Submitted by Winning Edge on Thursday, May 4, 2017 at 12:00 PM
You longtime readers know that I follow the New York sports teams very closely even though I’ve lived out here in Las Vegas for many years. I was born in Mt. Vernon, New York, and grew up a true S.O.B. (son of a butcher!). I still have great sources in the Big Apple who find me winning information year-round in all sports.
Right now, those sources are convinced that the NY Mets are going to have a disappointing season. You know that the Mets are having trouble keeping pitchers healthy. That’s one of the dangers of trying to acquire flame throwers who put a lot of strain on their arms. They get you all the strikeouts in the world until they break down!
Matt Harvey is back from injury this season. But, he’s just a shell of his former self. He currently has an ERA of 5.14, having allowed a whopping SEVEN home runs in just 35 innings (more than one per start). He only has 20 strikeouts in those 35 innings, a very poor ratio. Harvey used to be borderline unhittable in his best starts. Now, he’s a “pitch to contact” mediocrity who’s struggling in a weak division in the weaker of the two leagues.
Worse…he’s not the worst arm in the rotation. Robert Gsellman is making opposing offenses look like gazelles with an ERA of 6.75. The New York’s most dynamic force on the mount was Noah Syndergaard. He has 32 strikeouts this season and only 2 walks! Unfortunately he’s on the Disabled List with arm trouble…the kind of trouble that often takes a long time to heal.
It’s easy to forget when you look at the standings that the Mets actually started the season 7-3. But, they’re just 5-12 since, playing like a team that has no shot to contend. Sure, they can spring some upsets here or there if opponents lose their focus. So far they’ve only played teams from their own division. How outclassed will this team be against contenders from the other NL divisions, or from the superior American League?
The only pitcher I’d trust right now is Jacob DeGrom. He threw well Wednesday night in a win at Atlanta, and is clearly the ace of the staff. But, even with his solid numbers, the Mets are only 3-3 in his starts. They’re still down money because one of the losses came as a -200 favorite.
It’s very unlikely you’ll see me taking the Mets as underdogs with their other starters in the coming weeks unless I have clear “go against” signals on the opposing favorite. I will be looking to fade them at value prices when facing quality opponents from other divisions, or really any opponent who’s in good recent form. We’re talking about a team that currently ranks #29 out of 30 Major League teams in batting average, and #28 in earned run average. It’s going to take some very high underdog prices to create value with the Mets!
I know many of you are just now getting into baseball. You go crazy during football season. You have a lot of fun with March Madness. Then, you take April off because the NBA and MLB just don’t get your juices flowing in the same way. But, now you’re bored out of your mind and anxious to get back in action because the NBA Playoffs are heating up, the Triple Crown horse races are about to start, and you keep hearing about how much money other people are making betting the bases.
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