Submitted by Wayne Root on Friday, July 14, 2017 at 3:00 PM
You long time readers know that I’m still very much in touch with what’s happening in the New York sports scene even though I’ve lived in Las Vegas for many years. I was born a true S.O.B. (son of a butcher!) in Mt. Vernon, NY. I still have great sources with New York teams in all the betting sports.
The All-Star Break provides a great opportunity to take stock of what’s happened in the first half of a baseball season, and to map out expectations for what’s ahead. I’ve just done that in my own handicapping process for the Yankees and the Mets. I wanted to share some thoughts on both teams with you now that the games are about to begin.
*First, BOTH teams have been money losers this season because they haven’t lived up to expectations. The Mets were very overrated before the season started, projected by the “Regular Season Win” markets to make a run at 90 wins and a Wildcard. Instead, because of injuries and poor performances, they’ll be lucky to get close to .500 for the season. The Yankees started out red hot, but THEN became very overrated right before a long slump. The Bronx Bombers are still in the AL pennant chase. But, they’re not playing like a playoff team lately.
Mets: 39-47, minus 15.5 betting units
Yankees: 45-41, minus 8 betting units
Not many smiling faces for bettors who support these teams!
*Secondly both teams closed the first half poorly. The Mets lost five of their last six before the Break. The Yankees were 7-18 their last 25 games. So, while NYY is still four games over .500 at the moment, they were an amazing 15 games over .500 a month ago! That’s what I mean about the Mets being overrated at the outset of the season…the Yankees become overrated well into the season after a surprisingly hot start (led by slugger Aaron Judge).
*There is some good news on the Over/Under front. Both teams share the combination of “strong offense,” with “disappointing pitching.” Mets’ games are 49-27-10 to the Over this season, a big moneymaker for those who noticed the trend early. The Yankees are 49-36-1 to the Over themselves. If you like high scoring baseball, then these are the teams for you. I should mention that oddsmakers have made an adjustment across the Majors to the juiced ball. So, you should pick your spots betting Overs with both the Mets and Yankees moving forward. There will still be some great situational spots to exploit. But, you probably won’t be able to ride the Overs every day and maintain those current percentages. (Late bulletin! Just as I was about to post this article, news broke that Michael Pineda had suffered a turn UCL and may have to undergo Tommy John surgery. That will only help Yankees Overs unless they trade for a high quality starter).
*One final thing I noticed about the Mets that I wanted to mention. This team is really overmatched against good teams. But, they can still offer value against other disappointments. NYM is a horrible 5-21 vs. opponents who had a .500 record or better at the Break, but are 34-26 against losing teams. If the NL East continues to be a weak division, that will give the Mets a chance to cash some tickets for you as they try to work their way back to .500. Just don’t ask them to win as dogs vs. good teams!
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is the KING of underdog betting. That will largely have me avoiding Mets games from both directions until their tendencies change. But, I will definitely look to fade the Yankees as favorites if they continue to slide. They’ll be dogs all weekend in Boston. But, on their next homestand…and then through the heart of the summer I’ll be fading the Yanks as chalk if they can’t fix their pitching woes.
Will I take any shots on the Yankees as underdogs in that big series in Boston? You’ll have to be a paying client to find out! I’ll definitely be checking in with my sources back East. Maybe I’ll go against Rick Porcello or David Price on Sunday. Maybe I’ll be looking at the Mets as home dogs vs. Colorado if my handicapping suggests the Rockies’ bubble has burst.
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As I’ve been telling you for months, I’m having a GREAT baseball season exploiting some very bad Las Vegas lines. I’m the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in town. I’m always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers. If one ever gets his own star, it will naturally be a few steps behind mine!
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