Submitted by Jim Hurley on Sunday, May 28, 2017 at 1:00 PM
If you walked by a newsstand within the past few days, you probably noticed that the Athlon annual and other publications were already out. That’s the signal for YOU to start getting ready for the 2017 college football season.
And, with Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks already posting early futures prices and Week One lines, you now have additional motivation! You can bet your edges now if you live in the right places. Or, you can at least use those lines to help you pin down your own ratings for all the board teams.
Where to start?
As much as we love Athlon, we have to admit that they can in advertently help you find OVERRATED teams right off the bat. For every great team they nail, they also have one or two who turn out to be duds. The best way to make money in college football is to fade the duds. There’s usually not much value in backing an elite team every week because they’re always priced to perfection. Going against a team that was priced to a pure illusion is free money if you can find those overrated teams early.
Which teams are most likely to be overrated? Here’s a short list.
*Teams in the Big 10…because the media WAY overhypes most of the teams in that league, partly because ESPN is the hype generator and they are corporate partners with the Big 10.
*Teams in the Big 12…though this has worn off some because the sports betting world has caught on to how far this conference has fallen. Think about how good Texas was supposed to be last year after they opened the season with a win over Notre Dame.
*Teams who had to change quarterbacks. It’s rare to see a team with a quality, experienced quarterback suddenly collapse. Those surprise setbacks come to teams who had to go to a new quarterback because a prior star graduated…and the new starter isn’t nearly as good. Athlon and other preseason publications will anticipate a level of production that just isn’t going to be there.
*Teams who lost a lot of defensive starters. Suddenly opponents are scoring much more easily, and the pressure is on the offense to keep up. Oklahoma has had some seasons like this…and other fast break teams as well. It’s very hard to cover as pricey favorites if your defense can’t keep opponents out of the end zone. Preseason publications fall back on the “reload” assessment for powers, but defenses aren’t always able to do that.
*Successful programs that lost their head coach to a bigger school, or to the NFL. Oregon turned mortal when Chip Kelly left for the NFL. Say what you want about the ethics at Baylor, the on-field product fell apart when they had to fire Art Briles. Make a short list of last year’s winning programs that lost their head coach so you can be ready to fade them if there are early struggles.
Obviously, COMBINATIONS of these factors can really blow up. A team in an overrated conference that has to deal with a new head coach and new starting quarterback could get obliterated in September action against non-conference foes. A new quarterback on one side, and an inexperienced defense on the other is a recipe for disaster.
So, go grab an Athlon from your favorite store or newsstand, and get busy!
Be sure to note:
Returning starter counts
Last year’s won-lost and ATS record
Last year’s stat rankings on offense and defense
Then, as you begin to put together your team ratings, pay attention to the futures prices and early lines from Las Vegas. There are Week 1 lines out. Those popular “Game of the Year” lines will be out soon. Studying this material gives you a sense of how oddsmakers see things…and how early smart money sees things. Most big line moves are the result of sharp betting (the public isn’t ready to bet college football in May!). You’re not only doing your own homework, but copying from the homework of oddsmakers and sharps as well!
Obviously, JIM HURLEY won’t be releasing formal college football selections until the last Saturday in August (when a handful of regular season games hit the schedule). But, he and his full team of experts will be using the summer to get ready. His SCOUTS AND SOURCES will be reviewing game film from last season and spring practice. His STATHEADS will be reviewing all the numbers from 2016, and making smart projections for what’s ahead this year. His COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS will be tweaking the simulations to get ready for those openers…and the whole first month of non-conference action. And, his friends BEHIND THE LINE will be reporting on smart money trends.
In the meantime, we’ll be cashing baseball tickets all summer long to build bankroll. You can always purchase game day selections right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-888-777-4155. Be sure you ask about early bird offers for 2017 football that generate big savings if you commit up front.
Get to work so you’re ready to go when the games begin. Or take the easy way out and let WORLD CHAMPION HANDICAPPER JIM HURLEY take care of the hard part so you can GET THE MONEY!