Oakland: Nothing happening yet off the opener of Oakland -3. Sharps are really down on the Rams, even though they eked out an ugly 13-10 win over Dallas last week. If Oakland was expected to bring much effort, they’d have been laying -4 or -5 here.
Chicago at Arizona: The opener of Arizona -3.5 has been bet down to the key number of three. Sharps were impressed with Trubisky, but only enough to move the game down to +3 rather than through the key number. Arizona does have an extra week of preparation this month. Plus, Chicago couldn’t win last week even though Trubisky played so well.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh: You don’t see many five-point moves in exhibition football. Though, this one managed to do that without crossing any key numbers! Atlanta opened at +2.5, but is now -2.5 on the road against a team that’s known to care very little about Preseason wins. Pittsburgh did grab a 20-12 decision over the Giants last week. It was an ugly win with poor stats though. We haven’t seen the full three come into play yet because Atlanta didn’t impress in a loss at Miami last week. Pittsburgh is basically the Cleveland Browns of Preseason!
New Orleans at LA Chargers: Still sitting solidly on the opener of Chargers -3. Both teams lost last week while playing sloppy football. Not one that sharps are touching with a 10-foot pole at the moment.
NY Giants at Cleveland: Cleveland opened at -1.5. Sharps have liked the Giants enough to move the number that way. Some stores are showing pick-em. Some have tested Giants -1 for a bit. Cleveland didn’t play well until their third team quarterback was on the field last week. The Giants lost ugly to Pittsburgh.
I have my eye on a few spots this weekend. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. I have daily baseball releases to go along with exhibition football if you’d like to play both sports this month.
Thanks for reading. See you again next week to study how sharps are betting all the dress rehearsal games in the most important week of the Preseason. See you then!