Submitted by Winning Edge on Friday, June 30, 2017 at 1:00 PM
I just closed out the month of June with an 8-2 record on PINNACLE baseball releases. This seemed like a good time to review the key factors that go into my most elite selections.
You’ll often hear the phrase “squares bet on teams, but sharps bet on prices.” I have to tell you that the best bets on the board are a MIX of those two! You definitely want to bet the right teams at the right prices when it comes to investing really big money. I’m not going to ask my clients to make a big investment on a game unless:
*Our “take” team is perfectly positioned to perform very well
*Our “go against” team is in a likely flat spot
*The market price is way off the mark
This is why so many of my biggest plays are underdogs (in games where they’re actually the real favorite) or short favorites (in games where they actually should be laying at least -200). There’s no reason to make a big bet if your team is in a great situation but the moneyline is -250! You’re not getting any value because they have to win three out of four times just for you to earn a little bit over the long haul. I want you on games where the worst-case scenario over a month is that we break even or earn a little…with a high end possibility for a really big score.
So, market price (moneylines in baseball or point spreads in football and basketball) should always be a top consideration when making your Las Vegas bets. Almost all of June’s PINNACLE plays were either dogs or pick-ems.
This latest run has also involved riding teams who are in good recent form, and/or fading teams who are struggling. Some of the math guys will tell you this stuff doesn’t matter. That, hot streaks or cold streaks are just illusions created by randomness. This is why none of the math guys have a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas! There are definitely situations where teams get hot for clear reasons, or cool off because something’s gone wrong.
What drives hot streaks?
*Personnel changes that weed out struggling players
*An “us against the world” attitude
*Hitters getting to perform in parks that magnify their strengths
*The positive mindset that comes from having success
What drives cold streaks?
*Previously hot players cooling off as opponents make adjustments
*Overconfidence or complacency
*Players getting sick of, or just flat hating their manager
*Hitters running into ballparks that suppress their strengths
*The negative mindset that comes from recent failures
What’s great about baseball is that the same team can ebb and flow through these different states of mind! We saw that with the New York Yankees recently (which I talked about earlier this week). The Colorado Rockies are going through something similar now, a crisis in confidence after they cooled off. Your “take” teams in May might be your “fade” teams in June. Someone you loved in April could be poison in July.
I’d have to say that “mindset” right now is the main “intangible” that will kick a play up from normal Root Trust status into an urgent PINNACLE status. I encourage you do-it-yourself handicappers to pay more attention to this. Know what teams are doing over the past week or two, in addition to evaluating their overall strengths and weaknesses.
I should also mention that you probably need to focus more on OFFENSE than you’re used to. I emphasize this in all sports. You want teams who are going to outscore their opponents rather than just valiantly lose a close game. This is even more important in baseball because your dogs have to win outright. Too many media pundits in our field talk about starting pitching as if the Vegas lines are only based on pitchers. That’s wrong…but it actually helps us because it opens the door for great underdog bets on teams likely to score a bunch of runs. Don’t be the guy who only looks at stats for starting pitchers. Be the guy who outsmarts that guy!
Or, sign up with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS who’s been outsmarting oddsmakers for decades. You can purchase my daily baseball BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services in the full Root Trust best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155. Remember to ask about early rates for football when you call. The NFL Preseason will be here before you know it because the summer is flying by!
Back with you next week with more sports betting advice. Here’s an early heads-up that I have something special planned for my clients on the Fourth of July. Of course, life is always a celebration when you’re part of my team. It’s time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!