Submitted by Richie Baccellieri on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 at 4:00 PM
The biggest sports betting news story this summer hasn’t involved Major League Baseball, or early betting for college and pro football. It hasn’t involved any of the big NBA trades, or even the drama surrounding New Jersey’s pending visit to the Supreme Court in hopes of getting sports betting legalized everywhere.
The biggest story, FAR AND AWAY is the intense betting activity for the upcoming “fight” between famous sports bettor (and boxing legend) Floyd Mayweather and MMA combatant Conor McGregor.
We don’t release betting selections for boxing or MMA here at this website. But, the lessons from what’s happening with the MONEY are important for all of you to be aware of.
First, you need to know that:
*McGregor has virtually no chance of winning this fight unless he gets extremely lucky with one punch, or if something fishy is going on.
*The vast majority of money coming in is on McGregor ANYWAY, even though boxing experts believe he’ll be completely outclassed and embarrassed.
Betting on McGregor is like betting on an apple to fall UP. Yet, the general public (some with deep pockets) are betting in droves on that apple to fall UP. And, McGregor’s countrymen from overseas haven’t even arrived in Las Vegas yet. Wait until THEY get here! I can tell you that Vegas sports books are already concerned about their exposure here…and they know it’s going to get worse. Even if they find a price that brings in Mayweather money, it’s not going to counteract the heavy volume that will be on the books for the underdog.
What are the lessons?
First and most important, bettors of all types like “jackpot” payoffs. Vegas makes a lot more money on slot machines than they do on sports betting. Gamblers want to risk a little with a chance to win a lot. That’s why parlays are so popular (and “parlay cards” at local shops). McGregor backers have gotten at least 6/1 or better since the fight was announced. There have already been some HUGE local bets this week at that price (emphasizing “win by knockout,” because there’s no way McGregor is going to win on points).
Secondly, public money tends to bet when they have the opportunity, rather than timing the market. Big bets made this week on McGregor could have been made earlier at much better prices. You regulars already know that sharps (professional bettors) are waiting to see how low the moneyline goes before betting McGregor. Imagine getting what seems like a sure thing and only laying -400 or -500! Sharps are waiting to get the best price for their money. Squares just want to hit a jackpot, even if it could have been a bigger jackpot earlier.
Thirdly, the public tends to bet too much on emotion rather than logic. Frankly, it’s INSANE that this much money could come in on a guy that has no chance. If they had this fight 100 times, how often would McGregor win? Possibly ZERO! He might not even be a true 100/1 shot, but bettors who either “hate Mayweather” or “love big upsets” are putting their money down at a fraction of true value.
My fellow oddsmakers can’t believe our eyes, even though we knew something like this was coming. Sportsbooks are going to have to accept their positions, then hope nothing crazy happens. Feast or famine…with a sportsbook feast being the heavy favorite.
What YOU should take from this:
*Look for real value
*Don’t bet based on emotion
*Don’t chase jackpots, because sportsbooks charge you a premium to do so
During football and basketball season, I’m usually the one telling you how sharps focus on underdogs while the public bets favorites. And, THAT’S TRUE when we’re talking about pointspreads. Taking plus or minus points doesn’t offer jackpot potential at 11/10 unless you’re throwing a bunch of teams into ill-advised parlays.
*The general public (squares) will lay too many points at 11/10 on pointspreads, but then take not enough of a return when they want to chase jackpots.
*Professional wagerers (sharps) will take those extra points at 11/10 to grind out a profit, but aren’t afraid to lay higher moneylines if REAL value is being offered. Laying 5/1 or 6/1 or even 10/1 or 20/1 is a bargain if the “true” odds of an event happening are 100/1.
I want you to think like a sharp and bet like a sharp. Today’s discussion on McGregor/Mayweather’s boxing handle will do that better than anything I could say right now about baseball. These are important lessons you should take to heart.
If you’d like to make day-to-day baseball part of your betting approach, your friend behind the line is here to help. You can purchase my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about monthly packages, or early bird football, call the VSM office at 1-888-777-4155. I don’t release many major releases. We chip away to exploit value from the market where it’s offered as we build our bankrolls the sharp way.
Thanks for reading. See you again next week to talk about handicapping the NFL exhibition season. Don’t forget that the Hall of Fame game is Thursday August 3! Football is almost here…so make sure you’re ready.