Submitted by Jim Hurley on Saturday, June 24, 2017 at 1:00 PM
Friday night the Baltimore Orioles got waxed by the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 15-5. You’ve probably heard by now that this was the twentieth straight time that the Orioles had allowed at least five runs in a game. That ties a Major League record that goes back decades.
In handicapping terms, that streak of woeful pitching up and down the rotation and bullpen has yielded:
*A 6-14 straight up record for the Orioles
*A 13-6-1 record to the OVER on totals bets
So, betting on Baltimore’s opponents and the Over is 27-12-1 during that 20-game stretch. A fairly simple strategy that the market doesn’t have much defense for until the Orioles start getting people out!
Of course, oddsmakers ARE trying to defend. Tampa Bay was a huge favorite Friday night, and the prices continue to rise because this is a bandwagon people have been jumping on. The totals are going up too. But, it would take totals near 12 per game to even out this recent stretch (games are actually still 10-9-1 to the Over if all the games had been as 12).
Can oddsmakers make the Orioles huge dogs with a total of 12 every night?
We wanted to post this special article today…NOT to talk to you about how to bet Orioles games right now. That cat is out of the bag. The lines will soon have over-adjusted…and Baltimore will eventually find somebody who can throw some productive innings. Our point today is to remind you that there are similar situations all over Major League Baseball this season. Not 20-game streaks of ineptitude…but long stretches where mediocre or worse pitchers are overmatched.
*A change in how baseballs are made has jacked up home run totals
*The weather continues to get warmer across the nation
*Many pitchers who had good early runs are either getting tired or regressing to the mean
*There aren’t enough good pitchers to go around!
Taking “opponent and Over” is going to make sense in all of the following situations…
*A team is forced to use a poor starting pitcher, or a minor league call-up
*That same team has poor middle relief, or a closer they can’t trust
*The opponent has a few home run hitters
*The game is being played in hot weather or a good home run park
Baltimore isn’t the only team that falls into this situation on a day-to-day basis. They’re the only team that falls into it EVERY day! But, other teams see it a couple of times a week. Maybe more for a few teams (which we won’t name until the market adjusts since we’re exploiting the edge this month).
We want to be clear that this betting strategy isn’t a “lock” to sweep. Don’t use it in parlays. Even during this recent Baltimore stretch, they’ve been losing some games that stayed Under (6-3, 5-1, 5-2 for example), and they’ve been scoring enough on offense to win anyway (8-5, 15-7, 10-6). If you go parlay crazy, you turn a few “no-harm-no-foul” splits into losses. We would only consider parlays when UNDERDOGS are in position to put up a big number. Those underdog payoffs improve the percentages…but you’d better be picky. It may be awhile before any team facing Baltimore is an underdog again.
By playing “opponent and Over” in tandem form, you’re typically looking at 1-1 or 2-0 until the lines adjust. That grinds out a profit at the very worst…and gives you some hot streaks if a pitching staff just gives up hope.
The increase in scoring has been a reality in baseball since the All-Star Break in 2015 (when the newly made balls were introduced, which happened to coincide with the general emphasis on higher swing planes for batters). Smart bettors have adjusted but now. But, there are too many stubborn stragglers who are still trying to handicap the old way. Recognize what’s happening on the field so you can stay ahead of the betting marketplace. Look to fade teams who haven’t been able to deal with the new realities.
If you’re having trouble with baseball this season, we hope you’ll sign up with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK the rest of the way. You can always purchase BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card on game days. If you have any questions about this weekend or extended service, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155. We don’t win every day…but we do our best to find you the best betting options on every schedule.
And 25-plus years of returning clients will tell you that we do just that. We treat oddsmakers like they’re the Baltimore pitching staff. GO DEEP today and EVERY DAY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!